1. © GEO Secretariat Overall Concept What? B08FDP Forecast Demonstration Project (Nowcasting) B08RDP Research & Development Project (Ensemble Prediction Systems) Why? Establishing strong and effective connection and collaboration between research, operational use, and end users When? August 2008 Motivation Demonstration: how the state-of-the-art now-casting and mesoscale ensemble prediction systems can provide an improved weather service Capacity Building: to show the value of technology transfer and promote capacity building Early Achievement WE-07-02: Beijing Olympics

2. © GEO Secretariat Participating Members and Organizations B08FDP:Seven participating systems Australia: STEPS from Australian Bureau of Meteorology and TIFS from Australian Bureau of Meteorology Canada: CARDS from Environment Canada China: Beijing-ANC from BMB, GRAPES from CAMS, and SWIRLS from HK US: NIWOT from NCAR Co-leads: AREP/WMO and CMA/China, and B08 FDP SSC/ B08 RDP SSC Management B08RDP Six participating systems + ECMWF(new) Canada: MSC’s regional EP system China and US: BMB, NCAR and NMC’s joint 3-hour rapid update cycle data assimilation and short-term forecasting system US: NCEP’s new version SREF (based on the WRF model with both NMM and ARW dynamic cores) Japan: JMA’s global/meso-scale EP system China: NMC’s WRF based meso-scale EP system and CAMS’ GRAPES Meso- scale EP system France and Austria: Météo-France and Austrian weather service ZAMG’s joint regional EP system ECMWF Early Achievement WE-07-02: Beijing Olympics

3. © GEO Secretariat B08FDP Activities, Milestones and Schedule for 2007 Main Activities: Tuning and improving participating systems for suiting local nowcasting in Beijing Real-time transmission nowcasting products. Establishing real-time forecast verification system. Setup nowcasting information integration system for forecasters. Enhanced forecaster training. Demonstrate the societal, social and economic impact of advanced nowcasting systems Forecast demonstration for B08 Olympics Milestones: Good performance of nowcasting systems and can support forecaster in real-time after second trial period. Build real-time verification system and information integration system that help forecasters using FDP products. Enhanced forecaster training, and forecaster can use FDP products in their routine tasks Forecast Demonstration during the Olympics Time Schedule for 2007 CMA conducts product training for forecaster: April 2007 All participating groups will conduct second trial runs for the period of 1–20 July 2007. 3nd FDP workshop in September 2007. Early Achievement WE-07-02: Beijing Olympics

4. © GEO Secretariat B08RDP Activities, Milestones and Schedule for 2007 and 2008 Main Activities Tuning and improving 15 kilometer EPS systems. Real-time transmission EPS products. B08RDP take WMO GRIB2 standard format for coding, same as TIGGE format. Enlarging EPS variables and products, and their verification. Forecaster training. Starting 3 kilometer cloud resolving model comparison, for poor-man ensemble Set up real-time cloud-resolving rapid update cycle (RUC) system to support FDP Take B08RDP as one of TIGGE forecast demonstration project in 2008. Milestones Good performance of 15 kilometer EPS systems and can support forecaster in real-time after second test period. Enhanced forecaster training, and forecaster can use EPS products in their routine tasks Setup RUC system to support nowcasting Schedule for 2007 Forecaster training in April 2007 3-km system (WRF 3D-Var/WRF) starts real-time running in April 2007 Finalize the MEPS products as required by forecasters by April 2007 Finalize coding format for data transfer for GRIB2 by June 2007 All the 15km EPSs will conduct second trial runs from 24 July to 24 Aug 2007 RDP workshop in September 2007 Early Achievement WE-07-02: Beijing Olympics

5. © GEO Secretariat Schedule, Key Milestones 07Q1 Start 07Q3 Systems trial and training workshop 08Q3 Demonstration and outreach activities 09Q2-Q3 Summary meeting or workshop Deliverables Development of fully operational use nowcasting systems and pre- operational use mesoscale data assimilation and ensemble prediction systems. Training workshops for capacity building. GEO outreach activities organized during Beijing 2008 Olympic Game. Early Achievement WE-07-02: Beijing Olympics

6. © GEO Secretariat What Role for the Beijing Olympics Projects in the context of the Ministerial Summit? -Not GEO projects per se -Credit to be given to countries and organizations that initiated & conducted the Projects However -Contribution to GEOSS implementation already an indication that GEO is working as a process -Major future opportunities for GEO Members to benefit from Beijing Olympics Projects experience and lessons learned re. nowcasting & EPS capability transfer