1. Making a Hard Decision Maneesha Mankad

2. Industrial Engineering at Disney

3. Simple Fun Decisions: Think - Pair- Share 1)Fast Food 2)Friday Movie Night

4. Questions to Consider What alternatives will you choose from? What do you value in your decision making? What measures are appropriate for each criterion? How will you compare the alternatives which you have to choose from? Are all measures comparable across the board? What criteria matters to you more and by how much? How will you make the final decision?

5. What college should I attend? Buying your first home Picking a cell phone plan What should I be when I grow up? How much insurance should I have?

6. Choosing a Cell Phone Plan Refer to Section 1.1.1, Page 4 PART 1 Choose Roles: Surveyor, Recorder, Presenter, Task Master (Write down your role on your paper along with your name) –Surveyor: Goes around and collects data from two other pairs. Leads the discussion for comparing cell phone plans. –Recorder: Records data from surveyor and writes down explanation of why their pair chose the plan they did. –Presenter: Presents data/results to the class for your group with help from group after analyzing all options –Task Master: Keeps group on task by keeping track of time. Opening Activity Complete activities 1 through 4

7. Choosing a Cell Phone Plan Section 1.1.1, Page 4 PART 2 In this activity, you will make a decision about what cell phone plan you would choose if you were considering a new plan. To do so, complete the following steps: 1. Survey two other pairs to obtain data for the different cell phone plans. Record all the data on your paper. 2. Discuss with your partner how you will compare plans. Choose one of the plans based on your data. 3. In 2-3 sentences explain why you chose this plan over the others. What possible issues do you foresee with using these steps to choose a cell phone plan?

8. Learning Objective 1 What is the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)? Why is the MCDM useful? (Section 1.1 – 1.5)

9. Terms CRITERIA Objectives or aspects of the alternatives that you wish to either maximize or minimize Everday definition: A principle or standard by which something may be judged or decided MEASUREA trait that will quantify an aspect of a criterion Everyday definition (noun): A standard unit used to express the size, quantity or degree of something

10. CRITERIA COST CONTRACT FEATURES PHONE FEATURES MEASURES Monthly Service Charge No. of Minutes per Month, Min. Contract Length, Free Unlimited Texting, Included Data Plan Quality of Service

11. Terms CATEGORICAL MEASURE A measure whose scores are classifications (data that are counted). NO INTRINSIC ORDER EXAMPLE :  House Types – Condo, Single family home, Co-op, Bungalow  Eye Color of Freshmen – Blue, Brown, Green, Hazel CAN BE ORDERED OR RANKED EXAMPLE:  Education level (elementary, secondary, college)  Satisfaction level (very dissatisfied, dissatisfied, neutral, satisfied, very satisfied)

12. CONTINUOUS A measure whose scores are MEASURE numeric values that can take on any value in a certain range (data that are measured). EXAMPLE: Height of Seniors at Community High Cost of Spirit Wear Number of Hours students spend doing HW Terms

13. Measure Types MeasureCategorical Data Plan 15 GB 12.5 GB 10 GB 7.5 GB Rollover Data YES NO Quality of Service Excellent Very Good Good Minimum Contract 6 Month 1 Year 2 year

14. Measure Types MeasureContinuous/ Numerical Monthly Charge Any Numerical Value within a reasonable range Minutes per month

15. Raw Data (Collecting data) Plan TrotUST&THorizon Total Monthly Charge ($) 180250220 Overage Fee ($/GB) 501510 Contract Length 2 years1yearNone Data Plan (GB/month) 10157.5 Rollover Data NoYesNo Quality of Service ExcellentVery Good Good

16. Scale Ranges Total Monthly Charge $180 - $250 Overage Fee per GB$10 - $50 Use Proportional Scale to convert to common units.

