1. Poverty, Population, and The Environment

2. Introduction  1930s-1950s, US: transition from small- scale, labor-intensive farming to highly mechanized, chemical-intensive, large- scale agriculture  1950-1990: farm residents drops from 23 million to 4.5 million

3. Transition and Development  Agrarian transition Universal feature of market-driven economic development  Traditional economic development challenge: Productively absorb millions of workers “freed up” from agriculture

4. US WORLD 19.8Carbon dioxide emissions (met tons/capita)3.9 774Number of vehicles per 1,000 people176 $34,280GNI per capita (PPP)$7,160 4Percent of male labor force in agriculture46 1Percent of female labor force in agriculture52 1,542Tractors per 1,000 agricultural workers20 http://www.populationconnection.org/Communications/FactSheets/Demo%20Facts%202004.pdf

5. The Environment and Development  Solving the economic development problem is part of addressing local and global environmental concerns  Sustainability cannot be achieved unless poverty is directly addressed. What are the links?

6. 1. Many environmental problems are problems of poverty  Unsafe drinking water  Inadequate sewage facilities  Indoor air pollution

7. Safe Water and Sanitation by Income

8. 2. Conserving Resources  Poor people often put an unsustainable burden on the natural capital in their immediate environment  Higher consumption in rich countries has a substantially larger global impact

9. 3. “Demand” for Pollution Control  Richer people “demand” more pollution control  Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis As economic growth proceeds, certain types of pollution problems first get worse and then get better

10. Regulated & Unregulated Pollutants by Per Capita Income

12. Explanations for the EKC  Rising Education  Political demand for pollution control  Shift in industrial composition  Relative risk considerations: is environmental quality a “luxury good”?

13. 4. Population Growth  Population growth slows with increased income  As societies grow wealthier, families almost universally have fewer children

14. World Population, 1900-2100

15. The Population in Perspective  Population pressure Major environmental threat in the medium and long-term Currently, overwhelms the ability of poor country governments to provide educational, health and sanitary services  Rising incomes in poor countries could lead to a natural demographic transition to low population growth

16. Drop in Population Growth Rates  Population predictions for 2050 have fallen by more than 2 billion people from predictions 20 years ago 1985-1995: large, unexpected fertility declines in South Central Asia and Africa Slowed population growth from the impact of AIDS  However: a vicious cycle of population growth and poverty still exists in many countries

17. An Economic Approach to Family Size  Economic benefits of having children Economic insurance Income supplement  Economic costs Parents child-rearing efforts Monetary resources

18. Family Size Strategies  High-investment strategy Focus all available resources on one or two children  Low-investment strategy Have many children to increase the chance of them contributing to family income

19. Why does rising income encourage families to adopt the “quality strategy”?  Lowered infant and childhood mortality  Access to education  Women enter the paid labor force  Prohibitions of child labor

20. Controlling Population Growth 1. Reduce Poverty Widely shared gains from economic growth based on labor intensive manufacturing Redistribution of wealth Land reform Debt-for-farmland swaps

21. 2. Better social safety net  Reduce infant and child mortality Risk associated with investing in a child’s health and education is reduced  Provide public health care, insurance, and education

22. 3. Education  Access to education supports high- investment strategies Lowers cost of such a strategy Better educated parents produce better educated children Increased opportunity cost of parents’ time  Educating women should be made a high priority: increases women’s power in household to make fertility decisions.

23. 4. Family Planning  Large unsatisfied demand for birth control worldwide  Better-educated, wealthier, urban women are better able to actually achieve fertility control  $10 billion: current funding for population control in poor countries  Additional $7 billion a year might reduce long-run global population by 2.5 billion!

24. Coercive Policies?  1980, China: One-Child Policy China: land size of US w/ pop 4X Rise in sex selection--aborting female fetuses, and increase in female infanticide(?) “Accepted” for two reasons ○ Authoritarian political control ○ Publicly Supported goal  India, 1970s: coercive birth control policy brought to a halt under public suspicion

25. GOOD NEWS!  Population growth rates have been declining rapidly  “Small” investments in family planning have large impacts on global population  Probably the most cost-effective expenditure to insure global sustainability  Outside of China, coercive policies not needed and likely to fail

26. Consumption and the Global Environment  Consumption-pollution link 1. Rich country consumption responsible for 2/3 of global pollution 2. High consumption in rich countries is responsible for environmental degradation in poor countries

27. Natural Capital and Development  Demand for resources in rich countries has depleted the natural capital stock in poor countries, WITHOUT investment of resource rents: Colonial governments Falling relative prices for primary resources Low taxes on resource based industries Spending on military and imported consumption goods for elites Debt repayment

28. Debt  Latin American external debt 1960: $7.2 billion 1982: $315.3 billion

29. Global Debt Relief  Watch the movie! http://www.live8live.com http://www.live8live.com  2005 G* Summit: Debt forgiveness for 18 poor countries, subject to “conditionality”  Still only 1/6 of global debt of low income countries

30. Envisioning a Sustainable Future  Bruntland Commission Report (Our Common Future) “Sustainable development” gains widespread currency Brighter future will not come without hard and conscious work Four key sustainability steps

31. Sustainability Steps  Population and human resources  Food security  Improved technology  Resource conservation

32. Guns vs Sustainable Butter