1. IPCC Key conclusions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Bert Metz Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Co-chair IPCC WG III Hearing on Climate Change and Trade, Trade Committee European Parliament, Brussels, June 27, 2007

2. IPCC Summary of IPCC findings on the climate system We’re in the midst of global warming – (0.8 ºC warming so far; warmer than last 1300 years) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are its main cause Warming has increased the risk of extreme events – heat waves, droughts, flooding, intensity of tropical storms Climate change will completely change the world if unchecked – 2-7 ºC global warming by 2100, risk of “surprises” Sea level rise: –20th Century: 15-20 cm –Current rate: 3 cm per decade –Until 2100: probably < 1 m –Centuries: several meters likely –Regional variation due to ocean circulation

3. IPCC The impacts of climate change Impacts are already seen worldwide (changes in ecosystems, instability in permafrost and mountain regions, changes in river run-off, heat wave mortality, agriculture yields,etc) With further change risks will increase –Water –Ecosystems –Food –Coasts –Health Overall economic damage can be substantial Developing countries most vulnerable Adaptation not always possible and potentially very costly

4. IPCC What does it take to control climate change? Stabilise concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere through drastic reductions of global emissions (UNFCCC, article 2) Implement technological options now Global cooperation essential Strong policy response needed Climate policy alone cannot solve the climate problem

5. IPCC The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go down Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

6. IPCC Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels [1] [1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM]. [2][2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150. [3][3] Ranges correspond to the 15 th to 85 th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO 2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO 2 -only scenarios. Stababilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global Mean temperature increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year global CO 2 needs to peak Year global CO 2 emissions back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 global CO 2 emissions compared to 2000 445 – 4902.0 – 2.42000 - 20152000- 2030-85 to -50 490 – 5352.4 – 2.82000 - 20202000- 2040-60 to -30 535 – 5902.8 – 3.22010 - 20302020- 2060-30 to +5 590 – 7103.2 – 4.02020 - 20602050- 2100+10 to +60 710 – 8554.0 – 4.92050 - 2080+25 to +85 855 – 11304.9 – 6.12060 - 2090+90 to +140

7. IPCC All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute (end-use based) Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

8. IPCC Implications for international agreements

9. IPCC What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? Trajectories towards stabilization levels (ppm CO 2 -eq) Median GDP reduction[1][1] (%) Range of GDP reduction [2][2] (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3][3] (percentage points) 590-7100.2-0.6 – 1.2< 0.06 535-5900.60.2 – 2.5<0.1 445-535[4][4]Not available< 3< 0.12 [1][1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2][2] The median and the 10 th and 90 th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3][3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030. [4][4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines. Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages

10. IPCC An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes. Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change” happens) At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

11. IPCC Investments Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions. The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive. Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10% It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

12. IPCC Non-climate policies can significantly influence GHG emissions Macro-economic policy: taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies, structural adjustment Trade policy: “ embodied carbon ”, removing barriers for low- carbon products, domestic energy sources, border tax adjustments Energy security policy : efficient energy use, domestic energy sources (low-high carbon) Access to modern energy: bioenergy, poverty tariffs Air quality policy: clean fuel Bank lending policies : lending for efficiency/ renewables, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries Insurance policy: Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products

13. IPCC The Summary for Policy Makers, the Technical Summary and the full Report (subject to editing) can be downloaded from www.mnp.nl/ipcc Further information: IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: ipcc3tsu@mnp.nl