1. Not Just The Facts: Decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010) Motivation and MethodologyData and ResultsInterpretation and Impact A refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a: Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or, Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture, or death Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventually become a Canadian citizen. A negative decision (“claim rejected”) results in deportation. There is little avenue for appeal: in 2010, only 14% of cases that applied for a Federal Appeal were granted leave to appeal their case. There is wide variation in grant rates across the board. Research Questions 1.What are the sources of variation in asylum grant rates? 2.Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics? Description/Examples # of Board Members % Total Sample Male Board member is male 12648 Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 9838 Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 2510 Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services 6726 Previous Work: Law Enforcement i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer 166 Other Adjudication Experience i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 3513 Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada 208 Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment. 5220 Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada 52 Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada 62 Board Member Data Data on board members was taken from press releases issued by the government at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238 members. Refugee Claims Data Data on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian Counsel for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171 countries adjudicated from 2006-2010. Methodology 1.A probit regression of decision on fixed effects for country of origin, board member and year. 2. A probit regression: y i = β 0 + (membercharacteristics) i γ + β 1 country i + β 2 year i + β 3 office i + ε i Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected. Probit CoefficientsProbit Discrete Changes Male -0.048*** (0.013) -0.115*** (0.016) -0.108*** (0.016) -0.019*** (0.005) -0.045*** (0.006) -0.043*** (0.006) Law Degree 0.041*** (0.014) 0.048*** (0.017) 0.039** (0.017) 0.016*** (0.005) 0.019*** (0.007) 0.016** (0.007) Previous work: IRB/CIC -0.069*** (0.024) -0.068*** (0.024) -0.027*** (0.009) -0.027*** (0.009) immigrants/ refugees/human rights 0.0151 (0.019) 0.0133 (0.019) 0.006 (0.008) 0.005 (0.008) Law enforcement -0.073** (0.032) -0.080** (0.032) -0.029** (0.013) -0.032** (0.013) Other adjudication experience -0.113*** (0.023) -0.110*** (0.023) -0.044*** (0.009) -0.043*** (0.009) Foreign education 0.0515** (0.025) 0.0515** (0.025) 0.020** (0.010) 0.020** (0.010) Reappointment 0.149*** (0.017) 0.146*** (0.017) 0.059*** (0.007) 0.058*** (0.007) Liberal Candidate -0.808*** (0.135) -0.275*** (0.035) Conservative Candidate 0.0322 (0.0388) 0.013 (0.0154) Constant 0.903*** (0.192) 0.733*** (0.208) 0.763*** (0.207) Observations48,57037,121 48,57037,121 Pseudo R-squared.1749.1910.1918 The country a claimant comes from, the year in which a claim is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted. This large, unexplained component is not necessarily a negative reflection on the board. Claims should be heard on a case-by-case basis. Effect of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance Dependent variable is probability of claim acceptance (1=asylum granted, 0=asylum not granted). Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Fixed effects are included for country of origin, year and office. Board Member Characteristics do have an effect on the probability that a claim is accepted or denied. Refugee claims are being determined partially as a function of factors completely external to the claim. Policy Prescriptions Preventative: change the selection or training processes so board members can make more impartial asylum determinations. Compensatory: recognize that the subjective element can never fully be purged from decision making, and introduce an appeals process for refugee claims. Innessa Colaiacovo, Brown University Department of Economics (Class of 2012) Effects of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance

2. Not just the facts: decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010) Motivation and MethodologyData and Results Interpretation and Impact A refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a: Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or, Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture or death Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventual lybecome a Canadian citizen. A negative decision results in deportation. There is little avenue for appeal: only 14% of cases that apply for a Federal Appeal are granted leave to appeal their case. There is wide variation grant rates across the board. Research Questions 1.What are the sources of variation in asylum grant rates? 2.Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics? Description/Examples # of Board Members % Total Sample Male Board member is male 12648 Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 9838 Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 2510 Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services 6726 Previous Work: Law Enforcement i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer 166 Other Adjudication Experience i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 3513 Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada 208 Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment. 5220 Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada 52 Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada 62 Board Member Data Data on board members was taken from press releases issued by the government at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238 members. Refugee Claims Data Data on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian Counsel for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171 countries adjudicated from 2006-2010. Methodology 1.A probit regression of decision on fixed effects for country of origin, board member and year. 2. A probit regression: y i = β 0 + (membercharacteristics) i γ + β 1 country i + β 2 year i + β 3 office i + ε i Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected. Probit CoefficientsProbit Discrete Changes Male -0.048*** (0.013) -0.115*** (0.016) -0.108*** (0.016) -0.019*** (0.005) -0.045*** (0.006) -0.043*** (0.006) Law Degree 0.041*** (0.014) 0.048*** (0.017) 0.039** (0.017) 0.016*** (0.005) 0.019*** (0.007) 0.016** (0.007) Previous work: IRB/CIC -0.069*** (0.024) -0.068*** (0.024) -0.027*** (0.009) -0.027*** (0.009) immigrants/ refugees/human rights 0.0151 (0.019) 0.0133 (0.019) 0.006 (0.008) 0.005 (0.008) Law enforcement -0.073** (0.032) -0.080** (0.032) -0.029** (0.013) -0.032** (0.013) Other adjudication experience -0.113*** (0.023) -0.110*** (0.023) -0.044*** (0.009) -0.043*** (0.009) Foreign education 0.0515** (0.025) 0.0515** (0.025) 0.020** (0.010) 0.020** (0.010) Reappointment 0.149*** (0.017) 0.146*** (0.017) 0.059*** (0.007) 0.058*** (0.007) Liberal Candidate -0.808*** (0.135) -0.275*** (0.035) Conservative Candidate 0.0322 (0.0388) 0.013 (0.0154) Constant 0.903*** (0.192) 0.733*** (0.208) 0.763*** (0.207) Observations48,57037,121 48,57037,121 Pseudo R- squared.1749.1910.1918 The country a claim comes from, the year in which it is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted. This large, unexplained component is not necessarily negative Dependent variable is probability of claim acceptance (1=asylum granted, 0=asylum not granted). Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Fixed effects are included for country of origin, year and office. Effect of Board Member Characteristics on Probability of Claim Acceptance

3. Not just the facts: decisions of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (2006-2010) Motivation and MethodologyData and Results Interpretation and Impact A refugee claimant applies for asylum (“refugee status”) in Canada on the grounds that he or she is either a: Convention Refugee: a person with a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; or, Person in Need of Protection: a person whose removal to his or her country of origin would result in a substantial danger of cruel or unusual treatment or punishment, torture or death Claims are decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). One board member hears each individual claim. A positive decision (“claim accepted”) allows the claimant to remain in Canada and eventual lybecome a Canadian citizen. A negative decision results in deportation. There is little avenue for appeal: only 14% of cases that apply for a Federal Appeal are granted leave to appeal their case. There is wide variation in the grant rates of individual board members Research Question 1.Is the probability of a claim being accepted correlated with the board member’s observable characteristics? Description/Examples # of Board Members % Total Sample Male Board member is male 12648 Law Degree LLB, JD, Certificate of Laws 9838 Previous Work: IRB/CIC i.e. Refugee Protection Officer 2510 Previous Work: Refugees, Immigrants, Human Rights i.e. UNHCR, refugee or immigration law, Jewish immigrant aid services 6726 Previous Work: Law Enforcement i.e. Police superintendent, parole officer 166 Other Adjudication Experience i.e. Rent Tribunal, Parole Board 3513 Foreign Educated Educated outside of the U.S. or Canada 208 Reappointment Serving this term by virtue of a reappointment. 5220 Liberal Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Liberal Party of Canada 52 Conservative Candidate Ran for/held office as a member of the Conservative Party of Canada 62 Board Member Data Data on board members was taken from press releases issued by the government at the time of the member’s appointment. There are 261 board members in the sample: at least partial information was available for 238 of them. Refugee Claims Data Data on refugee claims was retrieved from the website of the Canadian Counsel for Refugees (http://www.ccrweb.ca). The sample analyzed included 51,515 refugee claims from 171 countries adjudicated from 2006-2010. Methodology 1. A probit regression: y i = β 0 + (membercharacteristics) i γ + β 1 country i + β 2 year i + β 3 office i + ε i Where y=1 if a claim is accepted and 0 is a claim is rejected. Probit CoefficientsProbit Discrete Changes Male -0.048*** (0.013) -0.115*** (0.016) -0.108*** (0.016) -0.019*** (0.005) -0.045*** (0.006) -0.043*** (0.006) Law Degree 0.041*** (0.014) 0.048*** (0.017) 0.039** (0.017) 0.016*** (0.005) 0.019*** (0.007) 0.016** (0.007) Previous work: IRB/CIC -0.069*** (0.024) -0.068*** (0.024) -0.027*** (0.009) -0.027*** (0.009) Previous work: immigrants/ refugees/human rights 0.0151 (0.019) 0.0133 (0.019) 0.006 (0.008) 0.005 (0.008) Previous work: law enforcement -0.073** (0.032) -0.080** (0.032) -0.029** (0.013) -0.032** (0.013) Other adjudication experience -0.113*** (0.023) -0.110*** (0.023) -0.044*** (0.009) -0.043*** (0.009) Foreign education 0.0515** (0.025) 0.0515** (0.025) 0.020** (0.010) 0.020** (0.010) Reappointment 0.149*** (0.017) 0.146*** (0.017) 0.059*** (0.007) 0.058*** (0.007) Liberal Candidate -0.808*** (0.135) -0.275*** (0.035) Conservative Candidate 0.0322 (0.0388) 0.013 (0.0154) Constant 0.903*** (0.192) 0.733*** (0.208) 0.763*** (0.207) Observations48,57037,121 48,57037,121 Pseudo R-squared.1749.1910.1918 The country a claim comes from, the year in which it is heard, and the individual board member only account for 26% of the variation in the probability a claim is accepted. This large, unexplained component is not necessarily negative