1. Evaluation and Application of Air Quality Model System in Shanghai Qian Wang 1, Qingyan Fu 1, Yufei Zou 1, Yanmin Huang 1, Huxiong Cui 1, Junming Zhao 1, Qi Chen 2 1.Shanghai environmental monitoring center 2.Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau The 3 rd International Workshop on Air Quality Forecast Research Nov 29-Dec 1,2011

2. Outline 2 Model application 31 Introduction Model performance 4 Future plan

3. Background- air quality during Shanghai Expo  Attainment ratio is 98.4%, which is 2.7% higher than in 2009.  181 days with excellent and good air quality  The average concentration of PM 10 ， SO 2 and NO 2 during the expo in 2010 is the lowest.  Comparing to the other 8 cities in YRD, the attainment ratio of air quality in Shanghai is the second highest.

4. Continuous “Excellent” air quality for 17 days in July 7 月 12 日 (40)7 月 13 日 (48)7 月 14 日 (33)7 月 15 日 (32)7 月 16 日 (50) 7 月 17 日 (32)7 月 18 日 (35)7 月 19 日 (39)7 月 20 日 (24)7 月 21 日 (50) 7 月 22 日 (32)7 月 26 日 (22)7 月 27 日 (16)7 月 28 日 (36) (Air Pollution Index)

5. Air quality model system Same domain setting Same emission inventory Operational run

6. Emission inventory in model Trace-P Asia emission inventory in 2006 Shanghai emission inventory in 2007 Power plant emission inventory in YRD in 2007 Gridded emission inventory in model system SMOKE

7. 2006 年 2007 年 Update of point source EI in 2007

9. Outline 2 Model application 31 Introduction Model performance 4 Future plan

10. Model Parame ter Number MeanSi m MeanO bs corrMB NMB （ % ） NME （ % ） RMSE MM5 T 397824.6525.050.86-0.40-1.599.633.13 WS 39782.513.700.33-1.19-32.0746.482.19 RH 397870.8072.030.55-1.23-1.7116.8715.73 PRE 39781011.841010.430.911.410.140.232.91 WRF T 334723.5825.050.93-1.46-5.848.162.48 WS 33474.423.700.540.7219.4139.021.89 RH 334777.1772.030.765.147.1312.6511.51 PRE 33471005.911010.430.96-4.51-0.450.444.75 the correlation coefficient of T, Rh,Pre simulation and observation is above 0.7. MM5 and WRF could well predict the hourly variation of major elements. Meteorological simulation evaluation

11. The predicted wind direction of MM5 is much accurate than that of WRF, especially when the wind speed is low. Wind

12. Air quality forecast evaluation-1 Model system well predicts the daily variation of PM 10,SO 2 andNO 2 in shanghai.

13. Air quality forecast evaluation-2 Model Paramet er NumberMeanSimMeanObsMB NMB （ % ） NME （ % ） RMSE NAQPM S PM 10 1800.0770.0580.01932.1551.400.035 SO 2 1800.0440.0210.023107.25110.390.027 NO 2 1800.0530.0410.01229.9350.260.024 PM 2.5 1800.0340.039-0.005-12.9937.780.020 CAMxPM 10 1790.0630.0580.0057.9336.620.029 SO 2 1790.0320.0210.01150.1156.570.016 NO 2 1790.0370.041-0.004-8.8028.670.015 PM 2.5 1790.0360.039-0.003-8.5534.070.019 CMAQ4. 4 PM 10 1800.0730.0580.01525.1543.190.033 SO 2 1800.0500.0210.028131.94132.170.035 NO 2 1800.0470.0410.00615.0732.170.016 PM 2.5 1800.0370.039-0.001-3.8035.990.019 CMAQ4. 6 PM 10 1650.0510.058-0.007-12.0340.400.030 SO 2 1650.0410.0210.02091.4698.750.028 NO 2 1650.0570.0410.01639.6647.680.024 PM 2.5 1650.0350.039-0.004-10.9844.420.023 WRF- Chem PM 10 1430.0840.0580.02644.7354.010.038 SO 2 1430.0410.0210.01989.7087.680.024 NO 2 1430.0540.0410.01330.5838.000.018 PM 2.5 1430.0520.0390.01333.6650.320.024 cvcv cvcvc cvcv cvcvc PM 10 、 NO 2 、 SO 2 -over predicted ， PM 2.5 -under predicted——PM 2.5 、 NH 3 emission sources is under predicted, SO 2 emission sources is over predicted.

