1. 1 Proposed Revisions to Deemed Savings Input Assumptions for PTCS Duct Sealing and Heat Pump Efficiency Upgrades and Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls in Existing Homes January 8, 2007

2. 2 Issue Current deemed savings analysis assumes that existing single family and manufactured homes with heat pumps have the same average size as homes with any electric heating system Average home size assumptions –Pre-79 Single Family – 1600 sq.ft –Post79/Pre93 Single Family – 2200 sq.ft. –Post92 Single Family – 2300 sq.ft. –Existing Manufactured Home – 1020 sq.ft –New Manufactured Home – 1636 sq.ft..

3. 3 Average Size of Single Family Homes in Regional Heat Pump Savings Evaluation Vintage FAF w/o CAC FAF w/ CAC Heat PumpAll Pre792,2321,8872,6212,069 Post79/Pre932,2761,7102,4062,278 Post922,3331,9632,3762,271 All2,2631,8832,4772,146

4. 4 Average Pre79 Single Family Homes in Regional Heat Pump Evaluation Were Significantly Larger Than RTF Assumes

5. 5 Average Size of Manufactured Homes in Regional Heat Pump Savings Evaluation VintageFAF w/o CACFAF w/CAC Heat PumpAll Pre791,662NA1,6501,661 Post79/Pre931,7061,7161,8811,728 Post921,7581,887NA1,762 All1,7111,8021,8231,721

6. 6 Average Pre79 Manufactured Homes in Regional Heat Pump Evaluation Were Significantly Larger Than RTF Assumes

7. 7 Do These Larger Homes Use Proportionately More Space Heating? Compared Regional Heat Pump Evaluation’s Estimated “Pre-Retrofit” Space Heating Use to RTF Assumptions –Problems Data for homes with pre-existing heat pump in Heating Zone 1/Cooling Zone 1 (sample primarily from Olympic Peninsula and OR Coast) Sample sizes are small or non-existent, especially for MH –Issue: Should these homes usage be used to modify the RTF baseline (Pre-PTCS measure) space heating estimates

8. 8 Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 1 Were these heat pumps functioning?

9. 9 Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 2

10. 10 Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit All Forced Air System Types Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 3 Were these heat pumps functioning?

11. 11 Estimated Single Family Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit Heat Pump Systems Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones Were these heat pumps functioning?

12. 12 Estimated Single Family Heat Pump Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit – Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones

13. Assuming Heat Pumps in Cooling Zone 1 Were Functioning Increases Single Family Baseline Consumptions Estimates – Especially for More Recently Built Homes House VintagePre79 - Excl CZ1 Pre79 - All Post79/Pre93 - Excl CZ1 Post79/Pre 93 - All Post93 - Excl CZ1 Post93 - All N16271336313 House Size2,2322,6212,2672,4062,4722,376 Space Heating Use (kWh) 10,46011,5897,01410,6196,24012,279 Space Heating Use (kWh/sq.ft./yr) 4.74.43.14.42.55.2

14. 14 Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre- Retrofit All Forced Air System Types Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 1

15. 15 Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre- Retrofit All Forced Air System Types Heating Zone 1 Cooling Zone 2

16. 16 Estimated Manufactured Home Space Heating Use Pre- Retrofit Heat Pump Systems Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones

17. 17 Estimated Manufactured Home Heat Pump Home Space Heating Use Pre-Retrofit – Heating Zone 1 All Cooling Zones

18. 18 Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions (kWh/sq.ft.)

19. 19 Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions (kWh/sq.ft.)

20. 20 Estimated Single Family Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions

21. 21 Manufactured Home Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions Note: Post92 Construction use estimate from RCDP

22. 22 Estimated Manufactured Home Heat Pump Zone 1 Space Heating Evaluation Estimates Compared to Current RTF Assumptions Note: Post92 Construction use estimate from RCDP

23. 23 Recommendation – Single Family

24. 24 Recommendation – Manufactured Homes Note: Estimated use of SGC/Energy Star heat pump homes derived From RCDP analysis which found annual use of 2.6 – 3.2 kWh/sf/yr.

25. 25 Impact of Revised Base Case Space Heating Use Assumptions on PTCS Measure Cost-Effectiveness Some changes in status of any heat pump upgrade measures –Upgrades for all vintages of MH in all climates zones are now cost-effective, including SGC/NEEM –Upgrades for all vintages and foundation types of SF homes in all climates zones are now cost-effective, including half/full basements in Heating Zone 1 PTCS Duct sealing, system commissioning & controls measure is now cost-effective for SGC/NEEM homes with existing or newly installed heat pumps in all climates zones