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Page 1© Crown copyright HadISST2: progress and plans Nick Rayner, 14 th March 2007.

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1 Page 1© Crown copyright HadISST2: progress and plans Nick Rayner, 14 th March 2007

2 Page 2© Crown copyright Aim of the presentation  To present our ideal HadISST2 in the context of recent progress  To quantify the resources required for this ideal and the resources that we have  To ask for your input in helping to prioritise the improvements we make

3 Page 3© Crown copyright HadISST1 (Rayner et al, 2003)  Monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1°x1° grid from 1871  SST anomalies reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space OI procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations.  Sea ice fields made more homogeneous by compensating passive microwave-based concentrations for surface melt effects and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data.  SSTs near sea ice estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. Data are available from http://www.hadobs.org

4 Page 4© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

5 Page 5© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

6 Page 6© Crown copyright Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Different user communities require different spatial and temporal resolutions  need a flexible analysis system  HadSST2 is produced by such a flexible system (Rayner et al, 2006) 5°x5° 1°x1° 3.75°x2.5° 0.5°x0.5°

7 Page 7© Crown copyright Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  We have begun to develop a flexible system to apply Reduced Space Optimum Interpolation (RSOI), as used in HadISST1 (Rayner et al, 2003)  There are limits as to how fine a resolution the data will support, which will vary in time and space  With the extra data available since HadISST1 and using RSOS we suggest that a 5-day analysis is feasible back to the late 1940s.  The best-case spatial resolution will be higher than in HadISST1, but tests are needed to determine it

8 Page 8© Crown copyright Diurnal temperature range Hourly drifting buoy observations binned by local time, gridded, then fitted to empirical function Kennedy, Brohan and Tett (2007)

9 Page 9© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

10 Page 10© Crown copyright Homogeneous and fully bias corrected SST  HadSST2 includes updated “bucket” corrections through 1941  Evidence for requirement for some post-1941 bucket corrections  Modern data mix requires application of corrections between ships, buoys and satellite data sources (Pathfinder AVHRR and (A)ATSR).

11 Page 11© Crown copyright Relative biases in modern SST data Ships – ATSR2 Drifters – ATSR2

12 Page 12© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

13 Page 13© Crown copyright Fully quantified SST uncertainties  Rayner et al (2006) quantified uncertainties due to sampling and measurement error and due to bucket corrections through 1941  Calculate uncertainties on new bias corrections  Calculate uncertainties on underlying climatology  Comprehensive uncertainty estimates should allow us to generate multiple realisations of HadISST2

14 Page 14© Crown copyright Relative contributions of sampling/measurement and bias correction uncertainties Sampling/measurement (°C)Bias correction (°C) Combined (°C) Ratio bias:samp Sept 1938

15 Page 15© Crown copyright Homogeneous and fully bias corrected sea ice  Revisit work of Rayner et al (2003) for HadISST1  A reanalysis of the SMMR-SSM/I period is underway in collaboration with EUMETSAT OSISAF and NSIDC. This will feed directly into HadISST2.  Summer melt bias should be re-addressed.  Prior to satellite era, sea ice charts are used to define the concentration fields. Bias corrections between these and satellite data to be defined.

16 Page 16© Crown copyright Quantify uncertainties in sea ice record  SMMR-SSM/I reanalysis project includes calculation of uncertainties in retrievals due to atmospheric and surface emissivity effects  There is hope for a funding opportunity in the U.S. to start to look at the uncertainties in the sea ice chart data  New bias corrections between passive microwave and charts will have uncertainties

17 Page 17© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

18 Page 18© Crown copyright Meaningful information everywhere  Improve reconstruction of Southern Ocean prior to 1982  Improve specification of near ice SST  Some periods currently have sea ice climatology in the Arctic in HadISST1, these will be replaced by data from GDSIDB and the ACSYS chart collection  Try again to identify sources of sea ice data for the Antarctic prior to 1973 and/or seek alternative solutions.  Improve lakes and inland seas

19 Page 19© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

20 Page 20© Crown copyright Updated both in near real time and as improved information comes in  Update data must be carefully sourced  Plan to make new releases as data are digitised or QCed in delayed mode  In both cases, bias corrections must be developed prior to ingestion

21 Page 21© Crown copyright Ideal HadISST2  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

22 Page 22© Crown copyright Fully integrated with other Met Office activities  Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA)  Global, real-time, high-resolution SST and sea ice analysis system  Uses satellite data provided by the GHRSST project, together with in situ observations.  Analysis uses a variant of optimal interpolation (OI)  Analysis is produced daily at a resolution of 1/20° (approx. 5km).

23 Page 23© Crown copyright OSTIA analysis for 6 th March 2007

24 Page 24© Crown copyright Fully integrated with other Met Office activities  We plan to:  Use common input data streams  Share QC systems  Preserve different analysis methodologies

25 Page 25© Crown copyright Resources  Our ideal HadISST2 requires of the order 7 person years’ effort, excluding any ongoing updating.  We plan to release HadISST2 in 2010/11.  We currently have 4 person years’ effort allocated to the work, but there may be opportunities for more.  We must prioritise to ensure delivery.

26 Page 26© Crown copyright Summary  We aim to produce HadISST2 by 2010/11  Based on new understanding of the data, we can look forward to the following improvements relative to HadISST1:  Flexible spatial and temporal resolution  Homogeneous, i.e. fully bias corrected SST and sea ice  Fully quantified uncertainties  Meaningful information everywhere  Updated both in near real time and as improved delayed mode information comes in  Fully integrated with other Met Office activities, e.g. OSTIA

27 Page 27© Crown copyright References  Rayner, N.A. et al, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. D14, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670  Rayner, N.A. et al, 2006: Improved analysis of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 data set, J. Climate, 19, 446-469.  Kennedy, Brohan and Tett, 2007: A global climatology of the diurnal variations in sea-surface temperature and implications for MSU temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, L05712, doi:10.1029/2006GL028920

28 Page 28© Crown copyright Questions & Answers

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