1. ``I think you should be more explicit here in step two...''

2. INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH DESIGN Stephen Gorard s.gorard@bham.ac.uk http://www.tlrp.org/capacity/ rcbn.html http://trials-pp.co.uk http://streamingportal.multis tream.co.uk/ngflcymru/eng_ webstream_pres02.htm

3. The argument for research design A key ethical concern for those funding, conducting or using publicly-funded social science research must be the quality of the research, and the security of the conclusions drawn This approach to research ethics calls for appropriate scepticism to be used more widely – the warranting principle Traditional research methods training and ‘experts’ are not enhancing quality in this warranting way. Working towards an ideal design can be an important part of any research enterprise, even where that design is not possible It is helpful to consider the research enterprise as a cycle of complementary phases and activities, because this illustrates how all methods can have an appropriate place in the full cycle of research

4. Interviews involved 15 parents of primary school children (p.85). ‘a majority of the working-class parents concurred with their child… a significant deviation from this class trend was mothers of mainly black working-class boys’ (p.90). Reay, D. and Lucey, H. (2000) Children, school choice and social differences, Educational Studies, 26, 1, 83-100

5. Interviews involved 15 parents of primary school children (p.85). ‘a majority of the working-class parents concurred with their child… a significant deviation from this class trend was mothers of mainly black working-class boys’ (p.90). Class? working-class and at least one other Sex of parent? male/female Ethnicity? black and at least one other Sex of child? male/female If we assume equal distribution of categories…. ‘majority of the working-class parents’ could be 4 cases, ‘mothers of mainly black working-class boys’ could not even be one case. Reay, D. and Lucey, H. (2000) Children, school choice and social differences, Educational Studies, 26, 1, 83-100

6. ‘According to the LSE, the extra places made available by the expansion of universities in the Eighties and Nineties have largely been filled by students from better-off backgrounds’ (http://www.suttontrust.com/press068.asp).http://www.suttontrust.com/press068.asp 'The comprehensive system was brought in to try to improve social mobility, but the opposite has happened' Sir Peter Lampl (http://www.suttontrust.com/press068.asp).http://www.suttontrust.com/press068.asp International comparisons indicate that intergenerational mobility in Britain is of the same order of magnitude as in the US, but that these countries are substantially less mobile than Canada and the Nordic countries. Intergenerational mobility fell markedly over time in Britain, with there being less mobility for a cohort of people born in 1970 compared to a cohort born in 1958. Source: Blanden, Machin and Gregg (2005) Intergenerational mobility in Europe and North America, London: Centre for Economic Performance, p.2

7. Internationally comparable estimates of intergenerational mobility CountrySons bornSons earning measure Measure of parental status Partial correlation Britain1970Age 30Average parental 1980+1986.271 Norway1958Average 1992+1999 Father 1974.139 Denmark1958-1960Average 1998+2000 Father 1980.143 Sweden1962Average 1996+1999 Father 1975.143 Finland1958-1960Average 1995+2000 Father 1975.147 Source: Blanden, Machin and Gregg (2005) Intergenerational mobility in Europe and North America, London: Centre for Economic Performance, p.6

8. Table 3: Transition Matrix for Britain, Sons Born in 1958 Sons’ earnings quartile aged 33 in 1991 Bottom 2nd3rdTop Bottom parent quartile (when son aged 16).31.28.23.17 Source: Blanden, Machin and Gregg (2005) Intergenerational mobility in Europe and North America, London: Centre for Economic Performance, p.8 Table 4: Transition Matrix for Britain, Sons Born in 1970 Sons’ earnings quartile aged 30 in 2000 Bottom 2nd3rdTop Bottom parent quartile (when son aged 16).38.25.21.16

9. The format of a warrant as a syllogism Observation/Data: This is an A Conclusion:Therefore, this is B

10. The format of a warrant as a syllogism Explicit Warrant:All As are B Observation/Data: This is an A Conclusion:Therefore, this is B

11. An effect of education? p.238 – ‘The data are based on the entire population of schools… Consequently, the results can be considered as representative of the whole population of pupils who take both KS3 and GCSE exams’. Multi-level model of the effect of single-sex teaching. p.246 – ‘The effect of school type is highly significant’ Malacova, E. (2007) Effects of single-sex education on progress in GCSE, Oxford Review of Education, 33, 2, 233-259

