1. Estimating Steelhead Redd Abundance and Variance in the Wenatchee River Basin Andrew Murdoch WDFW Chad Herring WDFW Kevin See QCI Chris Jordan NOAA

2. Agenda Background Background Objectives Objectives Methods Methods Preliminary results Preliminary results Plans for 2012 Plans for 2012

3. Background UCR Steelhead listed in 1999 UCR Steelhead listed in 1999 Need estimate of spawner abundance to estimate productivity Need estimate of spawner abundance to estimate productivity UCR steelhead, like most others, have a huge variation in migration patterns UCR steelhead, like most others, have a huge variation in migration patterns “Overshooting” natal streams “Overshooting” natal streams Hatchery strays Hatchery strays Differential overwintering mortality Differential overwintering mortality Tributary versus Columbia Tributary versus Columbia

4. Goals and Objectives Goal Goal Estimate the total number of redds with an estimate of variance Estimate the total number of redds with an estimate of variance Objective Objective Develop models to estimate redd observer efficiency based on environmental, biological, or habitat variables Develop models to estimate redd observer efficiency based on environmental, biological, or habitat variables Estimate number of redds using AUC and redd life Estimate number of redds using AUC and redd life Estimate variance based on total uncertainty in the models Estimate variance based on total uncertainty in the models

5. Survey Methodology Conduct weekly surveys of index areas Conduct weekly surveys of index areas Geo-reference all redds Geo-reference all redds Collect environmental data each survey Collect environmental data each survey Conduct habitat survey of each index area (one time) Conduct habitat survey of each index area (one time) Conduct single survey of non-index areas at or near peak spawning of associated index area Conduct single survey of non-index areas at or near peak spawning of associated index area Collect environmental and habitat data Collect environmental and habitat data

6. Index and Non-index reaches Index reaches are not random Index reaches are not random Includes all major spawning areas Includes all major spawning areas Number of index reaches depends on spawn timing and redd life Number of index reaches depends on spawn timing and redd life Non-index reaches Non-index reaches Everywhere else Everywhere else Same spawn timing and redd life as index reach Same spawn timing and redd life as index reach

7. Redd Life Summary Steelhead spawning timing progresses from low to upper elevations, redd life is positively correlated with elevation. Steelhead spawning timing progresses from low to upper elevations, redd life is positively correlated with elevation. Redd life is only as good as survey frequency Redd life is only as good as survey frequency May require some intensive surveys in the first few years May require some intensive surveys in the first few years Some surveys may need to be performed after spawning is complete Some surveys may need to be performed after spawning is complete

8. 2010 Steelhead Redd Life ReachMeanNSDCV Range % of all redds MinMax P116.2448.753.5341 70% I119.5476.734.4832 42% W918.238949.5345 36% W1018.0509.150.6345 36% N115.1108.153.6528 36% N320.413524.51433 15%

9. Observer Efficiency Results by Reach Census reach N Redd statisticsReddsOmissionFalse ID MeanCVRange%SD% % P1 916383 - 2448.818.351.218.317.217.6 N310344517 - 5461.216.238.816.214.011.3 I110242912 - 3649.814.350.214.322.5 9.0 W9 821779 - 5230.922.369.122.340.611.7 W1011344018 - 6141.213.158.813.120.713.2

11. Overall Best Model 1. Reach Experience 2. Visibility 3. Redd density 4. Channel Complexity Index

12. Statistical Analysis – Redd Abundance Estimate of redds by reach for both index and non-index areas Estimate of redds by reach for both index and non-index areas AUC AUC Use normal approximation of redd counts through time Use normal approximation of redd counts through time Apply some of the same parameters to non-index reaches Apply some of the same parameters to non-index reaches Get estimate of total number of redd-days Get estimate of total number of redd-days Divide by redd life Divide by redd life Divide by observer efficiency Divide by observer efficiency

13. Index Reach (Icicle River)

16. Non-Index Reach (W3)

18. Statistical Analysis – Variance Sources of variance Sources of variance Redd life Redd life Observer efficiency Observer efficiency Parameter uncertainty in estimating the normal curve Parameter uncertainty in estimating the normal curve All sources can be included using the delta method All sources can be included using the delta method

19. Conclusions Observer efficiency can be estimated reasonably well Observer efficiency can be estimated reasonably well Methodology can be used with a reasonable amount of effort Methodology can be used with a reasonable amount of effort Redd life is important, but somewhat subjective Redd life is important, but somewhat subjective Training, training, training Training, training, training

20. Next Steps Collect more observer efficiency data Collect more observer efficiency data Maximize contrast to the greatest extent possible Maximize contrast to the greatest extent possible Evaluate importance of survey effort (hours) into model Evaluate importance of survey effort (hours) into model Evaluate alternate metrics for channel complexity (thalweg variation) Evaluate alternate metrics for channel complexity (thalweg variation) Model validation Model validation Conduct weekly surveys on all census reaches Conduct weekly surveys on all census reaches Estimate redd abundance and variance for the Wenatchee Basin in 2012 Estimate redd abundance and variance for the Wenatchee Basin in 2012 Conduct same study in the Methow using two surveyors instead of one (2012 -2014) Conduct same study in the Methow using two surveyors instead of one (2012 -2014)

21. Acknowledgements Funding provided by BPA and Chelan County PUD Funding provided by BPA and Chelan County PUD All the WDFW spawning ground surveyors All the WDFW spawning ground surveyors Chris Jordan conceived the project Chris Jordan conceived the project Jody White and Chris Beasley at QCI for valuable insight into the project Jody White and Chris Beasley at QCI for valuable insight into the project Kevin See for graciously accepting the project with no warning Kevin See for graciously accepting the project with no warning