1. Programme RURALSTRUC Program Atelier de fin de phase 2 End of phase 2 Workshop Gorée 16-20 June 2008

2. Introduction to the workshop  How has the international debate changed since we started RuralStruc in 2005-06?  Challenge and opportunities for RuralStruc?  What is at stake with phase 2?  What is at stake with this workshop in Gorée?

3. 1 – Changes in the international debate  In 2005: the WTO debate was a core issue: the impact of trade liberalization was in the launching rationale of RuralStruc The MDGs were “still alive”: halve hunger and poverty by 2015…  One of the main objectives of the program was to put structural issues in the global picture => the “iceberg image” Understand the consequences of the global restructuring of the agro-food markets on agriculture and rural economies Rearticulate the evolution within agriculture with the global processes of economic transition in developing countries Fill the knowledge gap on the concrete situation of the rural economies => “a better understanding for better policy making”

4. 1 – Changes in the international debate  Since then: The WTO debate has faded: the potential gains of the Doha round have been downgraded The negotiations are on hold since the failure of the Hong Kong ministerial (Dec. 05), despite other attempts (Geneva July 06 and again next July) The world faces a frenzy of FTAs Climate change is an increasing concern: Stern Report (2006) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (2007): variability, long-term drying trends, reduction in cultivable land and reduction in the length of the growing season The fragility of the international growth model: growing demand and growing scarcity of resources => boom of raw material prices

5. 1 – Changes in the international debate  Since the last 6 months: The WDR08 and the new debate on agriculture… … swept away by the food price crisis (started in Jan. 08) => What are the main explanations?  On the supply side: weather-related production shortfalls (short term) stock levels (increased instability) increasing fuel costs impact on fertilizers and transportation (long term)

6. 1 – Changes in the international debate  On the demand side: bio-fuels: mainly maize based ethanol and domino effects on other cereals via substitution for feeding stuffs (long term?) interventions of financial markets on agricultural commodities (short term?) the evolving diet of emerging countries: the wrong issue (long term but not directly related)

7. 1 – Changes in the international debate  A wrong diagnosis: Food shortage related to insufficient world production When the core issue is access to food: for poor consumers => developing countries  Wrong answers: Priority given to food production supply: big donors monies => productivity, irrigation schemes, fertilizer and seeds packages… Inadequate fiscal and trade policies: removal of import and indirect taxes on food imports, taxation and quotas on food exports…

8. 2. The missing debate  A focus on food production instead of a focus on activities, income and structural change What is the role of agriculture in GDP, trade, and employment? What are the consequences of the restructuring of the food system and the reinvestment in food production (and how?) on farm and rural incomes? What are the processes of concentration and marginalization and the exit options?  Lack of strategies and policies to accompany structural change : => What is at stake? What are the needs? What is the absorption capacity of the economy? What are the economic alternatives?

9. Population Dynamic (1) 195019701990201020302050 Population change 2010-2050 Millions% Eastern Asia 6709871 3441 5631 6631 591292 Latin America and the Caribbean 16828844459471376917630 Northern Africa 538614420626831010450 South-Central Asia 5117771 2431 7772 2462 53675943 South-Eastern Asia 17828744159471176717229 Sub-Saharan Africa 1802935198671 3081 761894103 Western Asia 518815423231237214060

10. Population Dynamic (2) 1960199020102050Variation 2010-2050 Kenya8,123,440,684,844,1109% Madagascar5,412,021,344,523,2109% Mali4,07,713,534,220,7153% Mexico37,984,0110,3132,322,020% Morocco11,624,832,442,610,232% Nicaragua1,84,25,97,01,118% Senegal3,37,913,325,311,990%

11. Activity Ratio (1) Structural Ajustement

12. Activity Ratio (2)

13. Additional Labor Supply CountryAdditional labor supply in 2005 Peak of annual additional labor supply Peak time Kenya558,800930,6002030 Madagascar286,200473,4002035 Mali171,800447,8002045 Mexico922,6001,368,6002000 Morocco377,800413,6002000 Nicaragua69,00081,0002010 Senegal179,800268,2002025

