1. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Overlegcentrum voor Ethiek Universiteit Antwerpen Dept. Comm.Wet Scoring personality Soccer game outcomes as behavioral correlates of cross-cultural personality and value orientation differences. Tim Smits Ben Van Calster Paper presented at the second DCCP meeting, Tilburg, The Netherlands, March 2008

2. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Background  Cross-cultural value orientations and personality differences - Powerful descriptives - Ambiguous predictives  If any real-life significance, then a relation with behavioral measures should show up - Lab-behavior, or otherwise controlled behavioral measures - Real-life cultural data or arifacts

3. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Focal behavior Soccer - Rationale: Soccer is a cultural behavior, though probably the most globalized of its kind Hence, if values/personality are predictive in this area, then effects yield strong evidence - Different levels considered National ranking Game outcome characteristics: mean number of goals per game, probability of scoreless draw - Caveat: effects should be more than mere reflections of economic difference

4. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Research questions Hyotheses  Soccer excellence and gameplay depend on qualities that differ inter-culturally. The strategic part might differ consistently with psychological variables.  Excellence: - Reflected in ranking - Values > Personality?  Gameplay: - Reflected in goals per game and scoreless draws - Personality ~ Values?

5. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Data  Secondary data for 34 countries  Economics: HDI / GDP; Gini  Value dimensions - Schwartz: harmony, embedded, hierarchy, mastery, affective autonomy, intellectual autonomy, egaliatarianism - Hofstede: power distance, individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance  Personality - Big Five: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness e.g., Schwartz (2006), Comparative Sociology, 5, 137-182Schmitt et al. (2007), JCCP, 38, 173-212

6. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Data (2)‏  Soccer data: - Points on FIFA ranking per country for seasons 2003 to 2005 (more points = better; based on performance of the national team)‏ - National top competitions for same seasons: Average goals per game for all teams in the season Proportion of scoreless draws within competition (Note: globalization most strongly in these data due to international players, coaches, investments etc.) Van Calster, Smits & Van Huffel (2008), Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 4(1), #4

7. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Analysis strategy Per type of response:  Raw correlation matrix: - Index of the (non)-triviality of research question - Selection of appropriate variables for further analysis (cut-off ~.20)‏  Stepwise regression model on limited set of variables: - Most predictive variables With forced inclusion of economic variables

8. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Results: Fifa ranking  Raw Correlations: - Economy (1/2) : HDI - Schwartz (5/7) : harmony, embedded, hierarchy, intellectual autonomy, egalitarianism - Hofstede (2/4) : individualism, uncertainty avoidance - Big Five (0/5)‏  Stepwise regression : -.39 < R² <.49 - Uncertainty avoidance (p <.0001)‏ - Individualism (p ~.001)‏

9. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Results: Goals per game  Raw Correlations (unrelated to FIFA ranking) : - Economy (2/2) : HDI, Gini - Schwartz (0/7) : - Hofstede (1/4) : uncertainty avoidance - Big Five (2/5): extraversion, conscientiousness  Stepwise regression : - Uncertainty avoidance spurious, hence deleted -.39 < R² <.49 - HDI & Gini (p ~.01)‏ - Extraversion & Conscientiousness (p ~.01)‏

10. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Results: Scoreless draws  Raw Correlations (related to FIFA ranking) : - Economy (1/2) : Gini - Schwartz (1/7) : hierarchy - Hofstede (1/4) : uncertainty avoidance - Big Five (1/5): conscientiousness  Stepwise regression : - R² ~.19 - Gini (p ~.08)‏ - Uncertainty avoidance (.005 < p <.06)‏ - 2005: Conscientiousness (p ~.02 ; R² ~.43)‏

11. DCCP2; Smits & Van Calster Discussion  Soccer play is consistently related to inter- cultural differences - Irrespective of economic differences - Even in the most particular and globalized aspect of our data: scoreless draws  Summary of findings - Ranking: Many relations with value orientations, strong predictions - Goals per game: Relations with economy & personality, strong predictions - Scoreless draws: Some relations and mediocre predictions

12. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Overlegcentrum voor Ethiek Universiteit Antwerpen Dept. Comm.Wet Scoring personality Soccer game outcomes as behavioral correlates of cross-cultural personality and value orientation differences. Tim Smits Ben Van Calster Paper presented at the second DCCP meeting, Tilburg, The Netherlands, March 2008