1. CLIC RF structure development meeting Structure cost study (introduction) G. Riddone, 18.08.2010

2. Content G. Riddone, 18/08/20102  Introduction and method  Learning curves  Manufacturing flow  Parameters affecting the cost  Some comparative numbers  Cost study in industries

3. Introduction G. Riddone, 18/08/20103 Accelerating structures  Two cases are considered:  Accelerating superstructures in quadrants  Accelerating superstructures in disks  For both cases:  Sealed structures  Diffusion bonding at ~1000 ˚C under hydrogen  3 production lines PETS  Octants and mini tank concept  3 production lines

4. Method G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 4 Definition of the manufacturing flow Prototype cost based on current design Application of learning curves Calculation of cumulative cost Calculation of average unit cost Identification of the main steps Usually cost of the first third/fourfh unit

5. Learning curve - Theory T.P. Wright, Factors affecting the cost of airplanes, Journ. Aero. Sci. (1936) Unit cost c(n) of nth unit produced with a = « learning percentage », i.e. remaining cost fraction when production is doubled Cumulative cost of first nth units with C(n)/n = average unit cost of first nth units produced n = number per production line ≠ total number in project We have to define c(1) and a 5G. Riddone, 18/08/2010

6. Learning percentage G. Riddone, 18/08/20106 Typical learning percentage values (NASA Learning Curve Calculator)

7. Learning percentage 7 G. Riddone, 18/08/2010

8. Accelerating structures DISKS (142812) G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 8 3. Assembly and brazing 285624 couplers 6. Baking 71406 ss 6. Baking 71406 ss 5. Final bonding and assembly (HOM, manifolds), incl. RF check - 71406 ss Sequence 2. Machining 4284360 disks (including HOM, manifolds), QC and cleaning 2. Machining 4284360 disks (including HOM, manifolds), QC and cleaning 4.Alignment and bonding 71406 disk stacks 4.Alignment and bonding 71406 disk stacks 8 couplers /cycle [35703 cycles] 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] Assumptions: 1 as = 30 disks Bonding of superstructures (2 as) 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] a: 0.93 a: 0.85 a: 0.9 1. Raw material a:1 a: 0.85

9. Accelerating structures QUADRANTS (142812) G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 9 6. Baking 71406 ss 6. Baking 71406 ss 5. Final bonding and assembly (HOM, manifolds), incl. RF check - 71406 ss Sequence 2. Machining 285624 quadrants (including HOM, manifolds), QC and cleaning 2. Machining 285624 quadrants (including HOM, manifolds), QC and cleaning 4. Alignment and bonding 71406 structures 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] Assumptions: 1 as = 4 quadrants Bonding of superstructures (2 as) 4 ss/cycle [17852 cycles] a: 0.93 a: 0.9 1. Raw material a:1 a: 0.85

10. PETS (71406) G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 10 7. Baking 71406 7. Baking 71406 6. Final bonding and assembly (HOM, minitanks), incl. RF check - 71406 6. Final bonding and assembly (HOM, minitanks), incl. RF check - 71406 Sequence 2. Machining 571248 bars (including HOM), QC and cleaning 2. Machining 571248 bars (including HOM), QC and cleaning 5. Brazing 71406 couplers 8 couplers/cycle [8926 cycles] 8 ss/cycle [8926 cycles] a: 0.92 a: 0.9 1. Raw material a:1 a: 0.85 4. Machining 71406 couplers, QC and cleaning 4. Machining 71406 couplers, QC and cleaning 3. Machining 71406 minitanks, QC and cleaning 3. Machining 71406 minitanks, QC and cleaning a: 0.92 Assumptions: 1 PETS: 8 bars, 1 coupler Mini-tank concept

11. Some parameters affecting the total cost G. Riddone, 18/08/201011  Choice of learning factor (+++)  Saturation value: value above which learning stops, no average cost reduction (negligible)  Number of production lines (+)

12. Learning factor G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 12 CLIC

13. Saturation G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 13 Examples [a= 0.9]: Sat 0.8  learning process stops after 80 % of the production Cumulative cost increase 0.31 % Sat 0.5  learning process stops after 50 % of the production Cumulative cost increase 2.7 % For CLIC RF structure quantities

14. Influence of production lines 14 G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 (no saturation) Examples [a = 0.9]: Cost increase of 18% from 1to 3 production lines

15. RF structure cost G. Riddone, 18/08/2010 15 Accelerating structures Cost of test structure disk (ref. VDL) Cost of 300-mm quadrant (ref. VDL) linearly scaled to 500-mm quadrant (maybe optimistic) Cost of machining = 90 % of total Total cost of machining of AS in quadrants  = 75 % Total cost of machining of AS in disks PETS Cost of PETS octant @ 11.4 GHz (ref. VDL, Unitek) Cost of machining: 75 % of total

16. Two beam module cost G. Riddone, 18/08/201016 BREAKDOWN  RF system: 65 %  Alignment system: 10 %  Supporting system: 6 %  Magnet system: 5 %  Beam instrumentation: 5%  Magnet powering system: 3%  Vacuum system: 2.5 %  Other systems: 3.5 % The highest contribution!

17. Industrialization and mass production study G. Riddone, 18/08/201017  Launched industrialization and mass production studies in 3 industries/institutes:  VDL  KERN  VTT/HIP  CLIC structures, with HOM damping material, vacuum material,….  Cost study will include both capital and running cost (CERN cost study only running cost)  Study currently under way.  Analysis of the preliminary results confirm tendency of CERN cost study