17. Quality of Service Excellent2 Very good1 Good0 Scale Ranges

18. Roll Over Data Yes1 No 0

19. Contract Length none2 1 year1 2 years0 Scale Ranges

20. Data Plan 7.5 GB0 10 GB0.33 15 GB0 Scale Ranges

21. Rescale Each Measure to a Common Unit Step 1: Assign 1 to the best value in the range. Assign 0 to the worst value in the range. Step 2: For continuous data, assign intermediate scores proportionally Scaled Score = __|Score – Least Preferred Score| | Most Preferred – Least Preferred| Step 3: For categorical data, assign intermediate scores proportionally or based on your own opinion and values

22. Continuous Measure Example: Overage fee Least Preferred Score : 50, Assign Common Unit Value : 0 Most Preferred : 10, Assign Common Unit Value : 1 Common Unit Value for 15 = __|Score – Least Preferred Score| | Most Preferred – Least Preferred| = |15 – 50| |10 – 50| = 35 = 7 or 0.875 or ≈ 0.88 40 8 Rescale Each Measure to a Common Unit

23. Raw Data (Collecting data) Plan TrotUST&THorizon Total Monthly Charge ($) 180250220 Overage Fee ($/GB) 501510 Contract Length 2 years1yearNone Data Plan (GB/month) 10157.5 Rollover Data NoYesNo Quality of Service ExcellentVery Good Good

24. Rescaling Values to Common Units (0-1 range) 1 = best Plan TrotUST&THorizon Total Monthly Charge ($) 100.43 Overage Fee ($/GB) 00.881 Contract Length 00.251 Data Plan (GB/month) 0.3310 Rollover Data 010 Quality of Service 10.50 Total Points* 2.333.632.43 Average Points 0.390.610.41 *The totals do not take into account Isabelle and Angelo’s preferences.

25. Isabella’s ’ s Assigned weights Rank (1 – most important) Assign points Calculate weight

26. Raw Data (Collecting data) Plan TrotUST&THorizon Total Monthly Charge ($) 180250220 Overage Fee ($/GB) 501510 Contract Length 2 years1yearNone Data Plan (GB/month) 10157.5 Rollover Data NoYesNo Quality of Service ExcellentVery Good Good

27. MEASURELeast Preferred Most Preferred Rank Total Monthly Charge250180 1 Overage Fee ($/GB)5010 5 Contract Length2 yearsNone 4 Data Plan7.5 GB15 GB 2 Rollover DataNoYes 6 Quality of ServiceGoodExcellent 3

28. MEASURERANKPOINTSWEIGHT (Points/Total Points) Total Monthly Charge1 (most imp) 1000.29 Overage Fee ($/GB)5200.06 Contract Length4400.12 Data Plan2900.26 Rollover Data6100.03 Quality of Service3800.24 Total points: 340 Weights add to 1.00 (100%)

29. How does this affect decision making This means that 29% of Isabella’s decision should be based on monthly charge. Only 3% of Isabella’s decision should be based on rollover data. Quality of service makes up 24% of Isabella’s decision.

30. CALCULATE THE WEIGHTED SUM Measure Weight Weighted Score = Common Unit Value* Weight TrotUST&THorizon Total Monthly Charge ($) 0.29 1 * 0.29 = 0.290*0.29 = 00.43*0.29 = 0.13 Overage Fee ($/GB) 0.06 0* 0.06 = 00.88 * 0.06 = 0.05 1*0.06 = 0.06 Contract Length0.12 0*0.12 = 00.25*.12 = 0.03 1*0.12 = 0.12 Data Plan (GB/month) 0.26 0.33*0.26 = 0.09 1*0.26 = 0.26 0*0.26 = 0 Rollover Data0.03 0*0.03 = 01*0.03 = 0.03 0*0.03 = 0 Quality of Service 0.24 1*0.24 = 0.240.5*0.26 = 0.13 0*0.26 = 0 Wireless Plan’s Total Score 0.620.500.31

31. EVALUATE YOUR RESULTS ALWAYS look at your top two choices and determine what was the deciding factors before you just go with the highest number.

32. Multi-Criterion Decision- Making Process Determine: Criteria Measures (numerical or categorical) Gather data for each alternative Range of Measures Rescale each measure to a Common Score Weight measures and objectives (personal) Calculate weighted sum Analyze and Interpret Results