1. Revolution, Reform, or Reversal? Scenarios for Belarus in the 2010s Vitali Silitski Research Director, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Brussels, 24 November 2010

2. Source: International Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies (www.iiseps.org)

4. 20012010 Support market economy 54,0 58.8 Support planned economy 24,1 14.1 Support separation of powers 41,1 43.5 Support strong presidency 34,0 29.6 Favor integration with EU37,5 39.1 Favor integration with Russia44,7 24.1 Support current course32,6 38.2 Support change49,0 43.2 Would vote for Lukashenka36.0 39.3 Expectations what a new President should do

9. Belarusian economic model is built in the way that only the state can go bankrupt – once and for all. This eases the pain of adjustment on the society but makes reform extremely difficult in the longer run

10. Lukashenka’s transformation, 2007-2010 Forced adjustment to higher energy prices Some energy security Periodic macroeconomic adjustment (political business cycle) Wooing FDI Liberalizing conditions for small business Price liberalization Debureaucratization and improvement in the quality of governance No political democratization No structural reforms (including reforming large SOEs) Low commitment to macroeconomic stability Foreign debt as ad-hoc solution Geopolitical balancing as substitute for both political and economic reforms

11. ‘Quasi-Chinese scenario’ as a blueprint for the 2010s: plans and limitations Two track economy: freedom in greenfields and small business, control everywhere Political democratization off the table Bargaining with external players only Status quo meant to stay indefinitely Investment is deterred by the lack of structural reforms Political pressure intensifies from BOTH East and the West Need to engage with new constitutencies (dialogue with entrepreneurs on liberalization) Subsiding of geopolitical competition reduces the space for traditional maneuvering between East and West. Understanding that ‘presidents won’t last forever’

12. Goals for 2010s Paramount goal – political survival –Dealing with the consequences of political business cycle –New basis for economic growth –Energy security –‘Correcting’ the social contract- including channels for representation and feedback –New balance in foreign relations

13. Scenarios for the 2010s Reversal to mid-2000s (with possible transfer of power to the older son) Status quo ‘quasi-Chinese scenario’ ‘Managed democracy’ ‘Pacted transition’ (parties to the pact are external rather than domestic actors’

14. Scenarios for the 2010s.