Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010.

Published byHope Osborne Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010

2 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF2 WARNING!!! The following presentation contains graphic and disturbing information. Viewer discretion is advised.

3 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF3 Calculated Risk Reader Poll: GDP Growth 2010

4 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF4 Calculated Risk Reader Poll: Unemployment Rate in 2010

5 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF5 Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

6 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF6 Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions

7 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF7 ADJUSTED SALES TAX REVENUE VS. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TENNESSEE EMPLOYMENT

8 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF8 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

9 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF9 ADJUSTED SALES TAX COLLECTIONS VS. CONSUMER DEBT

10 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF10 ADJUSTED SALES TAX REVENUE VS. AVERAGE SAVINGS RATE

11 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF11 Fannie Mae Conventional Single- Family Serious Delinquency Rates

12 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF12 FY10-11 Budget Outlook ($290M Shortfall in FY09-10) Budgeted General Fund Collections FY09-10 $8,407,200,000 General Fund Available for Reduction $4,245,343,400 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,036,000,000 Additional Shortfall ($290 million) as percentage of General Fund available for reduction 6.8% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 21.6% General Fund revenue growth required in FY10-11 to fund program growth without base reductions exceeding $1,036,000,000 4.4% Total Agency Base Reductions at 2.0% Revenue Growth 26.4% Total Agency Base Reductions at 0% Revenue Growth 30.3% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 10.6% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 16.7% Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000

13 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF13 Budgeted General Fund Collections FY09-10 $8,407,200,000 General Fund Available for Reduction $4,245,343,400 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,146,000,000 Additional Shortfall ($400 million) as percentage of General Fund available for reduction 9.4% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 24.2% General Fund revenue growth required in FY10-11 to fund program growth without base reductions exceeding $1,146,000,000 5.7% Total Agency Base Reductions at 2.0% Revenue Growth 31.6% Total Agency Base Reductions at 0% Revenue Growth 35.5% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 12.5% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 19.3% Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 FY10-11 Budget Outlook ($400M Shortfall in FY09-10)

14 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF14 Actual General Fund Collections in FY08-09 $8,324,789,900 Highest Projected General Fund Collections in FY09-10 $8,254,029,200 Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,369,000,000 Additional shortfall ($623 million) as percentage of general fund available for reduction 15.3% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 30.1% Highest Projected General Fund Collections in FY10-11 $8,443,871,900 Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 10.6% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 18.9% General Fund Available for Reduction $4,084,020,400 FY10-11 Budget Outlook Funding Board Adopted Range Best Case Scenario

15 FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF15 Actual General Fund Collections in FY08-09 $8,324,789,900 Lowest Projected General Fund Collections in FY09-10 $8,129,157,300 Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,538,000,000 Additional shortfall ($623 million) as percentage of general fund available for reduction 19.8% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 34.6% Lowest Projected General Fund Collections in FY10-11 $8,275,482,200 Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 11.3% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 20.7% General Fund Available for Reduction $4,003,358,800 FY10-11 Budget Outlook Funding Board Adopted Range Worst Case Scenario

Download ppt "Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010."

Similar presentations

Metropolitan Transportation Authority July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013 1 MTA 2010 Preliminary Budget July Financial Plan 2010 – 2013.

Metropolitan Transportation Authority July 2009 Financial Plan MTA 2010 Preliminary Budget July Financial Plan 2010 – 2013.
TENNESSEE REVENUE ESTIMATES FISCAL YEARS 2009-10 AND 2010-11 Presentation to the State Funding Board Fiscal Review Committee Staff March 24, 2010.

TENNESSEE REVENUE ESTIMATES FISCAL YEARS AND Presentation to the State Funding Board Fiscal Review Committee Staff March 24, 2010.
State Budgets & The Economy Presentation to the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers Tony Hutchison, Director Oklahoma Office.

State Budgets & The Economy Presentation to the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers Tony Hutchison, Director Oklahoma Office.
County of Orange 1 Current Economy  Recession Officially Ended in June 2009  Slow Growth Projected  Few Signs of “Double Dip”  Primary County Impacts.

County of Orange 1 Current Economy  Recession Officially Ended in June 2009  Slow Growth Projected  Few Signs of “Double Dip”  Primary County Impacts.
Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.

Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.
The Missouri Economy: In Transition or Decline? David M. Mitchell Associate Professor –Dept. of Economics Director—Bureau of Economic Research and the.

The Missouri Economy: In Transition or Decline? David M. Mitchell Associate Professor –Dept. of Economics Director—Bureau of Economic Research and the.
FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY OF STATE GOVERNMENT Presentation Prepared for the Appropriations Committee and the Finance, Revenue, and Bonding Committee by the.

FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY OF STATE GOVERNMENT Presentation Prepared for the Appropriations Committee and the Finance, Revenue, and Bonding Committee by the.
Linden Graber. * What caused the deficit? * How large are projected deficits? * How much reduction is necessary? * How quickly should the deficit be reduced?

Linden Graber. * What caused the deficit? * How large are projected deficits? * How much reduction is necessary? * How quickly should the deficit be reduced?
January 2010 Chuck Essigs – Arizona Association of School Business Officials Changes to the Classroom Site Fund (Prop 301) Budget Impact for FY 2011.

January 2010 Chuck Essigs – Arizona Association of School Business Officials Changes to the Classroom Site Fund (Prop 301) Budget Impact for FY 2011.
2 0 0 22 0 0 2 The Budget Proposal 2002 October 1, 2001.

The Budget Proposal 2002 October 1, 2001.
SENATE BUDGET AND EVALUATION OFFICE Overview of the Georgia State Revenues and Budget Slides are up to date as of 4/29/10. Please note that numbers are.

SENATE BUDGET AND EVALUATION OFFICE Overview of the Georgia State Revenues and Budget Slides are up to date as of 4/29/10. Please note that numbers are.
The School Finance Outlook for 2010-11 and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.

The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.
Lesson 12-1 Fiscal Policy.

Lesson 12-1 Fiscal Policy.
Town of Lantana Budget Workshop June 22, 2009 5:30 PM TOWN OF LANTANA 2009/10BUDGETWORKSHOP.

Town of Lantana Budget Workshop June 22, :30 PM TOWN OF LANTANA 2009/10BUDGETWORKSHOP.
Financial Plan Overview Andrew M. Cuomo, Governor Robert L. Megna, Director of the Budget July 2011 New York State Division of the Budget.

Financial Plan Overview Andrew M. Cuomo, Governor Robert L. Megna, Director of the Budget July 2011 New York State Division of the Budget.
The Great Recession and Tennessee’s Revenue Outlook Bill Fox and Matt Murray UT’s Center for Business and Economic Research October 29, 2009.

The Great Recession and Tennessee’s Revenue Outlook Bill Fox and Matt Murray UT’s Center for Business and Economic Research October 29, 2009.
The Economic Stimulus Package Group B: Bruce Cheng, Michael Guinn, Philip Musterman, Michelle Quach, & Brian Swink.

The Economic Stimulus Package Group B: Bruce Cheng, Michael Guinn, Philip Musterman, Michelle Quach, & Brian Swink.
2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United.

2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United.
The Missouri Economy Where have we been? Where are we? Where are we going? Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Missouri State University.

The Missouri Economy Where have we been? Where are we? Where are we going? Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Missouri State University.
Part 2 Deficit and Debt Chapter 15-2. Chapter Goals  Define the terms deficit, surplus, and debt and distinguish between a cyclical deficit and a structural.

Part 2 Deficit and Debt Chapter Chapter Goals  Define the terms deficit, surplus, and debt and distinguish between a cyclical deficit and a structural.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google