1. How Breakthroughs in Information Systems Can Impact Local Decisions Bruce Babcock Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University

2. The Problem In many areas, agriculture is the main source of water pollution. But pollution contribution may vary dramatically across farms. Large variations in pollution quantity lead to large variations in the cost of preventing pollution. Large variations give farmers “plausible deniability” of responsibility for pollution.

3. How to Reduce Uncertainty about Cause and Effect? Must want to know Must have resources to collect data and construct models Must have unbiased scientists Must have time

4. Procedure to Reduce Uncertainty Must have baseline data about agricultural practices being used climate stream flows topography other nonpoint and point sources of pollution in-stream data about water quality Must have models of crop growth and nutrient utilization movement of nutrients off of farm fields towards streams movement and degradation of nutrients in streams

7. UNBRW Baseline Manure Application Rates (kg/ha) for Coastal/W. Wheat RateSolid ManureLiquid Manure Agronomic N515 Baseline N1,288805 Agronomic P79 Baseline P560400

10. Upper North Bosque River Watershed Upper North Bosque River Watershed Sampling sites Producer locations Subbasins

12. FEM – economic costs and returns for representative farms manure application. fields other land use Policy scenarios APEX (field scale) SWAT (watershed/ river basin) Comparison of economic and environmental indicators CEEOT-LP Environmental component

13. 1 2 3 4 Input daily APEX edge-of-field flows, and sediment and nutrient loadings, at SWAT subbasin outlet APEX manure application fields APEX-SWAT Linkage

14. Average Monthly Flow (m 3 /s) at UNBRW Outlet

15. Average Monthly Soluble Phosphorous (kg) at UNBRW Outlet

16. Outcomes Dairies were shown to be major contributors to water quality problems The only feasible options were to haul manure out of the watershed or to expand acreage of applications fields Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission adopted a new TMDL that is 50% below current phosphorus levels. Everybody now agrees that there is a tradeoff between water quality and dairy profits.

17. Upper Maquoketa River Watershed Upper Maquoketa River Watershed

18. Upper Maquoketa River Watershed Inventory of Livestock Operations Farm typeTotal farmsRep. herd size Tie-stall dairies3260 Freestall dairies6135 Small hog farms131,500 Confined hogs1110,100 Feeder cattle4110 Beef pasture1235 Calf & heifer418 Mixed farms7four species a a 45 dairy, 20 beef cows, 870 hogs, & 5 feeder cattle

19. The Problem Local watershed council felt that conservation funds not being targeted enough Water quality was not improving. Focus was on controlling erosion First-come first-serve for cost shares Existing conservation funds could be more efficiently used by more targeting.

20. Are Cost Variations Important? Suppose you have 10 farmers that are polluting a stream. A filter strip costing each farmer $1000 is the preferred method for eliminating pollution.

24. What If There Were No Cost Variations? Suppose each farm polluted 5.5 units.

26. Are Cost Variations Important? Yes, but only if the cost savings can be captured. How can we identify when there are potentially big savings from adopting a flexible control policy? How can we implement a flexible control policy?

27. Computer Experiments Calibrate crop growth and water flow models Simulate alternative control scenarios flexible vs inflexible targeted vs uniform Get a rough idea of the order of magnitude of benefits that can be obtained from alternative actions

28. Results from Maquoketa Study Targeting cost shares to induce adoption of no-till had a large payoff in reducing P loads. Inducing farmers to test for soil P levels before “replacement” applications increased profit and water quality P based manure application rates

30. Upper Mississippi Analysis Cannot obtain a complete inventory of operations. Must use more aggregate estimates Use National Resources Inventory data Use National Agricultural Statistics Service data for county-level crop and livestock production Use USDA Cropping Practices Survey data for cost estimates Cannot calibrate models as well. Must use guidance from individual watershed studies.

33. NRI Estimate of Percent Tiled Land

36. What Do We Hope to Learn? What are the most efficient ways of reducing nitrogen loads in the Upper Mississippi River? How much will it cost to reduce nitrogen loads? What impacts (positive and negative) will nitrogen targeting have on other pollutants? If local water quality efforts target phosphorus, what will be the consequences on nitrogen?