1. Model Intercomparisons and Validation: Terrestrial Carbon, an Arctic Emphasis Andrew Slater

3. Carbon Model Intercomparisons EDMI – offline C4MIP – C-Model and parent Atmosphere C-LAMP – C-Model and CAM (CCSM Atmo) IPCC AR5 – The next big thing …..

4. Ecosystem Dynamics Model Intercomp.

5. C4MIP – Carbon Cycle & Climate Change 11 Models (International effort) o Coupled Atmo-Ocean-Land + Carbon GCMs o Numerous carbon pools in models o Generally fixed Q10 values (global) o No nitrogen cycle included Simulations with & without interactive CO 2 Later found that Nitrogen limitation would decrease carbon uptake

6. C4MIP - Results No consensus on total NPP response to Climate Change o ↑T + ↑CO 2 → ? o Will the land be a sink or source? Carbon uptake ability decreases o ↑T → ↓CO 2 uptake

7. Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project Couple 3 models to the CCSM atmosphere  CLM3-CASA’  CLM3-CN  LSX-IBIS Multi-criteria objective function Aids model development & selection

8. Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project

9. C-LAMP Experiments 1000yr Spin-up + 200yr Control Experiment 1: Offline (Reanalysis driven)  1.1 Spin up run  1.2 Control run (1798–2004)  1.3 Climate varying run (1948–2004)  1.4 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run (1798–2004)  1.5 Climate, CO2, N deposition varying run with land use change (1798–2004) Experiment 2: Coupled to CAM3  2.1 Spin up run  2.2 Control run (1800–2004)  2.3 Climate varying run (1800–2004)  2.4 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run (1800–2004)  2.5 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run with land use change (1800–2004)

10. IPCC AR5 and Carbon Concentration driven (a la AR4) o No carbon feedback Emissions driven o Full carbon coupling o Radiation code does not see CO 2 Dynamic Vegetation coupling Land Use & Land Cover Change

11. Carbon Data – What, Where & When Storage  Soil Carbon  Biomass Fixing Flux Data:  FluxNet  Individual Investigators  CO 2 & CH 4

12. Soil Carbon – Importance of Arctic Batjes, 1996

13. Tarnocai et al 2009, GBC Soil or deposit typeC stocks Soils 0–300 cm1024 Yedoma sediments 407 Deltaic deposits 241 Total 1672 Permafrost zones 0-30 cm0-100 cm Continuous110.38298.75 Discontinuous25.567.44 Sporadic26.3663.13 Isolated Patches29.0567.10 Total191.29496.42 New estimates of carbon in frozen soils (NH) Permafrost Organic Carbon Content

14. Carbon (& other) Data Issues: All the usual problems  Metadata  Continuity & Completeness  Quality Control  Different formats  Numerous data centers  Access Pro’s & Con’s of different data sets Errors: Representativeness & Instrumental

15. FluxNET

16. IPY AON Projects: Full annual cycle?

17. AON Towers: A tough environment! Cherskii Imnaviat Photos: EEuskirchen@UAF

18. Arctic Specific Matters Highest Q10 values are in the Arctic Rapid change Shrub encroachment already seen Huge carbon stocks 1950 2002

19. Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009 (Avgs.) 2006 2005 2007 2008 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Current Carbon Emissions 1990 1995 2000 20052010

20. THANKS

21. Community Land Model subgrid tiling structure Gridcell GlacierWetlandLake Landunit Columns PFTs UrbanVegetated Soil Type 1 Resolution For IPCC AR5 2 o and 0.5 o working towards 0.1 o

22. Gridcell GlacierWetlandLake Landunit Columns PFTs UrbanVegetated Soil Type 1 Vegetation change (prescribed or prognostic)

23. Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) One Grid Cell In Canada Bonan et al. (2003) Global Change Biology 9:1543-1566 Bonan & Levis, unpublished Mean Annual Temperature (2  CO 2 ) Additional Temperature Change With Vegetation

24. decomposition litterfall & mortality Atm CO 2 Plant Litter / CWD Soil Organic Matter Carbon cycle respiration Soil Mineral N N deposition N fixation denitrification N leaching Nitrogen cycle Internal (fast) External (slow) mineralization assimilation photosynthesis Carbon and Nitrogen cycling (CLM-CN) Based on Biome-BGC, Thornton et al., 2009 3 C and 3 N litter pools 3 C and 3 N soil pools