2. Probability

3. Pull a Marker! 4 orange 2 green 2 blue 3 red

4. What Are We Learning About Today? What probability is and how it is measured How to find probability of basic situations How to apply probability in your everyday life Why probability is important

5. Warm Up There are 25 students in class, and you are one of them. If Mr. Valdez and Mrs. Miklasz plan on asking 100 questions today and everyone has an equal chance of being called on, about how many times would you expect to be called for an answer? 4 times

6. Warm Up There are 25 students in class, and you are one of them. If Mr. Valdez and Mr. Paskvan plan on asking 100 questions today and everyone has an equal chance of being called on, about how many times would you expect to be called for an answer? 4 times

7. What is Probability? Definition: Definition: Probability is a numeric measure between 0 and 1 that estimates how likely an event is to occur. How it’s read: This number will be a decimal, but we understand it as a percentage. Example Example: If the probability is.87, then there is an 87% chance that the event will occur.

8. How Do We Calculate Probability? favorable outcomes total outcomes probability

9. Let’s Make Sure We’re Ready! How many total events are possible if we are… 1.…drawing one card from a standard deck? 2.…rolling a single die? 3.…pulling a marble out of a bag of 25 different marbles? 4.…flipping a quarter? 5.…throwing a dart at a board with four equal- sized sections (assuming the dart hits the board)

10. Example 1 What is the probability of drawing a king from a standard deck of cards? How many events are possible? How many events would satisfy what we want to happen?

11. Example 2 What is the probability of rolling one die and landing on an even number? How many events are possible? How many events would satisfy what we want to happen?

12. Example 3 Mr. Valdez has a bag with 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue, and 8 yellow fruit snacks. What is the probability of picking a blue fruit snack? How many events are possible? How many events would satisfy what we want to happen?

13. Partner Activity! Start the two-sided half-sheet Work with the person next to you

14. Critical Question If you flip a coin 100 times, could it land on heads every time? – Write your answer as a journal entry. Explain your reasoning! – Tweet about it later #MathSwagg. If it does land on heads 100 straight times, what is the probability of landing on tails the next time?

15. How Can I Apply Probability in My Everyday Life? You may not always plug into equations and apply formulas, but you think about probability every day! – It’s a necessary life skill – Having an understanding of probability will protect you from many potential tricks!

16. Everything Isn’t Always as it Seems Chances of 2 people having the same birthday – I bet it happens in here! Chances of winning a 7 number (0-9) lottery We’re really looking at all possible numbers from 0000000-9999999 (10,000,000) What is probability of winning with… 1 ticket? 100 tickets? 100,000 tickets ?

17. Example 4 You decide to ask the prettiest girl/cutest guy in school out on a date. You consider the possible outcomes of this action: 1.They say “yes” right away. 2.They say “not in a million years.” 3.They slap you at the very thought. 4.They tell you that it’s a “yes” if you are getting an A in math. 5.They tell you that you must be at least 15. 6.They say you must be in a sport/activity at OHS. 7.They tell you that you must have dark hair. What is the probability of you getting the date?

18. Example 5 You are crossing a street at 10:30pm on a Friday night. The stop light says “No Crossing.” Here are the potential outcomes: 1.You cross safely and nobody sees. 2.A cop appears out of nowhere and writes you a ticket. 3.A car flies by and hits you. 4.You trip from trying to cross too fast and break your ankle. 5.The cool kid in school sees you doing it and you earn swagg points for being a rebel. 6.You cross and get caught, but the cop only gives you a warning and drives you home. What is the probability of crossing with no trouble?

19. Today’s Big Question! Mr. Valdez is throwing his dart at a target with 10 equal-sized sections. He throws the dart twice. Assuming he never misses the board, how many possible outcomes are there??? – If the sections are lettered A-J, what is the probability that Mr. Valdez hits Section D? – Work with a small group to determine your answer!

20. So…Why Learn This Stuff? Combats the Las Vegas effect Helps us analyze risk Shows us a way that fractions and percentages are applied for a purpose Forces us to think critically about several perspectives

21. Homework! Finish the worksheet you started earlier!