1. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Mid American Energy Spring Flood Outlook February 16, 2010 Jeff Zogg

2. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA TopicsTopics Outlook at-a-glanceOutlook at-a-glance DefinitionsDefinitions Current conditions (briefly)Current conditions (briefly) Latest spring food outlookLatest spring food outlook QuestionsQuestions

3. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Outlook at-a-glance High risk of significant flooding in northwest Iowa.High risk of significant flooding in northwest Iowa. –Also concerned about flooding in southeast Iowa—Mississippi River and its tributaries. –At least near to above normal risk of flooding statewide. Above normal risk of flooding from ice jams.Above normal risk of flooding from ice jams. Higher than normal risk of flooding also in areas that have little to no snow cover.Higher than normal risk of flooding also in areas that have little to no snow cover. The flooding potential will be more sensitive than normal to the occurrence and timing of weather events such as rapid warm ups and heavy precipitation.The flooding potential will be more sensitive than normal to the occurrence and timing of weather events such as rapid warm ups and heavy precipitation.

4. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA DefinitionsDefinitions

5. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA DefinitionsDefinitions Stage / Gage heightStage / Gage height –The level of the water surface of a stream above an established datum at a given location. The established datum may be a local elevation or sea level. ReachReach –A section of stream between an upstream and downstream location, for which the stage or flow measured at a point somewhere along the section (e.g., gaging station or forecast point) is representative of conditions in that section of river or stream.

6. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA DefinitionsDefinitions Bankfull stageBankfull stage –An established gage height at a given location, above which a rise in water surface will cause the river or stream to overflow the river bank somewhere in the corresponding reach. Flood stageFlood stage –An established gage height for a given location at which a rise in water surface level begins to create a hazard to lives, property or commerce. The issuance of flood (or in some cases flash flood) warnings is linked to flood stage. Not necessarily the same as bankfull stage.

7. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA DefinitionsDefinitions Minor floodingMinor flooding –Minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat. Moderate floodingModerate flooding –Some inundation of structures and roads near stream. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations. Major floodingMajor flooding –Extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.

8. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA DefinitionsDefinitions Record floodingRecord flooding –Flooding which equals or exceeds the highest stage or discharge observed at a given site during the period of record keeping. The highest stage on record is not necessarily above the other three flood categories – it may be within any of them or even less than the lowest. Stage – flood category relationship

9. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Current conditions

10. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Average temperatures

11. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Average temperatures since 1/25/10

12. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA PrecipitationPrecipitation

13. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Precipitation since 1/25/10

14. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Snow pack—now

15. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Snow pack—now

16. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Snow pack—now

17. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Snow pack—historical (2009)

18. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Snow pack—historical (2008)

19. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Stream levels—now 14-day average flow

20. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Ground frost Observed frost depth

21. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Soil moisture—now Percentile key ~1: near record low <10: much below normal 10 -24: below normal 25-75: normal 76-90: above normal >90: much above normal ~99: near record high Soil moisture percentiles

22. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Soil moisture—recent Percentile key ~1: near record low <10: much below normal 10 -24: below normal 25-75: normal 76-90: above normal >90: much above normal ~99: near record high Soil moisture percentiles— December 2009

23. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Latest spring flood outlook

24. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Assumptions / notes This outlook assumes near normal temperatures and precipitation (i.e., climatology) during the outlook period.This outlook assumes near normal temperatures and precipitation (i.e., climatology) during the outlook period. –If conditions are not near normal then the probabilities in is outlook may not be valid. For example, if above normal precipitation is expected during the outlook period, then the probabilities in this outlook may be too low.For example, if above normal precipitation is expected during the outlook period, then the probabilities in this outlook may be too low. –Outlook assumes near normal through late April. Official temperature outlook  near to above normal.Official temperature outlook  near to above normal. Official precipitation outlook  no strong trend signal.Official precipitation outlook  no strong trend signal.

25. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Assumptions / notes Ice jamsIce jams –Any ice jams which do occur may result in locally higher river stages and rapid river rises. This outlook does not take into account potential flooding from ice jams. Any flooding from ice jams would be above and beyond the flooding potential indicated in this outlook.

26. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Temp & precip outlook through late April

27. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA El Nino—now

28. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA El Nino—forecast Decreasing El Nino with time

29. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Median (50% chance) flood category

30. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Risk of minor flooding West 1/3 of Iowa (Missouri River basin) East 2/3 of Iowa (Mississippi River basin)

31. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Risk of moderate flooding West 1/3 of Iowa (Missouri River basin) East 2/3 of Iowa (Mississippi River basin)

32. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Risk of major flooding West 1/3 of Iowa (Missouri River basin) East 2/3 of Iowa (Mississippi River basin)

33. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Detail—Waterloo Service Center  90-day stage exceedance probability Weekly stage exceedance probability 

34. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Detail—Two Rivers Service Center  90-day stage exceedance probability Weekly stage exceedance probability 

35. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Final thoughts

36. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Final thoughts Most homeowners’ insurance policies do not cover flood-related losses.Most homeowners’ insurance policies do not cover flood-related losses. –To cover flood-related losses, flood insurance must typically be purchased. This is in addition to homeowners insurance. –Disaster assistance, if it’s available, is typically a loan that you must repay with interest. –In most cases, flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period before it becomes effective. –Visit http://www.floodsmart.gov/ for more information. http://www.floodsmart.gov/

37. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Final thoughts Will we see another “2008”?Will we see another “2008”? –A big factor in 2008 was the heavy rainfall from May-June. –High-end events such as the 2008 floods typically result from a sequence of additive factors. While one factor by itself may not lead to a high-end event, the combination of factors elevates the risk of a high-end event. –Factors which contribute to significant flooding this spring are lining up. –This does NOT automatically mean that we’ll have a repeat of 2008 though. We could luck out this spring—the flooding may be less severe than our outlook indicates. But, the risk of flooding is elevated so we need to watch things closely.

38. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Final thoughts Spring flood outlook scheduleSpring flood outlook schedule –1st Outlook: Friday, January 29, 2010. –2nd Outlook: Friday, February 19, 2010. –3rd Outlook: Friday, March 5, 2010. –4th Outlook (Optional): Friday, March 26, 2010.

39. National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA QuestionsQuestions Contact information: jeff.zogg@noaa.gov 515-270-4501 http://www.weather.gov/desmoines