1. McKibben Demographics Belgrade School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 through 2024-25 December 8, 2014 McKibben Demographic Research Jerome McKibben Ph.D. Rock Hill SC J.mckibben@mckibbendemographics.com 978-501-7069

2. McKibben Demographics Assumptions a.There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at anytime during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) b.Interest rates have reached an historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.5%; c.The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2002 levels and lenders do not return to “sub- prime” mortgage practices; d.There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers; e.The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Gallatin County for any year in the forecasts; f.All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by 2023. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2024; g.The unemployment rates for Gallatin County will remain below 4.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;

3. McKibben Demographics Assumptions, continued h.The rate of students transferring into and out of Belgrade Public Schools will remain at the 2008-09 to 2014-15 average; i.The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts; j.There will be no building moratorium within the district; k.Businesses within the district and Gallatin County will remain viable; l.The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year; m.Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 55; n.Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant; o.The recent decline in new home construction has ended and building rates have stabilized; p.The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2007 average for Gallatin County;

4. McKibben Demographics Belgrade, Montana Total Population – 2010 Census

5. McKibben Demographics Heck Quaw Elementary School(Excluding Transfer Area) – 2010 Census

6. McKibben Demographics Ridge View Elementary School – 2010 Census

7. McKibben Demographics Saddle Peak Elementary School – 2010 Census

8. McKibben Demographics Belgrade, Montana Transfer Area – 2010 Census

9. McKibben Demographics Table 3: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

10. McKibben Demographics Table 4: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Districts, 2010 Census

11. McKibben Demographics Table 5: Single Person Households and Single Person Households over age 65 by Elementary Districts, 2010 Census

12. McKibben Demographics Table 7: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Attendance Area: 2010 Census: Less than 1 yr1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 years Heck Quaw170142144123142117120126102123120 Ridge View11110411112510710310993898679 Saddle Peak12013011511411111011191 8582 Total401376370362360330340310282294281

13. McKibben Demographics Comparison of Enrollment by Grade– 2010 Census Under 1 year1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 years11 years12 years13 years 2010 Census Count401376370362360330340310282294281275297281 2014 enrollment 268296272269267288240229216 71.3%80.0%75.1%74.7%80.9%84.7%77.4%81.2%73.5% 2013 enrollment 291281266257283242239217209 78.6%77.6%73.9%77.9%83.2%78.1%84.8%73.8%74.4% 2012 enrollment 269276261292244243232215242 74.3%76.7%79.1%85.9%78.7%86.2%78.9%76.5%88.0% 2011 enrollment 283267295259237214223245223 78.6%80.9%86.8%83.5%84.0%72.8%79.4%89.1%75.1% 2010 enrollment 264294263229217231245223219 80.0%86.5%84.8%81.2%73.8%82.2%89.1%75.1%77.9%

14. McKibben Demographics Chart 1: Residential Building Permitted Units, Belgrade, MT: 2000 to 2013

15. McKibben Demographics Total Population 2010201520202025 Total 0-41,8691,8301,7101,540 5-91,5561,8201,8501,740 10-141,4031,5401,8201,850 15-191,1481,1901,3701,590 20-241,0499109401,120 25-291,7581,4801,3101,330 30-341,8021,8901,6101,460 35-391,6711,8801,9901,710 40-441,3441,6701,8902,030 45-491,4571,3301,6301,860 50-541,430 1,2901,610 55-591,1431,4001,3801,260 60-648151,0501,2301,260 65-695267008901,080 70-74331440580750 75-79212270350460 80-84154150190240 85+114150170180 Total19,78221,13022,20023,070 Median Age33.134.736.237.6 Births1,7201,6201,490 Deaths640740870 Natural Increase1,080880620 Net Migration230 220 Change1,3101,110840 Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

16. McKibben Demographics Belgrade Public Schools: Total District Enrollment 2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-25 K248264283269291268297296295294293294291287282276 1267294267276281296280301300298297296297294289284 2253263295261266272289273297296294293295296293288 3226229259292257269274291277301300298300302303300 4233217237244283267271275296282306305 307309310 Total: K-41227126713411342137813721411143614651471149014861488148614761458 5241231214243242288270274279300286311308 310312 6223245223232239240291273278283305290314311 313 7229223245215217229238288269274279300284308305 8227219223242209216227236282264269273291275299296 Total: 5-89209189059329079731026107111081121113911741197120212251226 9240222219220235210213224231276259264266284268292 10190244213223218225206209218225269253256258275260 11230195225204210215 197199207214256239242244260 12194228183215197214204 188190198204246229232234 Total: 9-128548898408628608648388348368989409771007101310191046 Total: K-123001307430863136314532093275334134093490356936373692370137203730 Total: K-123001307430863136314532093275334134093490356936373692370137203730 Change73125096466 688179685591910 %-Change2.4%0.4%1.6%0.3%2.0%2.1%2.0% 2.4%2.3%1.9%1.5%0.2%0.5%0.3% Total: K-41227126713411342137813721411143614651471149014861488148614761458 Change4074136-6392529619-42-2-10-18 %-Change3.3%5.8%0.1%2.7%-0.4%2.8%1.8%2.0%0.4%1.3%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%-0.7%-1.2% Total: 5-89209189059329079731026107111081121113911741197120212251226 Change-2-1327-2566534537131835235 1 %-Change-0.2%-1.4%3.0%-2.7%7.3%5.4%4.4%3.5%1.2%1.6%3.1%2.0%0.4%1.9%0.1% Total: 9-128548898408628608648388348368989409771007101310191046 Change35-4922-24-26-42624237306627 %-Change4.1%-5.5%2.6%-0.2%0.5%-3.0%-0.5%0.2%7.4%4.7%3.9%3.1%0.6% 2.6%

17. McKibben Demographics Heck/Quaw Elementary 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 K124132141131101931111091071051041031021009896 1144150137130809892108106104102101100999795 21161391541337573948810510310199 989795 31091051371527480749590107105103102 101100 4117109119122838582759893110108107106 105 Total K-4610635688668413429453475506512522514510505499491 Total K-4610635688668413429453475506512522514510505499491 Change2553-20-25516242231610-8-4-5-6-8 % Change4.1%8.3%-2.9%-38.2%3.9%5.6%4.9%6.5%1.2%2.0%-1.5%-0.8%-1.0%-1.2%-1.6%

18. McKibben Demographics Ridge View Elementary 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 K12413214213889969910099 100101100999795 11231441301461079798102103102 103104103102100 2137124141128991099899104105104 106107106105 311712412214087951079698103104103104106107106 41161081181229084931059597102103101102104105 Total K-4617632653674472481495502499506512514515517516511 Total K-4617632653674472481495502499506512514515517516511 Change1521 -2029147-376212-5 % Change2.4%3.3%3.2%-30.0%1.9%2.9%1.4%-0.6%1.4%1.2%0.4%0.2%0.4%-0.2%-1.0%

19. McKibben Demographics Saddle Peak Elementary 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 K00001017987 8990899089888785 10000941019091 92939293929089 200009290978688 8990 919088 300009694931008991 9294 9594 400001109896951039294 9799 100 Total K-40000493462463459460453456458463464461456 Total K-40000493462463459460453456458463464461456 Change000493-311-41-73251-3-5 % Change-6.3%0.2%-0.9%0.2%-1.5%0.7%0.4%1.1%0.2%-0.6%-1.1%

20. McKibben Demographics Belgrade Middle School 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 5241231214243242288270274279300286311308 310312 6223245223232239240291273278283305290314311 313 7229223245215217229238288269274279300284308305 8227219223242209216227236282264269273291275299296 Total: 5-89209189059329079731026107111081121113911741197120212251226 Total: 5-89209189059329079731026107111081121113911741197120212251226 Change-2-1327-2566534537131835235 1 % Change-0.2%-1.4%3.0%-2.7%7.3%5.4%4.4%3.5%1.2%1.6%3.1%2.0%0.4%1.9%0.1%

21. McKibben Demographics Belgrade High School 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12 2012- 13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 2017- 18 2018- 19 2019- 20 2020- 21 2021- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 2024- 25 9240222219220235210213224231276259264266284268292 10190244213223218225206209218225269253256258275260 11230195225204210215 197199207214256239242244260 12194228183215197214204 188190198204246229232234 Total: 9-128548898408628608648388348368989409771007101310191046 Total: 9-128548898408628608648388348368989409771007101310191046 Change35-4922-24-26-42624237306627 % Change4.1%-5.5%2.6%-0.2%0.5%-3.0%-0.5%0.2%7.4%4.7%3.9%3.1%0.6% 2.6%