1. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 1 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 bear@oss.net People (Diplomacy) Regional Deference Government (Justice) Home Front Defense Military (Defense) 911 Swarm Total Force

2. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 2 Conflict Facts for 2000 26 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

3. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 3 Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000 HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

4. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 4 3. Area of Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 Roughly 18 Genocides Today, 16 Emerging Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

5. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 5 Collateral Specifics for 2000 Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

6. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 6 Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6

7. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 7 I Think, Ergo I Save I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy. Senator Sam Nunn

8. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 8 Four Threat Types PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR

9. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 9 HIC/MRC 1/3 leap forward* 1/3 anti-old technologies 1/3 focus on people SOLIC/LEA 1/3 sensing technology* 1/3 peace/civil technology 1/3 focus on people IO/ECON 1/3 electronic security* 1/3 counterintelligence 1/3 economic intelligence MINDWAR 1/3 historical thinking 1/3 cultural thinking 1/3 strategic thinking RMA in Context *RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

10. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 10 HIC/MRC Current: $276B Needed: $286B SOLIC/LEA Current: $25B Needed: $35B IO/ECON Current: $5B Needed: $10B MINDWAR Current: $25B Needed: $45B Spending Imbalances *RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

11. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 11 HIC/MRC 80% of the DoD Budget 75% Active/25% Reserve 75% USG/25% Private SOLIC/LEA 20% of the DoD Budget 50% Active 50% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private IO/ECON 10% of the DoD Budget (+) 50% Active/50% Reserve 25% USG/75% Private MINDWAR 10% of the DoD Budget (+) 25% Active/75% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private Transformative Spending

12. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 12 1 + iii (four forces, four slices) Intelligence + Strategy = Will Support to Diplomatic Operations SOLIC, PKO, and TCF Global and Regional Conflict Violent States Violent Non-States Non-Violent Non-States Home Defense

13. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 13 TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW 21st Century “C4I”

14. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 14 Executive Congress Law Enforcement Diplomacy Military Judiciary Private Sector Allies National Power 21st Century Civil-Military Relations

15. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 15 From the Sea...

16. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 16 Minimalist Budget Fixes Program 50 Modifications Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0) Kill Missile Defense (-3.0) Kill new attack sub (-2.0) Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0) Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0) Build 450-ship Navy (+5) Build the iii in 1+iii (+5) TOTAL: -10B/Year Net Program 150 Increases Digital Marshall Plan (+2) DGNI & GKF (+2) State Operations (+1) AIDx2 Water Focus (+2) Peace Corps x5 (+1) USIA + Culture (+1) NGO Subsidies (+1) TOTAL: +10B/Year

17. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 17 450-Ship Navy

18. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 18 Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 M1A1 Tank or 1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water

19. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 19 I Think, Ergo I Save Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short Organization of Government Must Change Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change Transformation through “Thinking People” National Security begins with Day-to-Day Good Will--Peace Corps, AID, USIA, State

20. ® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 20 Online & Contact Information Contract Information: Mr. Robert D. Steele, CEO OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc. Post Office Box 369 Oakton, VA 22124-0369 Voice: (703) 242-1700 Fax: (703) 242-1711 Email: bear@oss.net Web: www.oss.net Record copy of this brief with notes: www.oss.net/Papers/white/1+iii.ppt