14. Labor surplus and job creation gap Date or Time period Formal job creation (annual average) Additional labor supply (annual average) Formal job creation / additional labor demand (%) Projected formal job deficit after 5 years (stock) Kenya200436,400558,8007%2,612,000 Madagascar200742,000251,60017%1,048,000 Mali199939,500201,60020%810,500 Morocco1994-2003217,000377,80057%804,000 Nicaragua2000-200532,00074,40043%212,000 Senegal2000-200620,000179,80011%799,000

15. Change in the EAP (1961-2005)

16. A snapshot on Economic Transition 1960-2004

17. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  We are reinvesting structural issues: what are the processes of structural change at stake within the rural economies? What is the role of agriculture today?  Based on 3 main hypotheses? restructuring of agro-food markets and processes of differentiation and segmentation Marginalization trends and risks of transitional dead- ends (relative scarcity of alternative activities and sources of employment) Agricultural households adaptation and new composite strategies of activities and income (reshaping of rural economies)

18. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  We consider that economic transition paths are not given: Historic transitions are a reference but they cannot be reproduced in the same way  Agriculture-based countries today face an original challenge of transition: Simultaneous demographic and economic transitions huge productivity and competitiveness gaps No possible comparison with “European” transitions and with “Emerging countries” transitions => world has changed

19. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  We try to provide a new picture on rural economies based on: Comparative approach Similar questioning and data collection processes in seven countries  In a context where the lack of adequate information is critical: International/national information systems are obsolete: focus on production and production factors Structural change is badly informed: example of the WDR => case studies or poor international databases?

20. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  cf. the RIGA exercise (Rural Income Generating Activities) => LSMS

21. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  cf. the RIGA exercise

22. 3. What are we doing in RuralStruc?  Phase 2 process is critical: a broad range of activities: field surveys, synthesis of existing documentation (continuing phase 1 exercise), regional and national reports, general synthesis Under time constraint  However, this is also a huge opportunity to: Provide new information on 7 countries and 25 regions (with data on about 9,000 HH) With a renewed approach on agricultural and rural economies Feed the debate and the policy making process

23. 4. Objectives of the workshop  Review the rationale and the objectives  Review the different steps in the preparation of the national syntheses  Discuss the state of play in each country  Deal with difficulties  Discuss the road ahead: dissemination of results, national and international debates

24. 5. Program of the workshop  Day 1: general introduction / deadlines and state of play  Day 2: data analysis and 1 st discussion on differentiation processes / discussion on H1 and H3  Day 3 [am]: debate on vulnerability /fragility indicators  Day 4: vulnerability and differentiation / discussion on H2 => how to contribute  Day 5: dissemination and next steps / conclusion

25. State of play and development of phase II Gorée, Senegal - June, 2008

26. Deadlines and countdown  Initial deadlines: 6 months after signature Workshop mid-April => end of May => mid- June  Today’ s deadline: draft report mid-July  Justified by: End of the program: end of February 09 Peer review process: internal and external reviews => draft final report mid-November Advisory Committee mid-September Steering Committee early September note for review to be sent on August 30

27. Guidelines for the national reports of phase II

28. Part 1: Methodology Chapter 1: Justification of the selected regions and the selected chains Chapter 2: Presentation of the field work and the collected information

29. Part 2: Results : what are the differentiation processes at stake? (1/2) Chapter 1: Main characteristics of the selected agricultural chains Chapter 2: Main characteristics of the selected regions Chapter 3: Existing processes of differentiation among rural households  A/ Differentiation with respect to market access and restructuring of agricultural chains [H1]  B/ Differentiation with respect to the diversification of activities and income sources [H3]

30. Part 2: Results : what are the differentiation processes at stake? (2/2) Chapter 4: Insights on households’ vulnerability and prospects for agriculture in the selected regions  perspectives of evolution of agriculture in the surveyed regions  discussion based on the analysis of the differentiation processes and on the identification of vulnerability (or weakness / fragility) levels

31. Part 3: Operational conclusions and policy recommendations  With the objective of feeding the policy debate, this part will focus on: Existing challenges of agriculture Significance for the global national economy and the society as a whole Main bottlenecks which need actions in terms of public policies

32. State of play at the country level

33. Presentation by each country team  +/- 10 minutes  Implementation of phase 2and development  Stage reached so far: In data analysis (HH and chains) In drafting the regional reports In preparing the national synthesis  Main difficulties and issues to be discussed