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OTR Results ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013 1.

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Presentation on theme: "OTR Results ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 OTR Results ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013 1

2 Introduction 2  Version 1.65 of ERTAC EGU Continental US (CONUS) Inputs  Future year is 2020  Model run conducted by VADEQ  Results are based on:  Known shutdowns/controls/new units as of Jan-Feb 2013  AEO 2013/NERC 2012  First version of the ERTAC EGU projection code  Results are focused on the OTR+VA  11 full OTC member states, DC, and all of Virginia

3 Current ERTAC Region Map 3

4 ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 FF Gen. (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results4

5 Top 25 Generators in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results5

6 Gas-fired Generation Deficit Units (2020) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results6  “Generation Deficit Units” reflect demand met through unanticipated units  Extra gas capacity needed; mostly during peak demand periods  No coal, oil, or boiler gas GDUs created RegionCombined CycleSingle Cycle GDUsMax DeficitMax HourGDUsMax DeficitMax Hour NEWE0000 NYUP0000 NYLI0000 NYCW0000 RFCE31285 MW464172567 MW118 RFCW (OTR + VA)0066188 MW10

7 Coal Unit Underutilzation(2020) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results7  Some unused capacity would be reserve capacity, downtime, etc.  Only RFCW had units with utilization above 70%  High level of underutilization implies that there may be unaccounted for retirements RegionUtilization FractionUnused Capacity Retired> 0% & < 50%>= 50%Annual (Million MW-hr) NEWE110021 out of 45 NYUP13 412 out of 34 RFCE24381988 out of 241 RFCW (OTR + VA)091427 out of 109

8 Preliminary Conclusions 8  Overall decreased demand projected for fossil fuel generation in Eastern USA  Larger reduction in fossil fuel generation projected in North East/Mid-Atlantic  Shift to natural gas use projected in nearly every state in the North East  Some uncertainty as to where the projected peak growth in gas generation will come from  Ample projected coal capacity may allow more retirements

9 ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 SO X (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results9

10 Top 25 SO X Emitters in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results10 Homer City has plan approval to install scrubbers

11 Top 25 SO X Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results11

12 ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 NO X (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results12

13 Top 25 NO X Emitters in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results13

14 Top 25 Annual NO X Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results14

15 Questions? 15 XKCD.com

16 North American Interconnections 16

17 Change in Fossil Fuel Generation in CAMD Units in Eastern Interconnection from 2007 to 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results17  Fossil Fuel Generation in Eastern Interconnection drops by 7% from 2007 to 2020  Fossil Fuel Generation in ERTAC Regions that overlap the OTR decreases 15% by 2020

18 ERTAC EGU Next Steps ERTAC EGU – RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013 18

19 Next Steps 19 Conversion to SMOKE-Ready InputsSensitivity RunsStakeholder OutreachRuns/Growth Rate DocumentationUpdate Base Year to 2011Add to Software Functionality

20 Complete Conversion to SMOKE Ready Inputs 20  The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) is the emissions modeling tool used to convert inventories into modeling inputs  ERTAC EGU results are not in the SMOKE input format  A small workgroup is currently testing and improving data inputs for the conversion  OTC/MANE-VU will model air quality using ERTAC EGU outputs for their region – results should be available Fall 2013

21 Potential Sensitivity Runs for ERTAC EGU 21 PJM Deactivation ListAlternative Growth RatesCAIR Allowance UsePotential Transport RulesHigh Electricity Demand Days/Demand ResponseMATS & Other Federal MeasuresEnergy Efficiency/Renewable Energy

22 Complete Stakeholder Outreach Process 22  5/20 - In person meeting at LADCO offices (full)  6/28 - Comments due on version 1.65 from stakeholders  Comments should be sent to regional contact or comments@marama.org comments@marama.org

23 Other Next Steps 23  Documentation of runs and growth rate development needs to be completed to ease reproducibility of results  The base year needs to be updated to a more recent year, with 2011 being a good choice since it is a National Emission Inventory year  Several improvements to the code’s functionality have been discussed throughout the process and in the long term enhancement will be made if funding is secured

24 Questions? 24 BiLK_Thorn @ flickr

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