1. THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

2. US ELECTIONS The US electoral system is very much like a foot race between the candidates.

3. US ELECTIONS Candidates need: – Money – Publicity – Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert – Staff and workers – A strategy or theme – Cater to party hard core here since they will be the voters in primaries – A LOT OF HELP FROM OUTSIDE GROUPS – ISSUE ADS

4. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS There are 2 steps in the process of getting elected to Congress. 1.) Getting the Nomination of your Party 2.) Winning the General Election

5. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS 1. Getting the Nomination Each political party uses a primary or a caucus to select their candidates Primary = an election in which voters registered in a political party choose the party’s nominee (Open or Closed) Caucus = Closed meeting of party leaders at the state and local level to select candidates

6. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS How is the winner chosen? We use an electoral system called Single Member District First Past the Post Elections. The Parties run a candidate in each district and the winner is the one with a plurality of votes

7. GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS 2. What are the differences between our bicameral legislatures? Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 7 House of RepresentativesSenate 1.) 435 members 2.) Based on Population 3.) 2 year Term 4.) Entire House up for re-election every 2 years 5.) Members elected from single member districts 6.) Very Constituent connected 1.) 100 members 2.) Equality – 2 per state 3.) 6 year term 4.) Staggered elections with 1/3 up every 2 years 5.) Members elected state wide 6.) More nationally focused

8. GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS 7. So what in the name of all that is holy does the “Incumbency Advantage” mean? What is an incumbent? What is the advantage? Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 8

9. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 9 Figure 13.2: Percentage of Incumbents Reelected to Congress Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics, 1999-2000 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2000), table 1-18; 2004 updated by Marc Siegal.

10. 13 | 10 Incumbents Reelected to Congress Open Secrets – Current Numbers http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpictu re/reelect.php

11. INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE A.) What is the point of the graph? The Incumbency Advantage – statistical advantage incumbents have in re-election The great likelihood that a current office holder will be re-elected to office because of the advantages of the incumbent Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 11

12. INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE D.) Identify and explain factors that contribute to the Incumbency Advantage. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 12 Name Recognition Franking Pork Barrel Legislation Constituent Services Partisan Redistricting - Gerrymandering Campaign Experience Sophomore Surge Easier to fund raise – Campaign finance rules benefit incumbent Access to media Staff Assistance Access to Gov’t research Washington Experience

13. INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE B.) Analyze positive and negative effect that the Incumbency Advantage has on American Politics. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 13 PositiveNegative Stability and Continuity More democratic – voter choice Incremental change and not radical More experienced political leaders Better working relationship with Interests Lack of responsiveness / Accountability Fewer Women in Congress Fewer Minorities Too policy specialized Discourages challengers

14. THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 14 Type of CandidateTotal $ RaisedNumber of Candidates Average $ Raised Incumbent $635,589,757420$1,513,308 Challenger $295,852,1721,115$265,338

15. THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE US SENATE Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 15 Type of CandidateTotal $ RaisedNumber of Candidates Average $ Raised Incumbent $337,324,71230$11,244,157 Challenger $147,338,169153$962,994

16. PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING In order to understand this issue, you need to Play A Game! http://www.redistrictinggame.org/ Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 16

17. GERRYMANDERING This issue is one of the most egregious examples of conflict of interest in politics today. The Fox is in Charge of the Hen House! Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 17

18. GERRYMANDERING Started with Elbridge Gerry Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 18

19. PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 19

20. PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 20

21. PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 21

22. PARTISAN CONTROL OF REDISTRICTING Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 22

23. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Voters directly choose the winner of each Congressional seat. However, Presidential Elections are more complicated. Voters indirectly choose the President. The final choice on who becomes the next US President is made by the Electoral College.

24. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 3 steps to winning the White House 1.) Getting the Nomination – The Primaries and Caucus Stage 2.) Campaigning at the Convention 3.) Winning the General Election in November

25. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Winning the Election – What do candidates need: – Money – Publicity - TV Time – Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert – Staff and workers – A strategy or theme – Come back to the middle now to attract the voters in the middle – More EC votes than other candidate!

