1. Perceived Climate Change Impacts and Exposure Units ASTRA Conference 18-19 May 2006 Klaipeda Jürgen Kropp & Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Results from a case study screening in the Baltic Sea Region

2. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Study Design Objectives There are potentially multiple impacts of climate change – but to which of them should we adapt? Complement scientifc views with stakeholder views Exploration of focal exposure units, possible responses and policy options

3. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Methods and Concepts Semi-structured questionnaire send to 40 partners Conceptual base for structure Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): Impacts, Exposure Unit, Adaptation DPSIR Framework: Driver – Pressure – State – Impact – Response (mitigation, adaptation) Force Field Analysis: Chances, risks, supporting factors, constraining factors. Anticipated information needs Provision of case study context Coding of answers, parallel development of code system Synopsis based on data bank which links the codes

4. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research General Observations Views from stakeholders and scientific reports on potential impacts of climate change are mostly consistent In many cases exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way There seems to be little „strategic“ knowledge on actors and institutions which support or constrain adaptation to climate change Most existing climate change policies are related to Natural hazards National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies Conclusion: Climate Change is still mainly framed in terms of GHG mitigation and impacts

5. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Focal Exposure Units Built environment: Urban area and infrastructure Heating: energy demand, housing conditions. Water supply systems Further: coastal protection, communication, transportation and technical infrastructure, cultural heritage, shore infrastructure, waste dumps. Natural environment: ecosystems Coast: erosion, coastal ecosystems, beaches, shore meadows. Economic Sectors: economic and material losses Tourism: tourism in general, winter tourism. Forestry: forests, municipal parks. Transportation: roads, sea transport, less black-ice, ports, airports. Energy: power lines, hydro power, heating. Further: agriculture, fishery, building sector, industry. Further Actors: Inhabitants and private households Coastal management authorities Further: local adminstration, spatial planning authorities.

6. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Focal Impacts Storms: more frequent storms, high wind speed, stronger storms, higher waves, hurricanes, thunderstorms, related: higher precipitation, storm-surges. Sea-level rise, related: floods. Flooding: rivers, lakes, dams, flash floods, rise of river water level. Storm Surges: sea floods, intensification of storm surges, increased flood risk, high wind speed, waves and water level, storm tides, erosion, related: storms. Precipitation: overall increase, more water in reservoirs, changed water supply, heavy rainfalls, increases in winter/decrease in summer, related: snow, floods, etc. Warm winters: less frequency of winter frost, mild weather in winter, less cold winter, shorter winter.

7. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Actual and Potential Responses and Institutions Communication and knowledge: education of planners and the public, environmental awareness and public relations, availability of relevant information and adaptation research, communication and conflicts between different stakholders (e.g. policy makers, administrations, planners, scientists, rescue services) Spatial planning: land use zoning and identification of affected areas, protection of planned areas, retention areas, legal and economic responsibilities, building restrictions (e.g. hight and ground floor level, shore line) standards for technical infrastructure (e.g. water supply, traffic planning) Local institutions: local administration and departments (e.g. construction, environment, development, coast), services (water, energy, resuce), committees (crisis, investigation), port authorities, environmental centres, compensation of losses National institutions: ministries (e.g. enviroment, building and regional development, forestry, trade and industry, transport and communciation), national environmental protection agency, national strategies (coastal protection, adaptation), national environmental objectives, compensation of losses Further: cooperation between regional and national level, changes in infrastructure, regional institutions, insurances There were more institutions mentioned in only one or two questionnaires

8. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Conclusions I Since knowledge about the extend of many climate change impacts on the local scale is highly uncertain… … such that solutions to this problem have to focus on exposure units, vulnerability analysis and increasing adaptive capacity,… … it is necessary that stakeholders change the problem framing (shifting from impacts to adaptive capacity).

9. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Conclusions II Potential starting points for the development of adaptation policies in the BSR: Urban building activities: Window of opportunity? Adaptation of water supply systems Energy utilities and planning for energy infrastructure Adaptation of transportation infrastructure Integration of climate change into hazard protection policies and coastal protection Development of tourism and forestry

10. Klaus Eisenack Jürgen Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Thank You for Your Attention! Jürgen Kropp Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Telegraphenberg C4 14473 Potsdam Germany Email: kropp@pik-potsdam.de eisenack@pik-potsdam.de