12. Contradictory trends Between 1994 and 2004, reports of studies using a researcher manipulated intervention declined from 45% to 33% in the US. But causal statements in non-intervention studies grew from 34% to 43%. In particular, complex statistical approaches such as HLM (MLM) and structural equation modelling were routinely misunderstood by researchers as testing causation. Robinson, D., Levin, J., Thomas, G., Pituch, K. and Vaughn, S. (2007) The incidence of ‘causal’ statements in teaching-and-learning research journals, American Educational Research Journal, 44, 2, 400-413

13. Impact of feedback? Using national data and multi-level modelling to compare the progress of schools given performance feedback by NFER. p.102 – ‘Although no actual samples have been drawn… Statistical checks were carried out and no significant difference between the groups was found’ [i.e. in existing background measures]. p.103 – ‘Schools who participated in PASS showed a significant difference (p<0.05) in attainment compared to those who received feedback as part of another project. Hammond, P. and Yeshanew, T. (2007) The impact of feedback on school performance, Educational Studies, 33, 2, 99-113

14. A school effect? Looks at successive years of positive value-added scores in one England district, 1993-2002. An improving school is one where VA increases in successive years p.271- ‘the pupil intake and time trend explanatory variables included in the fixed part of the value-added model (Model A) were statistically significant (at 0.05 level)’. p.261 – ‘it appears that only one in 16 schools managed to improve continuously for more than four years at some point over the decade in terms of value-added’. Thomas, S., Peng, WJ. And Gray, J. (2007) Modelling patterns of improvement over time: value-added trends in English secondary school performance across ten cohorts, Oxford Review of Education, 33, 3, 261-295

15. Result of academisation? DfES - We expect that all Academies will make steady upward progress… Good teaching, excellent facilities and motivated pupils will deliver real improvements in educational standards. BBC - The government has released GCSE figures from three of its new flagship Academies in England. All the schools, which were set up in deprived areas, showed remarkable improvements in results. Bexley Business Academy 1997199819992000200120022003 Percentage eligible for FSM 53495250494642 GCSE points per candidate -2320 22 23

16. Back to the Department for Children, Schools and Families LA : Nottingham, City of Greenwood Dale School Sneinton Boulevard Nottingham Nottinghamshire NG2 4GL 0115 9103200 MIXED Key Stage 2 to 4 Contextual Value Added Measure Key Stage 2 to 4 contextual value added measure1068.6 Upper limit of CVA confidence interval1077.2 Lower limit of CVA confidence interval1059.9 Coverage indicator - % of students included in Key Stage 2 to 4 CVA93% Achievement and attainment tables

17. Sources of errors in CVA Missing data - examples over 15% of KS4 PLASC missing one of FSM, sex, ethnicity over 5% of KS4 NPD have no equivalent for KS2 over 10% of PLASC records unmatched in NPD Incorrect data – examples coding (neither male nor female) entry/transcription storage (dropout) storage (binary conversion) Measurement error – examples IDACI and the ecological fallacy Validity of assessment, marking and moderation Definitions such as SEN, ethnicity, or first language

18. Propagation of errors in CVA Imagine a pupil with a predicted KS4 of 100 and an actual score of 110 Imagine that all scores are only 90% correct – a conservative view The predicted score really lies between 90 and 110 The actual score really lies between 99 and 121 CVA calculates a residual of +10 The real residual is between -11 and +31 We do not even know if the pupil has done better or worse than expected

19. The link between KS2 points and GCSE benchmark, secondary schools in England, 2004 Correlation of +0.87 Source: Gorard, S. (2006) Value-added is of little value, Journal of Educational Policy, 21, 2, 233-241

20. The link between GCSE benchmark and DfES KS2 to GCSE value-added, secondary schools in England, 2004 Correlation of +0.84 Source: Gorard, S. (2006) Value-added is of little value, Journal of Educational Policy, 21, 2, 233-241

21. Guess what? Secondary data analysis Feminist theory and approaches The role of theory Ethnogaphy Working overseas Adult learning Discourse analysis ………….

22. Outline of a full cycle of research