1. Steven Deller Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin – Madison/Extension The “Drivers” of Crime

3. Top Ten State Expenditures

4. The “Drivers” of Crime

10. Barron5.1 Vilas55.1 Buffalo7.2 Langlade56.5 Wood9.4 Sauk56.6 Walworth9.9 Jefferson56.6 Lafayette12.3 Jackson57.1 Shawano16.1 Grant59.4 Portage18.8 Rusk66.4 Trempealeau19.0 Richland69.1 Green Lake19.2 Adams72.0 Lincoln21.0 Pepin72.8 Green26.2 Dunn77.0 Monroe27.1 Marquette83.2 Marinette28.9 Juneau91.9 Door29.6 Burnett93.0 Vernon34.3 Washburn98.0 Oneida37.2 Ashland107.0 Manitowoc39.5 Florence114.7 Dodge44.6 Polk125.0 Waushara45.5 Iron143.5 Clark48.9 Sawyer149.3 Waupaca50.0 Price162.2 Taylor52.7 Bayfield167.2 Crawford52.8 Forest208.8 Violent Crime Rate: Average 2005-2007

11. The “Drivers” of Crime Manitowoc299.5 Iron840.8 Dodge305.3 Crawford869.5 Wood317.0 Clark871.1 Pepin332.2 Taylor873.9 Ashland363.4 Lafayette883.5 Walworth369.0 Waupaca895.9 Grant378.2 Adams911.6 Trempealeau411.9 Rusk912.3 Green457.7 Vilas938.4 Buffalo501.3 Juneau949.5 Green Lake515.3 Marquette996.0 Vernon523.0 Marinette1016.0 Price542.2 Sauk1040.7 Portage542.8 Shawano1103.8 Jefferson555.7 Langlade1255.4 Barron561.5 Waushara1293.7 Monroe564.7 Washburn1347.4 Dunn594.8 Jackson1371.7 Lincoln665.5 Bayfield1496.4 Oneida755.0 Forest1569.2 Richland761.5 Sawyer1642.3 Door769.5 Burnett1928.4 Polk839.6 Florence2529.9 Property Crime Rate: Average 2005-2007

12. The “Drivers” of Crime The study of crime is composed of two parts: The first is criminology which seeks to address the question what influence society has on crime. This can be social/cultural and economic. The second is criminal justice which focuses on public institutions and political elements. Criminology focuses on how to prevent crime, criminal justice focuses on how society responses to crime.

13. The “Drivers” of Crime

14. Anomie/Strain Theory Social Disorganization Theory Rational Economic Theory  Emphasizes social, economic and political forces at the macro or community level.  Social norms weak or breakdown.  Conflict/tension within the community.  Emphasizes individual choices and maintains crime can be rational.  Compares benefits of the crime vs costs.  High benefits to the crime vs low risks of capture and incarceration.  Emphasizes individuals and conflicts between goals and means to achieve those goals.  Envy effects between rich and poor.  Frustration with personal economic/social position. Poverty Inequality Social Capital Social Norms Figure 2. Triangulation of the Core Theories of Criminology

15. The “Drivers” of Crime

17. -541.5759 -.0021X R 2 =.1410 F=11.33 (3.37) Figure 3b: Population on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

18. The “Drivers” of Crime -5.5818 -.0261X R 2 =.0421 F=3.03 (1.74) Figure 4b: Median Household Income on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

19. The “Drivers” of Crime -792.7073 + 9.3672X R 2 =.0026 F=.18 (0.42) Figure 5b: Poverty Rate on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

20. The “Drivers” of Crime -668.3695 – 1.1992X R 2 =.0001 F=.01 (0.08) Figure 6b: Youth Poverty Rate on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

21. The “Drivers” of Crime 234.3506 – 3157.6599X R 2 =.0464 F=3.36 (1.83) Figure 7b: Gini Coefficient on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

22. The “Drivers” of Crime 70.7115 –.0145X R 2 =.0756 F=5.64 (2.38) Figure 10b: Median House Value on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

23. The “Drivers” of Crime -1541.1034 + 165.9381X R 2 =.1040 F=8.01 (2.83) Figure 11b: Unemployment Rate on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

24. The “Drivers” of Crime -86.6283 – 44.3736X R 2 =.1016 F=7.80 (2.79) Figure 13b: Percent of the Population Age 25+ with at Least a Bachelor's Degree on Change in Wisconsin County Property Crime Rates

25. The “Drivers” of Crime One area of work that is gaining more attention is the role of social capital One can argue that higher levels of social capital can increase the moral threshold of the potential criminal which in turn reduces the likelihood of committing crime. 1: Risk of capture 2: Pressure to not commit crime

26. The “Drivers” of Crime Following the work of Coleman (1988), Flora and Flora (1993) Putnam (1993 1995), and Turner (1999), Shaffer, Deller and Marcouiller (2004) offer the following definition of social capital: Social capital refers to features of social organization such as networks, norms, and social trust that facilitate coordination and cooperation for mutual benefit. Networks of civic engagement foster norms of general reciprocity and encourage the emergence of social trust. Social capital consists of the social networks in a community, the level of trust between community members, and local norms. These networks, norms and trusts help local people work together for their mutual benefit. (p203-204).

27. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? Many empirical studies that have specifically modeled the relationship between crime and social capital have tended to rely on survey data of individuals where questions aimed at measuring social capital can be more easily crafted (e.g., Kennedy et al. 1998; Rosenfeld, Messner and Baumer 2001; Messner, Baumer and Rosenfeld 2004)

28. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? For this study we follow an approach outlined in Rupasingha, Goetz and Freshwater (2006), Rupasingha and Goetz (2007) and Goetz and Rupasingha (2006) and use a range of secondary data sources to build a set of proxy measures of social capital. In his 2006 Johan Skytte Prize Lecture Putnam (2007) commends the work of Rupasingha and his colleagues in their approach and resulting measures.

29. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? We offer up four blocks of variables designed to capture social capital: 1)Businesses 2)Cooperatives 3)Religious Congregations 4)Non-profits

30. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? Businesses (CBP)  Artisans and cultural per 1K population  Youth and family services per 1K population  Sports and recreational per 1K population  Business, professional and labor (union) associations per 1K population  Food banks per 1K population  Temporary shelters per 1K population  Civic and social organization per 1K population  Barber and beauty shops per 1K population

31. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? Cooperatives (UWCC)  Number of arts cooperatives per 1K population  Number of child care cooperatives per 1K population  Number of educational cooperatives per 1K population  Number of grocery store cooperatives per 1K population

32. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? Church Congregations  Number of Evangelical church congregations per 1K population  Number of Catholic church congregations per 1K population  Number of Jewish synagogues per 1K population  Number of other congregations per 1K population

33. The “Drivers” of Crime How does one measure social capital? Non-profits (IRS 990)  Number of arts, culture, and humanities nonprofits per 1K population  Number of educational nonprofits per 1K population  Number of environmental nonprofits per 1K population  Number of human services nonprofits per 1K population  Number of public and social benefit nonprofits per 1K population  Number of crime and legal nonprofits per 1K population  Number of sports and recreation nonprofits per 1K population  Number of youth development nonprofits per 1K population  Number of civil rights, social action & advocacy nonprofits per 1K population  Number of community improvement & capacity building nonprofits per 1K population

34. The “Drivers” of Crime Control Variables Three blocks:  Social-demographic  Economic (wealth-poverty)  Change

35. The “Drivers” of Crime Table 2: F Tests for Social Capital Violient Crime Rate Robbery Rate Assault Rate Property Crime Rate Burglary Rate Larceny Rate Motor Vehicle Crime Social Capital by Business Concentration1.9930.6002.0274.0553.5393.8483.046 (0.06)(0.88)(0.04)(0.01) Social Capital by Church Concentration0.0005.0660.2121.5603.9470.7151.341 (0.99)(0.01)(0.93)(0.18)(0.01)(0.68)(0.25) Social Capital by Cooperative Concentration0.0420.1470.0790.2200.1290.7152.045 (0.99)(0.96)(0.99)(0.93)(0.97)(0.68)(0.09) Social Capital by Nonprofit Concentration0.8640.2480.9123.4832.7154.6310.707 (0.77)(0.99)(0.52)(0.01) (0.72) Marginal significance in parantheses (p values).

36. The “Drivers” of Crime Violient Crime Rate Robbery Rate Assault Rate Property Crime Rate Burglary Rate Larceny Rate Motor Vehicle Crime Artisans and cultural per 1K population0.205540.019600.214283.804460.702522.889880.28942 (0.30)(0.38)(0.21)(0.00)(0.06)(0.00) Youth and family services per 1K populaiton0.027860.01452-0.00037-0.99218-0.28970-0.67131-0.04145 (0.84)(0.36)(1.00)(0.21)(0.27)(0.22)(0.55) Sports and recreational per 1K populaiton-0.027510.014200.01578-0.64980-0.35297-0.30000-0.01311 (0.86)(0.41)(0.90)(0.45)(0.21)(0.61)(0.86) Business, professional and labor (union) associations per 1K pop-0.13602-0.01965-0.11809-2.40977-0.37893-1.87274-0.18362 (0.44)(0.34)(0.45)(0.02)(0.26)(0.01)(0.04) Food banks per 1K population-0.08318-0.060260.04483-3.07126-0.60053-2.33295-0.09353 (0.87)(0.29)(0.92)(0.27)(0.52)(0.23)(0.71) Temporary shelters per 1K population-0.47571-0.11036-0.38020-3.78533-0.33677-3.06323-0.16409 (0.59)(0.27)(0.62)(0.44)(0.84)(0.37)(0.71) Civic and sociol organization per 1K population-0.307200.01356-0.23922-0.74707-0.64248-0.180040.07435 (0.10)(0.48)(0.10)(0.43)(0.04)(0.78)(0.38) Barber and beauty shops per 1K population-0.37964-0.00219-0.34244-1.27223-0.40791-0.68057-0.21152 (0.02)(0.91)(0.02)(0.18)(0.20)(0.30)(0.01) Marginal significance in parantheses (p values).

