1. Inés Bustillo Director ECLAC Office in Washington Third meeting of the Interamerican Commission for Social Development 6 April 2010 – OAS – Washington DC

2. Outline I.Impact of the crisis a.Pre-crisis b.Crisis c.Policy measures II.Scenario post-2009: gaps to fill III.Vulnerabilities and natural disasters

3. Pre-crisis

4. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PUBLIC SPENDING TREND AND TOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP (Percentage) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on data on social spending.

5. EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC SPENDING BY SECTOR, 1990-1991 TO 2006-2007 /a (Percentage of GDP) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of information from the Commission’s social expenditure database. a/ Weighted average of the countries.

6. Crisis

7. Percentage of population Millions of persons EVOLUTION OF POVERTY AND INDIGENCE a/, 1980 – 2009 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the relevant countries. a Estimate for 18 countries of the region, plus Haiti. The figures shown above the bars are the percentage and total number of poor persons (indigent plus non-indigent poor). Indigent Non-indigent poor Indigent Non-indigent poor

8. COMPARISON BETWEEN PER CAPITA GDP AND THE POVERY RATE, 1980-2008 /a (US$ and percentages of the population) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries and official figures. a Weighted averages.

9. Responses

10. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). a/ Conditional transfer programmes. INSTRUMENTS USED TO TACKLE THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS Monetary transfers PensionsUnemployment benefitsFamily allowances Other direct monetary transfers (CTPs a solidarity grants, etc.) Increases in the value of pensions Extension of the coverage of non-contributory pensions One-off bonus payments to supplement very low pensions Extension of the duration of unemployment benefits Broadening of eligibility criteria Creation of partial and flexible unemployment insurance schemes Increase in the value of the allowances Extension of programme coverage One-off bonus payments for family allowance beneficiaries Increase in the value of allowances Extension of programme coverage Sectors traditionally targeted by social policy EducationHealthHousingFood Increased resources and supplies for school meal programmes and support to cover education expenses Elimination of co-payments or subsidies for medicines Expansion of services and infrastructure Construction of low- income housing Home-loan subsidies Rural nutrition programmes Expansion of hand-outs of staple food items and support for food programmes Employment and labour market policies Credit, facilities and subsidies for microenterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) Increases in the minimum wage Public investment in social infrastructure Direct job creation Extension of credit to those eligible for microloans Support for SMEs (tax exemptions and credit) Basic servicesTransport Creation of more or new subsidies Targeting of subsidies Increase in general or targeted subsidies Creation of subsidies for new population groups

11. Scenario post-2009

12. POPULATION BY MAJOR AGE GROUPS, 1975-2050 (Percentages ) Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, Population estimates and projections, 2008. Convergence point, at which the older population begins to outweigh children + - -

13. Gaps to fill Procyclical spending Impact of social spending Social Protection Fiscal policy and progressiveness

14. ANNUAL VARIATION IN PUBLIC SOCIAL SPENDING AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT a/ (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of information from the Commission’s social expenditure database. a/ Weighted average of the countries.

15. WEIGHT OF THE DIFFERENT TRANSFERS IN THE PER CAPITA INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS, AROUND 2008 (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries.

16. Vulnerabilities and natural disasters

17. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SUMMARY OF ECLAC VALUED DISASTERS, 1973-2007

18. THE CARIBBEAN: SUMMARY OF ECLAC VALUED DISASTERS, 1975-2007 AND 2000-2007

19. CENTRAL AMERICA: SUMMARY OF ECLAC VALUED DISASTERS, 1975-2007 AND 2000-2007

20. ANDEAN COMMUNITY: SUMMARY OF ECLAC VALUED DISASTERS, 1982-2007

21. Type DisastersDeathsAffected populationEconomic impact No.%Persons% %Millions US$% Climate3779642552 375 532781 088.4011 Geological81737832239 7488200.002 Health2414412415 925149 008.9787 Total471001 1641003 031 20510010 297.38100 Source: ECLAC based on data from ECLAC, ReliefWeb, EM-DAT and national sources. * Preliminary data up to 6 Dicember 2009. PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT OF THE DISASTER IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN IN 2009*