1. Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency By John Haltiwanger University of Maryland and NBER

2. Overview Ideal micro-macro consistency: CES reports net job loss of 70,000 jobs in the month CES reports net job loss of 70,000 jobs in the month Drill down beyond industry and state Job creation/hiring vs. job destruction/separations What type of workers? What type of firms? Productivity growth surging – again drill down beyond industry: Productivity growth surging – again drill down beyond industry: Continuing establishments vs. entry/exit Real time micro-macro consistency very ambitious but currently even with substantial lag it is difficult But it is even more than this – i.e., sometimes more than just details the “aggregate” patterns reflect complex aggregation of micro patterns that may vary dramatically from aggregate patterns. the “aggregate” patterns reflect complex aggregation of micro patterns that may vary dramatically from aggregate patterns.

8. Trends in Unemployment Inflows, Outflows and Escape Rates (CPS) Quarterly Averages of Monthly SA values for Experienced Unemployed

9. Aggregate Worker Flows: Convolution of hiring/separation micro functions and cross sectional distributions important for hiring Vs. firing view of recessions Open theoretical/empirical questions: Properties of h, s and f

10. Hires and Establishment Growth

11. Quits and Layoffs vs Establishment Net Growth, JOLTS

12. Separations-Net Relation in JOLTS Micro Data Pooled Sample, 12 High-Growth and 12 Low-Growth Months

13. Hiring/net growth micro relationship stable across high and low aggregate growth periods Layoff/net growth micro relationship stable across high and low aggregate growth periods

14. Interactions between nonlinearities and cross sectional distribution potentially important for aggregate fluctuations

16. Closing thoughts Lumpy micro, smooth macro Nonlinear micro Adjustment costs Adjustment costs Inherent asymmetries of different margins of adjustment (hiring, layoffs, quits) Inherent asymmetries of different margins of adjustment (hiring, layoffs, quits) Heterogeneous micro Idiosyncratic shocks are an order of magnitude larger than aggregate shocks Idiosyncratic shocks are an order of magnitude larger than aggregate shocks Aggregate behavior is a complex aggregation of lumpy, nonlinear micro behavior aggregated over heterogeneous units Relevant for many issues including helping understand labor market dynamics in last two recessions Also important for investment, productivity dynamics, etc.