37. The “Drivers” of Crime Violient Crime Rate Robbery Rate Assault Rate Property Crime Rate Burglary Rate Larceny Rate Motor Vehicle Crime Number of Evangelical church congregations per 1K pop-0.03450-0.00821-0.033190.269710.103150.18637-0.01595 (0.37)(0.07)(0.33)(0.22)(0.16)(0.23)(0.42) Number of Catholic church congregations per 1K pop-0.017140.00792-0.030860.21703-0.115970.29163-0.02581 (0.85)(0.46)(0.70)(0.68)(0.51)(0.43)(0.58) Number of Jewish synagagues per 1K pop-0.28851-0.396030.21662-10.16647-5.23309-5.52640-0.58405 (0.83)(0.01)(0.86)(0.20)(0.05)(0.32)(0.41) Number of other congregations per 1K pop0.005480.00818-0.005640.411750.205370.20983-0.00585 (0.92)(0.19)(0.91)(0.18)(0.05)(0.33)(0.83) Marginal significance in parantheses (p values).

38. The “Drivers” of Crime Violient Crime Rate Robbery Rate Assault Rate Property Crime Rate Burglary Rate Larceny Rate Motor Vehicle Crime Number of arts, culture, and humanities nonprofits per 1K pop0.081090.014910.131492.806930.392142.360740.13621 (0.58)(0.37)(0.30)(0.00)(0.15)(0.00)(0.06) Number of educational nonprofits per 1K pop0.057080.004020.03797-0.927230.10605-0.91746-0.06365 (0.72)(0.82)(0.77)(0.28)(0.71)(0.12)(0.41) Number of environmental nonprofits per 1K pop0.618880.009840.573422.990281.032341.951900.02994 (0.00)(0.68)(0.00)(0.01) (0.02)(0.78) Number of human services nonprofits per 1K pop-0.001820.002370.001050.284500.098510.111300.02594 (0.98)(0.83)(0.99)(0.58)(0.57)(0.76)(0.58) Number of public and social benefit nonprofits per 1K pop-0.22947-0.00948-0.20024-2.11472-0.58248-1.54747-0.05101 (0.03)(0.45)(0.03)(0.00) (0.35) Number of crime and legal nonprofits per 1K pop-0.28870-0.02248-0.26931-1.619850.21635-1.89470-0.09632 (0.59)(0.72)(0.56)(0.59)(0.83)(0.37)(0.72) Number of sports and recreation nonprofits per 1K pop0.119880.011000.03059-0.13725-0.551160.52224-0.05798 (0.53)(0.62)(0.85)(0.90)(0.13)(0.48)(0.55) Number of youth development nonprofits per 1K pop-1.01884-0.04832-0.77946-5.85342-1.16583-4.00016-0.45249 (0.04)(0.40)(0.07)(0.03)(0.21)(0.04)(0.07) Number of civil rights, social action & advocacy nonprofits per 1K pop-1.088200.01124-1.13428-7.94649-1.77954-5.13766-0.84018 (0.28)(0.92)(0.19)(0.16)(0.35)(0.19)(0.10) Number of community improvement & capacity building nonprofits per 1K pop0.234630.011510.196461.763640.354181.404040.05387 (0.19)(0.58)(0.21)(0.08)(0.30)(0.04)(0.55) Marginal significance in parantheses (p values).

39. The “Drivers” of Crime So, what are the overall conclusions…… Well….It Depends….. There is a lot of contradictory evidence…. It depends on the type of crime that one is talking about….. It is much more than simply poverty…. For rural there is evidence that as a county grows there will be upward pressure placed on crime rates…. There is evidence that certain types of social capital matter, but not always in the way predicted by theory…..

40. The “Drivers” of Crime So, what are the overall conclusions…… “While the research finds that social capital matters both theoretically and empirically, policy options are much more subtle. There is strong evidence that a higher concentration of organizations that allow for networking, such as professional, business, and labor organizations (e.g., chambers of commerce and labor unions), as well as civic, social, and community benefit-focused organizations (e.g., community foundations, fraternal organizations, and alumni associations), is associated with lower rural crime rates.”

41. The “Drivers” of Crime So, what are the overall conclusions…… The results presented here support Reisig and Cancino (2004), who argue that social capital is too broad of a concept with respect to crime and should be more focused on notions of collective value or social norms. Highly organized and effective criminal enterprises could be described as having high levels of social capital. Wojan, McGranajan, and Lambert (2009) make a distinction between civic capacity and social capital.

42. The “Drivers” of Crime So, what are the overall conclusions…… What does social capital mean as a deterrent to crime? Does it mean networking opportunities and density of acquaintance, or does it involve notions of civic capacity and civic engagement? Simply having a chamber of commerce or fraternal organizations or religious based social organizations is not sufficient to deter rural crime. In essence, social capital is necessary but not sufficient to deter crime. By examining why social capital is not sufficient we are beginning to remove the layers of a very complex problem.

43. The “Drivers” of Crime Thanks!