Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byMarjory Woods Modified over 8 years ago
1
1 Ageing and Fertility in Scotland by Robert E. Wright Department of Economics, University of Stirling Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn Scottish Economic Policy Network February, 2004
2
2 CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN SCOTLAND 1. Fertility 2. Morality 3. Net Migration
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6 SUMMARY OF CURRENT SITUATION 1. Below replacement level fertility 2. Declining mortality (e.g. increasing life expectancy) 3. Zero net migration (i.e. No. of immigrants ≈ No. of emigrants)
7
7 IF THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION REMAINS UNCHANGED: 1. Population will decline from its current level of about 5 million to about 4.5 million by 2041 2. Population will “age” rapidly, e.g. Increase in the number and percentage of people aged 65+ Decrease in the number and percentage of people aged < 15
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14 IS POPULATION AGEING PROBLEMATIC? 1. Changes in the demand for health services 2. Changes in the demand for housing and residential services 3. Changes in the demand for state-supplied pensions and other age-related benefits 4. Changes in the supply of labour
15
15 SOLUTIONS?
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20 The main “cause” of population ageing is low fertility A) Increasing fertility will slow the ageing process B) Increasing net migration may slow the ageing process
21
21
22
22
23
23 THE AGE-SPECIFIC NATURE OF FERTILITY IS IMPORTANT
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.