1. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’ 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

3. What was the significance of Ehrlich’s 2002 victory? Was this a personal victory for Bob Ehrlich, or a general victory for the Republican Party and new policy priorities? 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

4. Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

5. 2002 vs. 2006 Ehrlich drops from 51.6% to 47.7% 879,592 votes to 825,464 (-54,128) Dem rises from 813,422 to 942, 279 (+128,857) Ehrlich’s largest drop in counties that were most supportive in 2002 – down 7% from 67% to 60% in ’02 majority counties Small drop in least supportive jurisdictions – down from 29% to 27% 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

6. 2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland? Counties by Republican Score Strong R 60+ Rep score Leans R 55-59 Rep score Contested 45-54 Rep score Leans D 40-44 Rep score Strong D 0-39 Rep score Jurisdiction Ehrlich '06 Rep Local offices Rep Gen AssemRep Score Carroll70100 90 Garrett67100--84 Caroline667810081 Frederick60828877 Harford63777572 Washington61737570 Allegany57677566 Kent553310063 Somerset592710062 Queen Anne's6755--61 Anne Arundel57645659 Calvert5755--56 Talbot6445--55 Dorchester61257554 Wicomico6343--53 Cecil5833--46 Worcester65383345 St. Mary's58452543 Howard49255041 Baltimore5173029 Charles4892527 Montgomery370313 Baltimore City23008 Prince George's21007

7. Composite Picture – 2006 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

8. Trends in Party Registration - Statewide 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

9. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128 Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592 Democratic defections (and other party registrants): 2002 - 148464 2006 - 11927 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

10. Anne Arundel Only Results

11. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

12. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Focus

13. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%) Party Registration EhrlichO’MalleyOthersDidn’t vote Case s Democrats177936180 Republicans891001167 Unaffiliated54406050 Other8380812 2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results

14. What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4% Issue Type of PollClosed-ended IssueClosedOpenEhrlichO’Malley Economy2155344 Education18 4357 Taxes1686931 Crime1345540 Growth836239 Cost of living6350 Slots638020 Healthcare501388 Environment334060 Work with legislature302575 College tuition326040 Nothing cited051 Total100 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race - Anne Arundel County

15. Type of SurveyClosed-ended TraitsOpenClosedEhrlichO’Malley Honesty, trustworthy 33104456 All others 210-- Party 70-- Leadership, competence, has a plan 7225545 Clear, straightforward, forthright 60-- Generally likeable character 60-- Persistent, consistent 50-- Right experience 4256931 Past record 30-- Integrity/right moral outlook 3217322 Overall beliefs 30-- Family man 261090 Understand the needs of others 0122075 Works well with others 041486 Total100 Traits Motivating Vote for Governor Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues? How informed? Govr Cty Exec. Very5634 Somewh at3745 Not very721 Total100

16. Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exceeds Party Expectations? 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

17. Anne Arundel County Only: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Age

18. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Exit Poll: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Gender

19. Demographics and Vote for Governor - Race 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

20. Demographics: Lower income negates Ehrlich vote advantage on education Lower IncomeHigher Income 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

21. Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

22. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

23. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republicans dominate absentee/provisional ballots

24. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Results

25. Anne Arundel Only: Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party (short form) RepublicansDemocratsDidn’t Vote EhrlichLeopoldO’MalleyJohnsonGovr.County Exec. Cases Democrats1722797464180 Republicans8980101415167 Unaffiliated543940550650 Other83428 81712 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

26. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Changes in County Executive Vote from Governor by Partisanship

27. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

28. County Executive Candidates: Issues and Traits Traits and the Vote for County Executive Issues and the Vote for County Executive 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

29. Age/Education and County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Vote and Demographics

30. Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate InfluenceOverallLeopoldJohnsonCases The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself 138020 Information from the Internet 13653020 Literature received in the mail 15633324 Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun 14574423 Newspaper stories about candidate 20475032 Conversations with friends or family 22415137 I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11415317 Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33395954 Paid ads in the newspapers 538638 Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 538508 Paid ads on TV 15296724 I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc. 8277311 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

31. County Council: Districts firm up partisan images 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

32. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Schools and Taxes Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools% I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost.50 I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes.36 Other volunteered answer7 No answer7 Total100 Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase ? Position % Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes. 25 Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services 20 Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services. 43 Other volunteered answer 6 No answer 7 Total 100

33. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? ResponsePercent The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services 31 The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases 55 Some other volunteered answer8 No answer7 Total101

34. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

35. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact? Since the Elections: BRAC

36. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals ProposalAgreeDisagreeNo answer Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads76213 Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured. 72271 Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars68293 Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards 51409 Repealing the death penalty in Maryland33589

37. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval