1. Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012

2. Green River Basin Upper Green Duchesne Yampa Dry everywhere Extreme dry conditions in Yampa, Duchesne

3. Upper Green: Basin Conditions Precipitation% of Average October120 November115 December48 January130 February112 March48 April64 May43 June5 July104 Water Year71 103% 98% 83%

4. 508 KAF 70% ESPSWSNRCSCOOR % Jan54555354055076 Feb665707685 94 Mar725750730 101 April67066566066592 May590528538 74 Jun49748847848867 FONTENELLE RESERVOIR 2012 MAE Jan : 42 KAF Feb: 177 KAF Mar: 222 KAF Apr: 157 KAF May: 30 KAF June: 20 KAF

5. 570 KAF 58% ESPSWSNRCSCOOR % Jan650753760 78 Feb860932880 90 Mar9401000945 96 April800 870 89879581083 May69871962063064 Jun57461655056057 FLAMING GORGE 2012 MAE Jan : 190 KAF Feb: 310 KAF Mar: 375 KAF Apr: 240 KAF May: 64 KAF June: 11 KAF

6. FLAMING GORGE LOCAL: (Flaming Gorge Inflow-Fontenelle Inflow) Observed Local 62 KAF/24% 4 th Lowest ObsAverage% April 38.34880% May 23.17929% June -0.7920% July 1.2343% ESP local too high….

7. Yampa: Basin Conditions Precipitation 2012 % of Average 2002 % of Average October96110 November9487 December2865 January6256 February12651 March3184 April5557 May2419 June318 July11168 Water Year6067 66% 80% 52%

8. 337 KAF 36% Yampa nr Maybell ESPSWSNRCSCOOR % Jan700693700 75 Feb660636635 68 Mar730713715 76 April54052048550053 May410418398 43 Jun365395368 39 #1 1977: 261 KAF #2 2002: 269 KAF #3 1934: 278 KAF #4 2012: 337 KAF 2012 MAE Jan : 363 KAF Feb: 298 KAF Mar: 378 KAF Apr: 163 KAF May: 61 KAF June: 31 KAF

9. April-July Volume (KAF)Historical Volume (KAF)% Average2012 L-HMin (KAF)Min Year Yampa abv Stagecoach3.5215%2/231.462002 Yampa at Steamboat Springs10540%4/105822002 Elk near Milner17354%3/431352002 Elkhead Creek abv Long Gulch20.328%2/1714.82002 Yampa at Maybell33736%4/962611977 Little Snake nr Slater7347%4/65511977 Little Snake nr Savery9026%1/23902012 Little Snake nr Lily11132%4/90591934 White near Meeker11139%4/108811977 White near Watson9835%4/84721977 All April-July Volumes are in bottom five of historical records!

10. Duchesne: Basin Conditions 67 %53% 72% Precipitation% of Average October146 November84 December39 January72 February92 March62 April60 May16 June2 July174 Water Year76

11. 31 KAF 42% 31KAF 47% Neola and Lake Fork -Over forecast issues (~20-30% over forecast in May) -Same pattern at all points on the south slope of the Uintas 2012 MAE Jan : 25 KAF Feb: 21 KAF Mar: 21 KAF Apr: 19 KAF May: 13 KAF June: 5 KAF

12. Upper Colorado Basin Mainstem Gunnison Dolores Extreme dry

13. Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions

14. April Forecast 900 KAF 38% Colorado - Cameo ESPSWS raw pref rtd NRCS raw pref rtd COOR %Jan19101755 1800p 1670 1700p 175074% Feb19501810 1830p 1730 1730p 175074% Mar19301725 1790p 1760 1760p 176075% April1435670 1300p 1030 1280p 128054% May1070600 1030p 990 1030p 103044% Jun935895 930p 885 930p 93039%

