1. RobOff methods and outputs 1.Uncertainty (info-gap) 2.Conservation value 3.Output space 4.Flow of aggregation and time discounting 5.Simple and score features

2. α=0α=0.5α=1α=2 Based on info-gap theory, non-probabilistic Robust / opportunity values within interval of variation Variable degree of uncertainty: α Uncertainty model

3. Roughly, 3 classes of outputs: – Conservation value and sustainability over time – Optimal allocation of resources – Comparison / sensitivity / trade-off curves Simple: index of value and/or sustainability Time series Multiple dimensions (filters) Specific results are slices / snapshots / subsets / etc. of the global result space Optimal allocation: (recursively) depends on the output space Outputs

4. The RobOff output space (1/2) Dimensions mainly related to ecological entities:

5. The RobOff output space (2/2) Dimensions mainly related to human decision (socio-economic): weak: ~average vs. Strong: ~minimum

6. Example occurrence values (response curves): – Condition of a habitat in [0,1] – Population size (# of individuals) – Habitat hectares of forest – Number of eggs saved – Tons of carbon sequestrated – Jobs created Occurrence values => Conservation value – benefit functions: from occurrence to value Simplest option (not necessarily best): – Transform occurrence => cons. value by a linear function – Value can be directly interpreted* Variants (substitutability): – Weak vs. strong Variants (uncertainty): – Robust (min), nominal (avg), opportunity (maximum) Conservation value

7. More is better (diminishing return) Score Target Structural component (canopy cover) Less is better (invasive) Predefined + custom benefit functions Input: benefit functions/transforms

8. Typical summary of results RobustNominal Opport unity Conservation value No action0.68840.77150.8226 Mandatory actions0.60120.74590.8407 Optimal actions0.89400.94621.017 Sustainability ratio Weak for environments1.0721.1981.425 Strong for environments0.96551.0011.153 Weak for features1.0901.2261.486 Strong for features0.68630.99741.000

9. Output: expected development of conservation value through time Compare short- and long-term outcomes

10. Output: robust performance (sustainablility) ratio (e.g. Offsets) Example: how much effective compensation depending on undertainty?

11. Output: optimal allocation between actions Example: safe choice under high uncertainty?

12. Flexible cost models, “Economy of size” Cost-area curves

13. Aggregation of conservation value (1) For all the time steps in the planning horizon (using discounting) For different robustness requirements (robust, nominal, opp.) For all features For every environment where a feature occurs For all the actions (land-use options) allocated in an env. aggregate conservation value (occurrence => benefit) (Step 1: integrate score features (later))

14. Aggregation of conservation value (2) → Step 1: integrate score features → 2-step aggregation process

15. No explicit distinction between development / conservation actions Reference point (“0” time) – Beware: shifting baseline Scale or range of values: normalization / rescaling of responses and benefit functions Some practical considerations

16. Pay attention to: – Uncertainty – Time Explicit spatial information avoided for practical reasons => what about connectivity? Avoided: dynamic interactions between features Scalable: 10³ -10 4 environments and actions Combined use of RobOff and spatial planning tools in a 2 stage process Comments / limitations

17. Methodological: – Pouzols FM, Burgman M, Moilanen A (2012). Methods for allocation of habitat management, maintenance, restoration and offsetting, when conservation actions have uncertain consequences. Biological Conservation, 153: 41- 50. Pouzols FM, Burgman M, Moilanen A (2012). Methods for allocation of habitat management, maintenance, restoration and offsetting, when conservation actions have uncertain consequences. Biological Conservation, 153: 41- 50. – Pouzols FM, Moilanen A (2013) RobOff: software for analysis of alternative land-use options and conservation actions. Methods in ecology and evolution, 4: 426-432. Pouzols FM, Moilanen A (2013) RobOff: software for analysis of alternative land-use options and conservation actions. Methods in ecology and evolution, 4: 426-432. Applications: – Several manuscripts are currently under review. More details coming soon! References