1. Assessing Damage and Needs after Disasters: the Experience of the Gujarat Earthquake Margaret Arnold Reconstruction Needs Analysis: Planning and Implementation ADPC - Bangkok August 13-15, 2002

3. The January 26 earthquake  8:46 am local time, officially 6.9 (IMD) on the Richter scale (estimates vary, up to 7.7 [U.S. Geological Survey])  Approximately 14,000 killed, 200,000 injured.  1.2 million homes damaged or destroyed.  21 out of 25 districts affected  In Kutch district, 70% of all buildings were destroyed and most of the deaths and injuries occurred there.  Severe sectoral damage and destruction: – 2 hospitals and 1200 clinics – over 11,600 schools, institutes and universities – 240 earthen dams – over 3,000 small-to-medium scale enterprises and thousands of cottage industries – major damages to rural and urban water supply systems, power, telecommunications and municipal infrastructure – services, industry and agriculture sectors also affected

4. Map of fatalities

5. Assessment mission  Began two weeks following the date of the earthquake  Joint mission with Asian Development Bank – also USAID and the Netherlands participated  Team of more than 25 people – Experts from major sectors – Procurement, financial management, legal – DMF team members  On the spot training provided by DMF team members to sector specialists on how to assess damages

6. A destroyed village in Kutch

7. Ahmedabad: The highrise building in front of this one collapsed completely. A swimming pool on the top floor is said to have contributed to the failure. While Gujarat has good building codes, implementation has been very weak.

8. Ahmedabad High rise buildings collapsed. Many people blamed corruption and contractors who cut corners.

9. In Ahmedabad, private companies set up shelters, where they provided relief to 900 people. Children receive counseling to deal with their experiences.

10. This school in Bhuj collapsed completely. They, along with many other schools, reopened in a tent shortly after the disaster.

11. The old, walled city of Bhuj was nearly completely destroyed.

12. Even many of the buildings that have been left standing have serious damage, and will have do be demolished.

13. The old city of Bhuj. Narrow streets made rubble removal very difficult to remove.

15. Assessment of Damages  Asset losses (direct damages): the value of stocks of buildings, equipment, inventory, and other property losses  Output losses (indirect damages): the value of the flows of goods and services lost as a result of the asset losses and other disruption caused by the earthquake  Fiscal costs (secondary effects): the net additions to the fiscal deficit as a result of lost revenue and additional expenditures due to the earthquake

16. Assessment of Damages  Asset losses: $2.1 billion – private: $1.6 billion – public: $0.5 billion  Output losses: $0.5 to 0.7 billion  Fiscal impact: $2.2 billion

17. Preliminary damage estimate and reconstruction costs (US$M)

18. Bank Recovery Assistance Strategy: Three Phases  Phase I: Immediate priorities – temporary shelter – restoration of public services – restoration of livelihoods  Funded by reallocation of 12 credits and one loan - $303 million  Key principles – provide wage employment to revive economy – ownership and involvement of the affected people – affordability, private sector involvement and equity – decentralization, community-driven recovery – communication and transparency  Sectors: Housing, Health, Education, Dam safety and irrigation, Roads and bridges, Public buildings, Community participation support, Disaster management institutional capacity support  Asian Development Bank agreed to cover housing, water supply and power

19. Three phases of Bank assistance  Phase II: Emergency Recovery Loan - $400.2 m – Approved May 2, 2002 – Components: ±Continued housing reconstruction ($143.6 m) ±Public infrastructure reconstruction ($236.9 m) ±Community participation ($12.5 m) ±Disaster management ($51.1 m) ±Project management ($6 m)  Phase III: stand alone prevention and mitigation project – Build on phase II for stronger disaster management capacity – Include component on insurance instruments

20. Gujarat Multi-Hazard Disaster History  Cyclones: 1850, 1881, 1893, 1896, 1897, 1903, 1917, 1920, 1933, 1947, 1948, 1961, 1964, 1975, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1990, 1993, 1996, 1998, 1999  Drought/Heat Waves: 1987, 1998, 1999, 2000  Floods: 1980, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998  Earthquakes: 1819, 1845, 1847, 1848, 1864, 1903, 1938, 1956, 2001 – Gujarat is located in the Himalayan collision zone, where the Indo-Australian tectonic plate slides under the Eurasian plate, 1-2 cm / year – Kutch is classified as Zone V, highest risk zone

21. Lessons from Assessment Exercise  Joint mission was useful – allows for better coordination, avoids duplication  Some sectors more difficult to assess than others – e.g., environment, social sectors  While disaster may not cause huge economic losses, human and social costs can be extremely high – impact on poor  In terms of informing Bank response – need to be realistic about what can be achieved in immediate term  Damage and needs assessments can be adjusted in the medium term as more information becomes available  Assessment mission can be very high profile – need for effective communication and information sharing

22. Environmental impacts  Debris and rubble disposal: 10-20 million metric tons  Potential impacts on aquifers and groundwater, and longer term disturbance to ecosystem  Damage to industrial facilities: No catastrophic collapses, but important to address potential impacts: – release of polluting or hazardous substances – risk of industrial accidents caused by damaged equipment and machinery  Indirect impacts: – poorer sanitation and waste management practices – increases in industrial pollution – changes in land use

23. Social Impacts  14,000 dead, 200,000 injured -- most in Kutch district  Disability, trauma, homelessness, loss of productivity and earnings  The earthquake has affected rich and poor alike, but poor and vulnerable groups have less resources to manage the reconstruction. Long term consequences of deaths and disability particularly affect widows, orphans, the elderly.  Urgent needs included shelter (before onset of monsoon season); as well as the reestablishment of livelihoods for the poor, in particular handicraft artisans, salt farmers, and cattle owners.

24. Why communities should be actively involved in planning and implementation of the reconstruction effort:  Participation reduces trauma  Solutions are more culturally and socially acceptable  People are suspicious of outside agencies  Increased transparency and accountability  Employment opportunities  Access to and utilization of services  Equity

25. The need for communication and information dissemination  Information dissemination  Community consultation and participation  Building local technical capacity  Coordination among partners, including addressing external stakeholders and audiences  Transparency  Independent monitoring and grievance redress