15. Upper Colorado 2012 Volumes April - July 2012Historical 2011 H-L Ranking Volume (kaf)% avg 2012 L-H RankingMin (kaf)Year Lake Granby11652%3 / 858820021 Willow Creek Res2043%6 / 939.520021 Fraser - Winter Park8.2442%2 / 768.2120022 Williams Fork Res3941%2 / 533020022 Dillon Res6037%2 / 535420022 Green Mountain Res11241%2 / 759320022 Wolford Mountain Res2139%3 / 3110.120021 Colorado - Kremmling35141%2 / 5024620021 Eagle - Gypsum13340%3 / 6611920022 Colorado - Dotsero55039%2 / 7241620021 Ruedi Res5641%3 / 435020022 Roaring Fork - Glenwood26238%3 / 4320319773 Colorado -Glenwood85140%3 / 4666420022 Colorado - Cameo90038%3 / 7972420022 Platuea Ck - Cameo3024%3 / 3713.719778 Colorado - Cisco150334%2 / 32105720025 Lake Powell206329%3 / 4996420023

16. Gunnison Basin Conditions

17. 2012: 206 KAF (31% of average) ESPSWS (route) NRCS Statics COOR % Jan43946045545067 Feb46745846545067 Mar46244744045067 April38434027533049 May25322723423034 Jun20118623819629

18. 2012: 120 KAF (41% of average) ESPSWS (Route) NRCS Statics COOR % Jan222230220- 245 23580 Feb24122523022576 Mar22524325024081 April19614218415051 May14912717013847 Jun121115 39

19. San Juan Basin Dry, but not quite as extreme as further north

20. San Juan Basin Conditions

21. 2012: 230 KAF (55 % of average) ESPSWSNRCS Statics COOR % Jan35540037035080 Feb35040034535080 Mar385400375 90 April31422729527566 May273186219-27423055 Jun24419925623055

22. Forecast Evolution Plot 2012: 107 KAF (55 % of average)

23. Lake Powell

24. Lake Powell Basin Conditions

25. 5050 71% 3500 49% 2360 33% 2063 KAF 29% April Forecast Lake Powell ESPSWS raw pref rtd NRCS raw pref rtd COOR %Jan51406050 5000p 4890 5150p 505071% Feb5290--- 5100p 5020 5050p 505071% Mar55305000 5200p 5250 5300p 530074% April39401500 3500p 2870 3500p 350049% May2540--- 2360p 2260 2260p 236033% Jun2120--- 2010p 201028%

26. 2063 KAF / 29% (#3 / 49) 1128 KAF / 38% (#4 / 108) 375 KAF / 34% (#6 / 89) 1503 KAF / 34% (#2 / 32) 2002 Obs (kaf) % AvgRank2012-2002 (kaf) Green – Green River, UT81828%3310 Colorado – Cisco105724%1446 San Juan – Bluff00%1375 Lake Powell96413%11099

27. Lower Colorado Basin Virgin: Snowpack far behind average by mid January Snowpack melted out very early (order of weeks) April-June warmer than average and accelerated melt May and June very dry (finally saw precip in July) Salt-Verde: Generally dry for an extended period, particularly in Verde La Nina conditions – continued from last year Dry soil conditions entering the season Early season snowpack fizzled Weighted ESP was better guidance Phoenix dust storm Virgin

28. WY12 Official Forecasts Virgin @ Virgin (VIRU1) 28 2012 AMJJ Observed = 26.5 KAF (46% AVG) 81-10 AMJJ Average = 58.1 KAF VIRU1Official Fcst (COORD)Error Jan 145 18.5 Feb 132 5.5 Mar 132 5.5 Apr 128 1.5 May 126 -0.5 Jun 125 -1.5 SUMMARY: Early months: overforecast (especially January). As season progressed: Precip dried out; fcsts dropped. Fcsts issued in Apr, May, June: were closest to the volume that was eventually observed. Least Erroneous Official WY12 Fcst : May

29. SALT – ROOSEVELT: 2012 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTS Progressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May) Volume in kAF

30. VERDE-HORSHOE: 2011 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTS Progressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May) Volume in kAF