1. Revenue Risk, Crop Insurance and Forward Contracting C ory Walters and Richard Preston cgwalters@uky.edu 859-421-6354 University of Kentucky cgwalters@uky.edu

2. Motivation Agricultural production is risky Revenue is unknown when making the investment decision Tools exist to reduce the chance of revenue < cost For commodity price - futures market (i.e., forward contracting) For yield - crop insurance Revenue policy interacts with futures market Higher costs (same acreage) In 2006 it took $330,000 to produce a crop and 2013 it takes over a million dollars.

3. Motivation, The Producer Farms in Hardin County Kentucky. 32 years of experience. Before returning to the farm Richard was a physicist at Los Alamos National Lab. Farm decisions are based upon knowledge. Farm size, field location (soil type, distance from farm), planting date (function of soil type and yield history), hybrids are all taken into account Expected profit = $266,000. Vacation time! Is this useful information? Of course not. Must look at farm through the eyes of uncertainty

4. Modeling 2013 Revenue Uncertainty Corn production. We plan on adding other farm Revenue = yield*price Producer yield data = de-trended field level over 32 years Price data = December 2013 futures market options prices Cost = current producer corn production costs for 2013 Important: Cost is a function of yield = $.58 per bushel.

5. Objective Function Crop Income = yield*Price + Crop Insurance(yield, coverage level, unit type, insurance type (base price, harvest price), premium) + hedged yield*hedged price + hedging cost (interest on margin calls) – Complex! – Hedging = futures hedging using producer margin account – Account for yield and price relationship Correlation is approximately -.187 Relationship depends on location within distribution – If there is a low yield the chances of a higher price are much better than if yield was average » Copulas to adjust relationship as we move away from the average of the distribution

6. The Model Software: Analytica Monte Carol simulation through influence diagrams view of models 30,000 samples Income is derived from randomly selecting farm level yield

7. The Model

8. Trend Adjustment Hedging risk – Margin calls Price risk Uncertainty Average Price Risk and Uncertainty

9. December 2013 Futures Prices Median = around $5.60 10% chance price is less than $4.00 10% change price is greater than $7.55 or so

10. Farm Yield Farm average = 144.4 bu/acre Yields in 1983 and 2012. Rare events do happen ! Most years expect yields between 110 and 170 bu/acre

11. Farm Corn Yield Median = around 155 bushels per acre 10% chance yield is less than 101 b/ac 10% change yield is greater than 170 b/ac

12. December 2013 Futures Prices Median = around $5.60 10% chance price is less than $4.00 10% change price is greater than $7.55 or so

13. Coverage Level: 80% Revenue Protection (RP) and RP Harvest Price Exclusion Zero Income Crop Income and Insurance With no insurance payments difference is the premium Insurance payments 80% coverage, enterprise units does not guarantee positive income No hedging at this point

14. Insurance payouts Highest coverage level provides the best chance of receiving a payment It also costs the most

15. Revenue Protection, Enterprise Units and 50% Hedged Coverage levels and hedging Benefit when a bad outcome occurs Cost when a bad outcome does not occur

16. Crop Income, Insurance, Hedging Coverage Level: 80% Revenue Protection (RP) and RP Harvest Price Exclusion Hedging: 50% of expected production using futures only KEY: HEDGING PLUS INSURANCE (RP, 80% Coverage Level, Enterprise units), 50% hedged reduces chance of less than zero income by about 13%

17. KEY: At average income RP provides the highest income because it receives the most subsidy dollars. Insurance beats no insurance because of the subsidy – If you farm forever you will get paid more than you paid in. Insurance contract: Revenue protection, 80% coverage level, enterprise units

18. KEY: As forward contracting % grows, rare event risk protection increases as forward contracting increases from 0 to 20% for RP. Between 20 to 60% rare event risk protection remains constant and drops as forward contracting increases past 60% Insurance contract: Revenue protection, 80% coverage level, enterprise units

19. Summary Everyone faces the same futures prices Results are specific to yield risk faced by this farm Location, planting dates, soil types, etc… Results indicate that crop income risk (the very bad rare events) are reduced when using crop insurance For our farm - $292/acre for a 1/100 event Income risk is further reduced by futures hedging For our farm - $39/acre (30% hedged) Combined benefit of $331 per acre

20. Caution Portfolio evaluation March 1 st (Base price just set) to last trading day in November (December futures enter delivery) No storage consideration No carry or basis consideration No continuous hedging decision making No option contracts

21. Revenue Protection, Enterprise Units, No Hedging

22. 2013 Premium Subsidies, in Percent Coverage LevelNon-EnterpriseEnterprise 50%0.670.8 55%0.640.8 60%0.640.8 65%0.590.8 70%0.590.8 75%0.550.77 80%0.480.68 85%0.380.53

23. Crop Income With and Without Insurance Coverage level: 80% Revenue Protection (RP) and RP- Harvest Price Exclusion Insurance

24. Crop Income With and Without Insurance Insurance Coverage Level: 65% Revenue Protection (RP) and RP Harvest Price Exclusion Insurance