1. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Residential Conservation Resource Assessment Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptions April 21, 2009

2. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 Organization Sector Summary Workbook Sector Summary Workbook –Linked to Three Procost “Roll-Up” Workbooks –Space Conditioning –Lighting, Appliances and Water Heating –Consumer Electronics “Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual measure level workbooks “Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual measure level workbooks –Changes made in “SCInput” tabs in individual measure workbooks will be reflected in “roll-ups” Roll-Up Procost Workbooks Contain Roll-Up Procost Workbooks Contain –Applicable Units –Baseline Market Share –Ramp Rate Assumptions –“Redundant Measure” parsing –Supply Curve by year and “TRC Levelized Cost” bin

3. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 What’s Covered – Space Conditioning Three Building Types Three Building Types –Single Family (up to & including 4-plex) –Multifamily (5-plex & above) –Manufactured/Mobile Homes Four Vintages Four Vintages –Pre-1980 –1980 – 1992 –Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction) –Post-2002

4. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 What’s Covered (cont) Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing with heat recovery ventilation Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing with heat recovery ventilation Duct Sealing/Interior HVAC & Ducts Duct Sealing/Interior HVAC & Ducts Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless Heat Pumps Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless Heat Pumps Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Efficiency Upgrades Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Efficiency Upgrades Room Air Conditioner Efficiency Upgrades Room Air Conditioner Efficiency Upgrades

5. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Analytical Process – Measure Cost-Effectiveness Baseline Characteristics CRC & ETO Reports Current Codes Market Surveys Federal Standards Prototype Simulations Twelve Buildings Five locations Adjusted for “system” efficiency Nine Climate Zone Combinations 3 Heating 3 Cooling PROCOST Market Price Forecast Load Shapes T&D Losses & Value Non-Energy Benefits Unit Level Results “Optimized” Measure Order Cost-Effectiveness Determination

6. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Analytical Process – Interactive Measures Building Thermal Shells Insulated to Cost- Effectiveness Limit Heat Pump Conversions/Upgrades to Cost-Effectiveness Limit w/ Duct Sealing (Existing) and/or Interior HVAC (New) Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use

7. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Analytical Process – “Applicable Units” Measure & Housing Stock Measure & Housing Stock –ResWx = Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2029 –New Shell & HVAC = Built between 2010 – 2029 –Duct Systems Sealing & Space Conditioning Equipment Conversions = All SF & MH units built prior to 2010, existing in 2029 –Interior HVAC and Space Conditioning Systgem Upgrades = All SF and MH stock build from 2010 -2029 –Heating & Cooling Equipment Conversions Replaced “on burn out” –Heating & Cooling Equipment Upgrades Replaced “on burn out” for pre-2010 units and at time of construction for 2010 – 2029 units.

8. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Thermal Shell Measure Cost & Savings Weatherization Cost Data Source Weatherization Cost Data Source –ETO and PSE Program Cost Data –Window Cost – ETO Single family & Multifamily Cost Data (Used MF). New Construction Cost Data Source New Construction Cost Data Source –5 th Plan estimates from 4 th Plan estimates –Except windows and R-10 full slab insulation »Used ETO cost data from ResWx for windows »Used data submitted by Mission Valley Power to RTF Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model estimates (results embedded in workbooks) Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model estimates (results embedded in workbooks)

9. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 Heat Pump and PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Cost Estimates Four Sources: Four Sources: –Existing RTF cost estimate contractor bids –STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors (preliminary returns from 23 contractors –Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box cost” only) –Energy Trust of Oregon program data

10. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Three Ton Heat Pump

11. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump

12. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump

13. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump

14. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump

15. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System Duct Sealing and Interior HVAC/Ducts

16. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System Commissioning

17. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 What’s Covered – Water Heating High Efficiency Tanks High Efficiency Tanks Heat Pump and Solar Water Heaters Heat Pump and Solar Water Heaters 2.0 GPM Showerheads 2.0 GPM Showerheads GFX Wastewater Heat Recovery GFX Wastewater Heat Recovery

18. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 Analytical Process – Interactive Measures Standby Loss Adjusted to Reflect Cost- Effective Efficiency Improvements Heat Pump and Solar Water Heating Cost- Effectiveness Determined Waste Water Heat Recovery Cost- Effectiveness Determined Water Use Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Water Fixture Efficiency Improvements Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use

19. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 19 Retail Cost Assumptions – Electric Water Heaters Source: US Department of Energy Technical Support Document

20. Solar Hot Water System Savings Assumptions System Cost Assumed = $4,500 for 50-60 sq.ft. collector system. Source: Cost ODOE tax credit data, savings from FSEC simulations for RTF

21. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 21 Residential Appliances – What’s Covered Refrigerators Refrigerators Freezers Freezers Clothes Washers Clothes Washers Dryers Dryers Dishwashers Dishwashers Microwaves & Ovens Microwaves & Ovens

22. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 22 Major Inputs Cost Data Sources Cost Data Sources –Oregon State Residential Energy Tax Credit –DOE Appliance Standards (Refrigerators, Ovens and Microwaves) –Online (Dryers and Room AC) Baseline Efficiency Baseline Efficiency –AHAM’s Annual Report on Sales Weighted Average Product Efficiency Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test data and procedures Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test data and procedures

23. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 23 AHAM Baseline – Room AC Energy Star Minimum

24. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 24 AHAM Baseline - Dishwashers Energy Star Minimum

25. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 25 Room AC Use Assumptions

26. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 26 AHAM Baseline – Clothes Washers Energy Star Minimum

27. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 27 Clothes Washer Use Assumptions

28. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 28 AHAM Baseline – Refrigerators and Freezers

29. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 29 Dishwasher Use Assumptions

30. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 30 Refrigerator Use Assumptions

31. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 31 Freezer Use Assumptions

32. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 32 Ramp Rate Assumptions – Lost Opportunity

33. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 33 Ramp Rate Assumptions – Emerging Technology and Consumer Electronics

34. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 34 Ramp Rate Assumptions – Non- Lost Opportunity Resources

35. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 35 Residential Lighting, Appliance and Water Heating Supply Curve

36. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 36 Summary of 6 th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Potential by Major Measure