2. October 28, 2008University of Michigan2

3. October 28, 2008University of Michigan3 http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/image/vbig/191.jpg

4. In All States… Submerged Land: Always owned by the State Non-Tidal Great Lakes Beach In Most States… Public Trust Beach: Some kind of public trust interest up to the Ordinary High Water Mark (where?) Public Trust Doctrine

5. Indiana New York Wisconsin FastlandDry SandWet SandLake Private Ownership   Public Trust Michigan Illinois Minnesota Pennsylvania FastlandDry SandWet SandLake Private Ownership   Public Trust Ohio FastlandDry SandWet SandLake Private Ownership   Public Trust Strong Private Ownership Overlapping Ownership Strong Public Ownership Ordinary High Water Mark Ordinary High Water Mark Ordinary High Water Mark Low Water Mark / Swash Low Water Mark / Swash Low Water Mark / Swash Marking OHW on the Great Lakes

6. +576.017 Lowest Water Elevation Mark Date: 01/01/2013 +582.349 Highest Water Elevation Mark Date: 10/01/1986 Great Lakes water levels in Lake Michigan 6 feet difference between highest and lowest water levels

7. Lake Michigan Water Levels Current (3/27/15) EOHW 580.5 ft. (IGLD 1985)

8. 1 Hypothetically

9. 1 2

10. 1 2 3

11. 1 2 34

12. 1 2 34 5

13. 1 2 34 5 6

14. Lake Michigan Water Levels ~ 580.8 IGLD 1985

15. EOHWM 1

16. 2

17. 3

18. 4

19. 5

20. Extra-OHWM 6

21. EOHWM Extra-OHWM 7

22. EOHWM 1 But, in reality

23. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW

24. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 3

25. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34

26. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34 5

27. EOHWM 1 2 34 5 6

28. 1 OR, In Reality

29. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW

30. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 3

31. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34

32. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34 5

33. EOHWM 1 2 34 5 6

34. 1 OR, In Reality

35. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW

36. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 3

37. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34

38. EOHWM 1 2 False EOHW 34 5

39. EOHWM 1 2 34 5 6

42. Legislating the OHWE: dynamics of a fixed line OHWE (Ordinary High Water Elevation) set in elevation +580.5 ft Horizontal registration difference (Threshold) 140 ft OHW Elevation 1998Swash 1988 1998 UM 01 OHW Elevation 1998Swash 1988 2008 UM 01

55. GL Coastal / Shoreland Area Management United States – FEMA National Flood Insurance / Disaster Recovery – NOAA Data Collection – USACE Navigational Servitude State of Michigan – “Submerged” Lands – Public Trust Doctrine – High Risk Erosion Areas – Protected Dunes – High Value Environmental Areas Local Units of Government – Master Planning – Zoning / Subdivision / Special Purpose Regulatory – Infrastructure (roads, water, wastewater)

56. GL Coastal / Shoreland Area Management United States – FEMA National Flood Insurance / Disaster Recovery – NOAA Data Collection – USACE Navigational Servitude State of Michigan – “Submerged” Lands – Public Trust Doctrine – High Risk Erosion Areas – Protected Dunes – High Value Environmental Areas Local Units of Government – Master Planning – Zoning / Subdivision / Special Purpose Regulatory – Infrastructure (roads, water, wastewater)

57. Institutional Complications: General Purpose Units of Local Government http://epa.gov/glnpo/images/glbasin-large.png In Michigan alone: Total: 83 Counties 1,241 Townships 535 Cities/Villages 1,859 Combined Great Lakes: 329 Combined

58. Current Conditions Problems / Vision Solutions / Initiatives Analysis: Measurement / Quantification Causal Connections Land Suitability Analysis Scenario Analysis Technocratic Collaborative + Fiscal Impact General Comprehensive / Master Planning Climate Adaptation Planning + Institutional Complications: Planning / Development Mgt Process

59. Scenario-Based Planning Development Future Condition LuckyLikelyPerfect Storm CurrentScenario 1A Land Use Environmental Fiscal Scenario 1BScenario 1C Potential Build outScenario 2AScenario 2BScenario 2C PlannedScenario 3AScenario 3BScenario 3C Best ManagementScenario 4AScenario 4BScenario 4C

60. Future Conditions Possible Futures (not predictions) Varying: – Storminess – Great Lakes standing water levels Derived by: – FEMA FIRMs – FEMA HAZUS “Planning storm” ~ 50 year storm

61. Future Conditions (Forecasts) Lucky: – All-time low lake water levels, no wave action (VE) – Current FIRM base flood elevations – Planning storm ~ current 2% storm Likely: – Long-term mean lake water levels – Proposed FIRM base flood elevations + VE – Planning storm ~ current 1% storm (more stormy) Perfect Storm: – All-time high lake water levels – Proposed FIRM base flood elevations + VE + X – Planning storm ~ current 0.2% storm (super stormy)

66. Development Current Potential Build out – Not a prediction; rather – Reasonable forecast of what could be built given current zoning

67. Land Use: FEMA FIRMs CURRENTGrand Haven CityGrand Haven Township Within hazard zones:LuckyLikelyLuckyLikely Total Area (acres)729911 (24.9% increase)17681909 (7.9% increase) Parcels101259 (156% increase)86129 (50% increase) Structures78239 (159% increase)4696 (109% increase) Units668692 (3.6% increase)699809 (15.7% increase) Roads (miles)3.57.9 (126% increase)1.51.9 (26.7% increase) BUILD OUTGrand Haven CityGrand Haven Township Within hazard zones:LuckyLikelyLuckyLikely Total Area (acres)729911 (24.9% increase)17681909 (7.9% increase) Parcels Structures367983 (168% increase)483645 (33.5% increase) Units Roads (miles)3.57.91.51.9

68. Change in Environmental Areas LuckyLikelyPerfect Storm Environmental Area (Acres) Wetlands1,2061,2591,311 Protected Dunes8178 Tree Canopy185219235 Impervious Surface407487

69. Fiscal: FEMA FIRMs Approximate Damage / Loss CURRENTGrand Haven CityGrand Haven Township Within hazard zones:LuckyLikelyLuckyLikely Total Units668692699809 Total Tax Base ($) 46.5 mil 54.5 mil 107.7 mil 136.5 mil Potential Property Tax Loss ($) 1.6 – 2.5 mil 1.9 – 2.9 mil (17% Increase) 2.8 – 4.8 mil3.5 – 6.0 mil (28% Increase)

70. Fiscal: FEMA HAZUS Storm Damage / Recovery Costs CURRENTGrand Haven CityGrand Haven Township LuckyLikelyLuckyLikely Building related ($) 4.59 mil 8.56 mil 400.15 mil 498.56 mil Business interruption 0% 1% 0% % of loss residential 47.9%49.7%35.1%36.9% Total Economic Loss ($)4.60 mil8.63 mil (88% Increase) 401.52 mil500.25 mil (25% Increase)

71. Environmental: BMPs Best Management Practices by Category Grand Haven CityGrand Haven Township RatioPercentRatioPercent All practices (144 total)71/1444924/14417 Wetlands8/16508/1650 Environmental Areas8/10802/1020 Soil Erosion and Sedimentation7/16444/1625 Inland Lakes and Streams6/30200/300 Natural Rivers4/6670/60 Floodplains11/12922/1217 High Risk Erosion Areas10/16634/1625 Sand Dunes10/18564/1822 Open Space2/21001/250 Misc.3/18171/186

72. Questions?