2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS RUSSIA PART 2: WINDSTORMS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric- hydrospheric interactions create situations favorable for WINDSTORMS

4. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN RUSSIA FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

5. RUSSIA

6. Russia, the largest country in the world, and the only one surrounded by twelve seas and spread out on two continents, has communities at risk from windstorms

7. The sea temperatures around Russia are usually too low to generate severe windstorm (cyclone) conditions

8. SO, RUSSIA’S WINDSTORMS ARE DIFFERENT Some are snow cyclones Some, like Windstorm Dagmar, originate long distances away where water and air temperatures are more favorable.

9. WINDSTORM DAGMAR: DECEMBER 28, 2011

10. DAGMAR ORIGINATED IN SPAIN

11. IMPACTS OF DAGMAR As Dagmar moved across Russia north of St. Petersburg with its hurricane-force winds, rain, and snow, it caused power outages, tree-downing's, flooding, landslides and other societal disruptions.

12. DIMENSIONS OF DAGMAR Some wind gusts reached 233 kph (145 mph), according to Norway’s Meteorological Institute, which described Dagmar as possibly the third worst windstorm of the past 50 years.

13. KYRILL STORM: JANUARY 2007 An unusual storm, Kyrill formed over Newfoundland on January 15, 2007, moved across the Atlantic Ocean crossing the North Sea on January 17- 18, making landfall on the German and Dutch coasts late on January 18. By January 19, It had moved on to Poland and the Baltic Sea, reaching northern Russia.

14. OVERALL IMPACTS Kyrill caused widespread damage across Western Europe, especially in the UK and Germany. 47 fatalities were reported, as well as extensive disruptions of public transport, power outages to over one hundred thousand homes, severe damage to public and private buildings and major forest damage.

15. SNOW CYCLONE EXTENDS FREEZING TEMPS INTO SIBERIA: OCT. 20, 2007

16. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

17. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

18. THE SEVERE WINDSTORM HAZARDS (Note: Usually worse than in Russia) ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

19. HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

20. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

21. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH RUSSIA’S COMMUNITIES

22. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods…) intersect at a point in space and time.

23. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

24. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

25. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

26. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

27. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

28. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

29. THE ALTERNATIVE TO A WINDSTORM DISASTER IS WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE

30. RUSSIA’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS WINDSTORM HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

31. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY WINDSTORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

32. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI- FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

33. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

34. ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, RUSSIA’S NEXT WINDSTORM IS INEVITABLE ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT.

35. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMINMG WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT

36. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

37. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

38. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY

39. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

40. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)