1. Using Statistical Analysis to Target home fire safety visits. EFA 7 th Round Table, Brussels – September 2008

2. About London and London Fire Brigade Size = 1,595 km2 Resident population = 7,517,726 Domestic buildings (homes) = 3,108,044 LFB Budget 2008/09 = £422,336,450 (~€528,809,284) - 1 British pound (GBP) = 1.2521 EURO (EUR) Firefighters = 5,963 Fire engines = 168 (+72 specials) Fire Stations = 112 (including 1 River Station)

3. London incidents 2006/07London Total Incidents152,216 Fires36,686 Special services46,296 False Alarms69,234 Fires per 100,000 people488 Fires in dwellings7,302 Fire deaths46 Fire injuries1,207

4. How LFB is structured

5. About London and London Fire Brigade Some of the highest poverty rates in the UK Second highest unemployment rate in England Annual net migration of people from outside the UK of 190,000 29% of Londoners are from minority ethnic groups, speaking 300 different languages 14 different mainstream religions practiced

6. 40% of Fatal fires were due to smoking People with limited mobility and alcohol impaired are at higher risk 60% of fatal dwelling fires had no smoke alarm Fires occur disproportionately in areas of high social and economic deprivation Often involve the most Vulnerable groups within our community Often involve people from identified vulnerable groups within the community Often involve people from identified vulnerable groups within About London and London Fire Brigade

7. involve people from identified vulnerable groups within the community Often involve people from identified vulnerable groups within the community Vulnerable Groups These people are vulnerable because they: Often live alone and have poor lifestyle habits Live on low incomes and live in accommodation that is either rented or poorly maintained Have limited social contact, (Community nurses and professional carers) Often live in closed cultural or sectarian communities.

8. Home fire safety visits Campaign for free home fire safety visits started 2004 The visits focus on three key areas: Identify and be aware of the potential fire risks within the home Know what to do in order to reduce or prevent those risks Put together an escape plan in case a fire does break out and ensure there are working smoke alarms.

9. To date visits have been made on request. Anyone asking for a visit is given one and free smoke alarms are installed. To meet station targets crews would often visit those easy to reach communities to deliver their home fire safety visits. Home fire safety visits

10. Visits need to be prioritised and targeted 3.9% of homes visited. At current rate, more than 70 years to complete all homes in London Stations need assistance to identify vulnerable groups and know where to find them. A change of emphasis needed 2007/082006/072005/062004/05 121,24444,62036,64528,63011,349

11. Understanding where fires in the home happen Statistical approach to understanding risk Development of Incident Risk Analysis Toolkit (iRAT) Where fires are most likely to happen Statistical regression model (633 local administrative areas) Who fires are most likely to happen to Lifestyle profiling

12. Geographic area risk ranking regression model 70 Factors measured for 633 Wards Multivariate Regression Finds the best combination of factors to explain the Incident Counts of London Wards Incident Counts Forecasted Likelihood = No of Incidents No of Households

13. iRAT ward risk bands - setting thresholds ADFs per 10,000 HH1 ADF per X HH (approx)No. of wards in band Well above average25 <~< 30088 Above average20 < and ≤ 25~400145 Average15 < and ≤ 20~500197 Below average10 < and ≤ 15~666147 Well below average≤ 10~1000 <48

14. Mapped output from the regression model

15. Who fires are most likely to happen to Very little data collected about people who have fires Previous prevention work focused on what we have learnt about fire fatalities Age, mobility, intoxication Or on single variables Deprivation, rented accommodation, poor housing Commercial segmentation data used to approximate for what we don’t know Lifestyle profiles give more meaningful and identifiable risk groups

18. Analysing Mosaic with incidents and casualties

21. Combining Mosaic likelihood and consequence indices GroupLikelihood ratingCasualty ratingAggregated Index I AA 239 F AA 238 J AAA226 H BAAA199 D AA193 B BAAA189 G BAA188 E AA184 C BAA162 K BAA156 A BA 155

22. Combining iRAT ward bands with Mosaic risk groups to create priority postcodes Mosaic risk groupings AAABA iRAT ward risk bandings WAA P1P2P0 AA P1P2P0 A P1P2P0 BA P2P0 WBA P2P0

23. The UK Postcode System Developed to pinpoint small groups of premises for postal delivery purposes Typically a 6 or 7 digit alpha-numeric suffix to all addresses eg. CR4 7SP or SW20 3RX. Groups 5 or 6 premises together in a street or in the case of a block of high rise flats covers the whole block.

24. Using iRAT to identify priority postcodes Ward regression model identifies where ADFs are most likely to occur Mosaic lifestyle profiling identifies who ADFs are most likely to effect Priority postcodes are those that have the lifestyles that are most likely to have fires within the wards that present the most risk

25. How the data is used by firefighters Data simplified into Priority postcodes (P1) Zone Maps and Postcode lists sent to stations Targets set for number of HFSVs completed by each station in P1 areas Aim to complete more within high risk groups by Targeted calling

26. Households within Priority Postcodes

27. London Borough of Croydon

28. London Borough of Hackney

35. Thank you - Questions?