26. US ELECTIONS CANDIDATE$ RAISED# OF VOTESAVERAGE $ PER VOTE Barack Obama (D) $532,946,51169,498,215$7.39 John McCain (R) $379,006,48559,948,240$5.78 Ralph Nader (I) $4,496,180738,720$5.67 Bob Barr (L) $1,383,681523,713$2.57 2012 Presidential Election Totals http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign- finance

27. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 1.) Getting the Nomination – The Primaries and Caucus Stage Cater to the Party Hardliners to win this stage since voter turnout is so low. Watch out for Front Loading What is the big deal here?

28. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

29. 2.) Campaigning at the Convention Each state sends a set number of delegates to the convention based on the size of the sate’s population and success in past elections. Candidate needs to select a VP running mate – “balance the ticket”. Candidates need a majority of the delegates at the national party convention.

30. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2.) Campaigning at the Convention Party platform is written at the convention Non-binding statement of party’s stance on the issues Selecting a running mate – Balance the Ticket

31. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 3.) Winning the General Election in November Now candidates have to come back to the middle and be more moderate in order to attract the independent voters Need money / strategy / publicity and TV time / success at the debates / support from groups to run ads on TV

32. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS The Media and TV Ads are key to success. Daisy Commercial - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL307 2BD7925CE01CA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL307 2BD7925CE01CA 1988 – George Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4 1988 Michael Dukakis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL30 72BD7925CE01CA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL30 72BD7925CE01CA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

33. ELECTORAL COLLEGE

34. In order to win the General Election and become the next US President, a candidate needs a majority of the votes cast by the Electoral College

35. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 1. What is the EC? The group of people from each state that selects the next US President 2. Each state gets a number of electors based on its population – # OF EC VOTES PER STATE = # OF SENATORS + # OF REPRESETNATIVES IN THE US HOUSE – LOOK AT THE BACK WALL

36. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 3. Key is the Census which counts population of each state every 10 years. 4. How many total EC votes? 538 5. How many EC votes needed to win? 270 – Majority

37. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 6. How are the votes allocated (given out) to the candidates? 48 states use a winner-take-all system. The candidate with the most votes (PLURALITY) gets ALL of the EC Votes. Maine and Nebraska break it down by Congressional District (Win a district and get 1 EC Vote) and the overall winner of the state gets the 2 EC votes for the Senate seats

38. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 7. Who selects the Electors? Each Political party has a list of electors. If that Party’s candidate wins the state, then that group of electors gets to vote in EC. The Electors are SUPPOSED to vote for the candidate that wins their state but NOT absolutely required to do so. We do get the occasional “FAITHLESS ELECTOR”

39. ELECTORAL COLLEGE Reality of voting in a Presidential Election – You are voting for an elector who will then make the vote for President

40. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 8. Why do we use this system? Give people the power to choose the US President Federalism – Give states some power over the selection of the President Sneaky Founding Fathers – They wanted it to be a system where the US House of Reps would always have the final say!

41. ELECTORAL COLLEGE The Framers predicted that each state would select and vote for their favorite son and then no candidate would ever get a majority 9. What happens if no one wins a majority of the EC votes? The House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP. But the Framers did not see the rise of political parties

42. ELECTORAL COLLEGE 10. So what is the schedule? General Election is on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November (11/6/2012) Electoral College members meet in state capitals in mid-December to cast their votes Then votes are opened in early January before the first session of the new Congress. This is when the results are certified.

43. ELECTORAL COLLEGE

46. Go to 270 to win to see the results of the 2012 Presidential Election http://www.270towin.com/ What would a 2016 campaign between Hillary and Christie look like http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_sh ow_polling.php?mapid=bDyy http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_sh ow_polling.php?mapid=bDyy