1. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Steve Markstrom U.S. Geological Survey Lakewood, Colorado

2. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov What Is a National Hydrologic Model? 1.Development of standard methods to produce consistent and comparable hydrologic model studies. 2.Development of technology which makes the best available data readily accessible to hydrologic modelers. This includes dissemination of results from model studies in a consistent and efficient manner. 3.Relevant research and development in the field of hydrologic modeling to answer increasingly complex questions, and to take advantage of improved data sources as they become available. 4.Development of a modeling archive process which provides a platform for model distribution, comparability, and interoperability. This archive process is a key to coupling models from diverse scientific disciplines. Accurate estimates of total water availability, changes in the timing and source of flow and reliable measures of the uncertainty of these estimates are essential in assessing the response of the Nation’s water resources, ecosystems and dependent aquatic and terrestrial plant and animal communities to climate and land use changes.

3. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov What Are the Components of a National Hydrologic Model? 2.National “Geospatial Fabric” to provide a consistent spatial context for any study, model application, data collection, etc. 3.Sources of the best available data : National extent Freely available Model ready (processing and formatting) 1.Hydrologic models and software tools

4. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) PRMS Conceptualization of Basin Components Lauren Hay Steve Markstrom Steve Regan Roland Viger Andy Bock Christian Ward-Garrison Shannon Poole Modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process, daily time-step watershed model that simulates watershed response to various combinations of climate and land use. PRMS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System GSFLOW Coupled ground-water and surface-water flow model based on the integration of PRMS and MODFLOW (Modular Ground-Water Flow Model) SNTEMP Stream Network TEMPerature model MWBM Monthly Water Balance Model (w/Dwight Atkinson and Greg McCabe) The coupling of PRMS with SNTemp will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

5. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Creating a Geospatial Fabric for National-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Objective – Simulate streamflow values at any point in the US  Create a consistent national geospatial fabric from NHDPlus  Drive PRMS and MWBM  Infrastructure for National Hydrologic Model  Easily support/compare other efforts Objective – Simulate streamflow values at any point in the US  Create a consistent national geospatial fabric from NHDPlus  Drive PRMS and MWBM  Infrastructure for National Hydrologic Model  Easily support/compare other efforts

6. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov John Walker (WI WSC) NHDPlus Region 10Lower Loch Vale Watershed, CO

7. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Loch Vale Watershed, CO

8. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Loch Vale Watershed, CO 100km 2 1.5km 2

9. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov 100km 2 1.5km 2 Loch Vale Watershed, CO

10. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Geo Data Portal (GDP) Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) http://cida.usgs.gov/gdp/ The GDP is a portal (website) that can provide information summarized to a set of spatial features: Spatial data for model input (e.g., DEMs, land cover, soils, geology) Climate data for model forcing (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/) Loosely couple models (upload your own model results into THREDDS) Nathaniel L. Booth, Tom Kunicki, Ivan Suftin, Dave Blodgett, Jordan Walker (CIDA)

11. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Hydrologic Model (parameterization) Spatial parameters  GIS interface  GDP Impervious Area Vegetation Land Cover Terrain and Hydrology

12. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov Current Condition Climate data for model forcing available from GDP Andy Bock (CO WSC) Greg McCabe (NRP) Dwight Atkinson (EPA) Type of climate dataGDP Dataset NameTime step Dataset Abbrev. Period of Record Grid SpacingReference Gridded product based on station data Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model Monthly PRISM1895-20114km Daly and others (2001) DayMET model 1 Daily DayMET1980-20111km Thornton and others (2012) Gridded Observed Meteorological Data Daily Maurer1950-19991/8 o Maurer and others (2002) Dynamically Downscaled GCM North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program 2 (5 GCMs downscaled with 9 RCMs) Daily NARCCAP 1971-2000 2041-2070 50km Mearns and others (2007) USGS Dynamical Downscaled Regional Climate (4 GCMs downscaled with 1 RCM) Daily Hostetler1968-209915km Hostetler and others (2011) Statistically Downscaled GCM CONUS Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (12 GCMs) Daily Hayhoe1950-20991/8 o Stoner and others (2012) Bias Corrected Spatially Downscaled Monthly Climate Predictions (16 GCMs) Monthly BCSD1950-20991/8 o Maurer and others (2007)

13. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov GeoData Portal (GDP) Best Available Data HRU summary Mapped to model format Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) Shape File GDP

14. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov What happened behind the scenes? Gridded output Statistical summaries of gridded output by basin subunits

15. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov

16. American Water Resources Association 2012 Annual Conference Jacksonville, Florida November 13, 2012 markstro@usgs.gov http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mows