1. RESULTS OF RESEARCH RELATED TO CHARIS IN KAZAKHSTAN I. Severskiy, L. Kogutenko

2. Main research areas 2

3. Background information 3

4. 4 Methodology

5. 5

6. 6 Tuyuksu glacier mass balance

7. Data to estimate the main components of the mass balance of the reach of observation altitude zones of the glacier Ts Tuyuksu 7 Altitude, m Annual accumulatio n, % Annual ablat ion, % Winter balance, % 4219-4100641640 4100-4000732174 4000-3900902293 3900-380010459111

8. Glacier ablation and total mass balance, 2012-2013 Слайд8

9. The dynamics of the mass balance of the glacier Tuyuksu since 1957 to 2011 years 9

10. Dynamics of winter mass balance of the glacier Tuyyksu Changing rate of glaciation area reduction Ile Alatau,% per year 10 The reasons for the acceleration of degradation The reasons for the escalating degradation of glaciers in the 1970s - a period of abnormally high temperature ablation and sharp reduction in winter mass balance. During this period, the rate of reduction in the area of glaciation in Ili Alatau exceeded 1.2% / year versus 0.8% / year on average over half a century.

11. 11 Ablation of snow and ice on the glacier Tuyuksu, melting temperature coefficients To determine the ablation of snow and ice data a detailed observations on the glacier Tuyuksu for the 2008-2012 period was used. During the ablation period measured melting snow and ice on the rails 120 distributed uniformly over the area of the glacier ablation. Snow density was measured regularly in five pits uniformly distributed along the length of the ablation zone of the glacier. Temperature melting coefficients are 2.17 mm / ° C for snow and 4,0 ° C for ice. In this case, the average for a day was not used but a 12-hour air temperature instead.

12. Calculation of snow cover above the zero balance ELA The calculation is made on the basis of stable ratios of snow cover in the upper part of the ablation zone and at a fixed height in the zone of accumulation, identified according to the long-term measurements According to the results of six years of research, the average error of the calculation values ​​ of W is within ± 15% 12

13. Calculation of snow cover from remote sensing data We used a combination of the heat development of snow cover data and satellite imagery. W=Σ t ×K c, where W - snow cover, mm water equivalent, Σt - sum of positive air temperatures on the design height, Kc - temperature coefficient of the melting snow. We determined the date of snow cover at the specified level by MODIS. Then calculated the amount of positive air temperatures at the same level, using data from a nearest weather station and renowned lapse rate. According to the results of six years of research, the average error of the calculation values ​​ of W is within ± 15% 13

14. 14 EFFECT OF DEGRADATION OF GLACIERS ON RUNOFF AND WATER RESOURCES We used the adopted water equivalent volume of ice melted in the basin during the time interval between two glaciers cataloging as the glacial runoff. In this definition, a glacial runoff means the only items from the melting of multi-year ice. This represents 30% of the total glacier runoff (according long-term observations on the glaciers of the Ili and Dzhungar Alatau). This method is defined glacial runoff in 16 basins of Ili and Dzhungar Alatau for several time intervals during the period from 1955 to 2011.

15. 15 Glacial runoff, Ili Alatau

16. 16 Glacial runoff, Dzhungar Alatau

17. 17 Calculation of glacial runoff The simplest calculation of the annual ablation at the height of the equilibrium line on the dependence of the average summer temperature in the "global equation Krenke-Hodakova: А= ( t s +9,5) 3,(1) Where А– the total annual ablation of high-rise on the current level, mm; t s - the average temperature over the glacier for April – August months on the current high-altitude level, o C. For the mountains of South-East Kazakhstan adopted a equation А = (t s + 11,83) 3 (2) where ts average summer air temperature from May to September each year at an average altitude of the glacier, the corresponding long-term average of the equilibrium line in the last decade (3800м).

18. 18 Changes in glacial runoff from the northern slope of the Ili Alatau 1930-2013 years Relative A error calculation according to equation (2) is 13.2% versus 15.0% when calculated according to equation (1)

19. Change of glacial runoff Combined difference integral curves abnormalities average annual cost of water p. Lepsy and precipitation for the period from 1933 to 1993. Dependence of glacial runoff rivers of the northern slope of the Ile Alatau on the degree of glaciation basin The addition of glacial runoff due to global warming is small, depends on the extent of glaciation and basin is not decisive in stock. First of all changes in runoff are determined cyclical fluctuations in precipitation

20. Seasonal Distribution of river flow for the periods: 1 - 30 years until 1973, 2 - 1974-2006. Despite the significant reduction in glacier resources, over the past 60 years, the rules and intra-annual distribution of runoff from the main rivers of Central Asia have not changed. This suggests the existence of a compensation mechanism. Such a mechanism, according to our estimates, is becoming increasingly important (as the climate warms) participate in the formation of river runoff of melt water, ground ice. The main volume of runoff is compensatory melt water buried glaciers and rock glaciers 20 Impact of deglaciation on the stock

21. Changing the height of the surface of the open part of the glacier Tuyuksu for 1958-1998 years. For 40 years the glacier Tuyuksu lost 41 million m3 of ice. Maximum loss of ice thickness in the lower part of the tongue exceeded 45 m. Most of the area of ablation reduction in ice thickness varied from 5 to 15 m.

22. Decrease surface moraines of glaciers (1958-1998) During the period from 1958 to 1998 years a reduction equivalent of 20% for the moraines of the ice volume loss by the by glaciers

23. Conclusion 23 During the observation period there was an increase of glacial runoff due to intensive glacier reduction (1970), and then there was a decrease of glacial runoff. The contribution of glacier runoff to the total river flow at the outlet of the mountains is small. Change in the total river runoff depends more on the annual sum of precipitation than from glacial runoff. Contribution of glacial runoff increases with increasing the area of glaciation in the basin. Also if installations site of multiple hydrological stations are not chosen correctly this can be another contributing factor towards the increase of glacier runoff. Stability of the annual distribution of flow in conditions of reduction of glaciation area might suggest the presence of a compensatory mechanism, that is, the melting of ground ice. Even if the present trends of climate do not change it is not expected to significantly reduce regional water resources.

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