1. New Tools for Epidemiology Maps and Reports NPDN Epidemiology Committee Leonard Coop Oregon State University January 30, 2007

4. Components and current research efforts  Hos t  Pathoge n  Environmen t - Local and regional field monitoring - First responders - Plant quarantine - Watch lists -Spore trapping -PCR rapid diagnosis -Remote sensing  NPDN database - Modes of transport - Storm reconstruction - Pest and disease models Epidemiology of new and invasive species:

5. Weather and Degree-day Concepts  Degree-day models: accumulate a daily "heat unit index" (DD total) until some event is expected (e. g. egg hatch) 38 20 18 32 14 22 20 26 daily: cumulative: 20 70 84 106 126 152 Eggs hatch: 152 cumulative DDs Eggs start developing: 0 DDs 70 o(avg) - 50 o(threshold) =20 DD

6. 48-state US Degree-day mapping calculator

7. Online Models - IPPC New - date of event phenology maps – we will test if “date” prediction maps are easier to use than “degree-day” prediction maps

8. Plant disease risk models:  Like insects, plant pathogens respond to temperature in a more-or less linear fashion.  Unlike insects, we measure development in degree-hours rather than degree-days.  In addition, many plant pathogens also require moisture at least to begin an infection cycle.  Disease risk models are not epidemiological – unless they include inoculum levels, population increase, etc.

9. Online Models - IPPC Plant disease models online – National Plant Disease Risk System (in development w/USDA) Model outputs shown w/input weather data for veracity GIS user interface

11. Asian Soybean Rust Layer – Data from NPDN, CERIS Asian Soybean Rust Positive Counties – Red Negative Counties – Green, otherwise not sampled

12. Screen shots from interactive CERIS NPDN server showing map layer ported from DD 50 F lay generated at OSU to and ported over to CERIS. at Purdue in Indiana

13. Screen shots from interactive CERIS NPDN server showing map layer ported from DD 50 F lay generated at OSU to and ported over to CERIS. at Purdue in Indiana overlayed with SBR observations

14. And the 41 degree day layer

15. And for 32 degree day layer

18. Integrated GIS Platforms Distributed Integrated Interfaced National Database, Managed locally, distributed nationally

19. Models provide quantitative estimates of pest activity and behavior (often hard to detect): they can take out much of the guess work of timing control measures Models are often approved BMPs (Best Management Practices), proper spray timing is a risk mitigation practice Models can be tied to local biological and weather inputs for custom predictions, and account for local population variations and terrain differences Models can be tied to forecasted weather to predict future events Why weather-driven models for IPM/NPDN ?