14. Outline 2 Model improvement 31 Introduction Model performance 4 Future plan

15. dust storm observed from space (MODIS 2011/04/29 )regional haze & biomass burning (MODIS 2011/10/07 ) Only anthropogenic emissions are quantified ( with great uncertainty ) in our operational EMS Dust & Biomass Burning emission are missing! Difficulties in air quality model forecast

16. DMS Ingest/import data QC automatically QC manually Calculate data Generate reports IMS Mapper Dispatcher Info services Meteorological info download Numerical forecasting interface Daily report operation platform Information release system Ensemble Model System Two Independent Subsystems ? No Interactions in Current Framework! Air Quality Monitoring Network Defect in current system framework

17. where, EnKF formula: Initial Input Initial Condition; Boundary Condition ； Emissions EnKF-PCT System CAMx Forward Model Observations Meteorology MM5 Updated Chemical Field PCT Analysis EnKF Update (First Guess ） （ Assimilated ） Quality Control Model Uncertainty Quantification/Apportionment Improved Forecast; National/Regional Monitoring Network Offline Coupling (Jia Li, Dongbin Xiu, JCP, 2009) Gain Matrix Perturbed observation Ensemble Forecast Analysis Ensemble Members Forward Model Data assimilation scheme

18. National control sites City control sites National Monitoring Network Automatic Monitoring Network in Shanghai Monitoring network

19. ParametersSpeciesPerturbationDistributionPolynomial UA1 Emission PM, NOx ， SO2 [-10%,+10%]BetaJacob UA2 Dry Deposition Velocity PM[-10%,+10%]BetaJacob UA2 Dilution rate/Entrainment rate NOx ， SO2 [-10%,+10%]BetaJacob UA3 Wind field PM ， NOx ， SO2 [-10%,+10%]BetaJacob Uncertainty sources: (Rao and Hosker, 1993) Model uncertainty analysis

20. 2011-04-30 12 ： 00 (24h forecast) 2011-05-01 12 ： 00 (24h forecast)2011-05-02 12 ： 00 (24h forecast) 2011-05-03 12 ： 00 (24h forecast) 2011-04-29 12 ： 00 (24h forecast) ASSIMILATIONPREDICTION Obs Analysis_A Analysis_B Application-----dust storm forecast

21. Beijing Shanghai 2011/04/30 12:00 am (CAMx simulation with assimilation) 2011/04/30 11:00 -14:00 am (MODIS aqua & terra: NASA) Application-----dust storm forecast

22. Beijing Shanghai 2011/05/01 12:00 am (CAMx simulation with assimilation) 2011/05/01 11:00 -14:00 am (MODIS aqua & terra: NASA) Application-----dust storm forecast

23. Beijing Shanghai 2011/05/31 11:00 am (CAMx simulation with assimilation) 2011/05/31 11:00 am (MODIS terra: NASA) Fire Spots Application-----regional haze forecast CB6 vs. CB05?! (Greg Yarwood et al., 2010)

24. 4 Outline 2 Model application 31 Introduction Model performance Future plan

25. Three dimensional monitoring network for air pollution transportation events; Increased monitoring species with higher spatial and temporal resolution; More sufficient observations Improvements of emission inventory on regional and local scale based on model performance evaluation More ensemble method for improving model performance Performance evaluation Operational running with a large amount of business practices and application; Keep improving and providing advanced forecasting services to the public; Continuously operational running and improving Future plan

26. Thanks for your attention!