1. Climate & Environment, past & future: implications for Sustainable Development John Chappell Research School of Earth Sciences Australian National University

2. Australia State of the Environment 2001 Land degradation is a major contributor of turbidity, nutrients and pesticides to waterways, as well as loss of soil fertility. Large areas of acidic and sodic soils contribute to poor water quality, secondary salinity and loss of ecosystem function. Dryland salinity, a legacy of broadacre land clearing, now affects 5.8 m Ha. By 2050 it is predicted to affect 17 m Ha, including some 2 m Ha of native vegetation. TURNING TO THE “TOP END” The SOIL ----

3. A 6000-year legacy: POTENTIAL ACID SULPHATE cultivation with drainage leads to acidification, drain-water pH of 3-4, fish death etc.

4. Pre-european salting post-european salting Irreversable changes? South Alligator River

5. 30 cm sea-level rise60 cm sea level rise GLOBAL WARMING FORECASTS - SALT FLATS -- SCATTERED MANGROVE -

6. Macrotidal plains Daly RiverVictoria – Lower Keep Alligator – Adelaide rivers Blyth – Glyde rivers, etc Mesotidal plains Lower Roper Macarthur southern Gulf Freshwater wetland Arafura Swamp, etc wetter dryer AT RISK - A SAMPLE

7. Hazard source: Mangrove throughout the South Alligator Plains, 6000 years ago WHY ?

8. warm, cold, wet dry 10,000 years ago THE SOURCE - climate change

9. Last 4 million years Last 400 thousand years GLOBAL CLIMATE DURING HUMAN EVOLUTION GLOBAL CLIMATE DURING HUMAN EVOLUTION warmer colder Last 100,000 years Major extinctions World Aus Eur-Am

10. THE SoE VERDICT - Land degradation... loss of soil fertility... acidic and sodic soils NATURAL REPLENISHMENT - soil production 1 - 50 mm per 1000 years soil turnover 30 - 300 mm per 1000 years

11. Globally speaking - Soil erosion - complex problems, BUDGET LINE - steady-state soil production, Australia some intelligent responses colour - degraded soils

12. Other dimensions - Other dimensions - DROUGHT, FLOOD, FIRE - and connectedness ’82-83, severe drought 1974, major flood

13. Pictures, JG GOLDAMMER, Science 284, 1999; Stats., F. SIEGERT et al., Nature 414, 2001; Map, NASA TOMS satellite data. INDONESIA 1997-98 INDONESIA 1997-98 Percentage fire damage for different land covers. White - moderate; grey - severe; black - total. 5 november 1997 What’s burning?

14. Connectedness: mistakes propagate - 29.09.’97 100% reef death INDONESIA 1997-’98 Sea water not anomalously warm Record red tide over Mentawai Isles Fe fertiliser from huge smoke plume Drillcores from massive corals show no traces of similar events in the past i.e., NOT SEEN BEFORE (work of Nerilie Abram, RSES)

15. under different management

16. ADAPTATION: STABILISATION INNOVATION INTENSIFICATION 10 GLOBALLY, THE COST per capita since 1960 P fertiliser x 2, N fertiliser x 4, pesticides x 3.5 THE GAIN, per capita since 1960: cereals x 1.3

17. priviledge Time taken for population increase of 350,000 India: 1 week Europe: 1 year NT:100 years? goals Zero impact on reserved ecosystems Sustainable agriculture with zero soil degradation Sustainable water use, integrated across agriculture, towns & industries performance indicators “Without fresh thinking and fundamental attitudinal and management changes, the Great Barrier Reef will not survive as we enjoy it today. It will be slowly and continuously degraded both biologically and aesthetically” in conclusion, achieving sustainability depends on community aspirations & commitment integrated knowledge & knowledgeable action