1. Quantitative Assessment of Cumulative Impacts: Challenges and Progress Lauren Zeise Cal/EPA Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment CAPCOA Workshop: Health Impact of Air Pollution on Communities September 19, 2007 Carson, California

2. “Problem Formulation” “Problem Formulation” What’s being decided? What’s being decided? What are the questions? What are the questions? Science Science What we know What we know What we don’t know What we don’t know Analytical tools Analytical tools Practice Practice Who assesses Who assesses How assessment is done How assessment is done What’s assessed What’s assessed Who uses it and how do they Who uses it and how do they Quantitative CI Assessment: Challenges and Progress

3. Challenges

4. #1: Problem Formulation What question does the CIA address? What can be done to insure risk doesn’t increase when an new facility is introduced? What can be done to insure risk doesn’t increase when an new facility is introduced? Is the environmental risk load for the community too large? Is the environmental risk load for the community too large? How is the community impacted? How is the community impacted?

5. The Great Separation Risk Assessment Risk Management Unclear how to dialog to get to right questions, analyses and decisions for the community

6. #2: Science List Driven Assessments Toxic Hot Spot (AB2588), Toxic Air Contaminants, Criteria Air Pollutants Toxic Hot Spot (AB2588), Toxic Air Contaminants, Criteria Air Pollutants No endpoint specific test, no value, no risk No endpoint specific test, no value, no risk Not listed, no risk Not listed, no risk No exposure estimate, no risk estimate No exposure estimate, no risk estimate Long listing process, high evidence threshold for some lists Long listing process, high evidence threshold for some lists

7. Data Gaps Source Gaps Source Gaps Exposure Gaps Exposure Gaps Toxicity Gaps Toxicity Gaps Cumulative Effects Gaps Cumulative Effects Gaps “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” Albert Einstein

8. Scientific Knowledge Gap Still limited understanding about How most chemicals cause human disease How most chemicals cause human disease How chemicals interact with each other and other factors (e.g., SES) to cause disease How chemicals interact with each other and other factors (e.g., SES) to cause disease

9. Science: Limited confidence in risk attributions from environmental causes for most community diseases

10. #3: Practice Typical Risk Assessment Typical Risk Assessment Chemical-by-chemical Chemical-by-chemical Media-by-media Media-by-media Source-by-source Source-by-source Most community characteristics not considered Most community characteristics not considered Typical Regulatory Approach Typical Regulatory Approach Each authority considers source-by-source projects or facilities within its mandates and jurisdiction Each authority considers source-by-source projects or facilities within its mandates and jurisdiction No integration across jurisdictions No integration across jurisdictions

11. Progress Along long and near term trajectories

12. #1: Asking the right questions NAS 1996 Understanding Risk: Stakeholder involvement in early and all stages of assessment NAS 1996 Understanding Risk: Stakeholder involvement in early and all stages of assessment Decision/assessment schemes have moved toward this approach (e.g., US EPA) Decision/assessment schemes have moved toward this approach (e.g., US EPA) Cal/EPA dialog with California Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (“CEJAC”) Cal/EPA dialog with California Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (“CEJAC”)

13. Cumulative Impacts & Environmental Justice in California “Cumulative impacts means exposures, public health or environmental effects from the combined emissions and discharges in a geographic area, including environmental pollution from all sources, whether single or multi-media, routinely, accidentally or otherwise released. Impacts will take into account sensitive populations and socio-economic factors, where applicable and to the extent data are available.” Cal/EPA, Feb. 2005

14. #2: Science Initiatives and Developments Developing high throughput approaches to capture early markers of toxicity Developing high throughput approaches to capture early markers of toxicity National Academies 2007 Toxicity Testing NTP Roadmap EPA ToxCast Upstream approaches Upstream approaches enable greater numbers of chemicals to be assessed provide scientific basis for precautionary approaches NAS 2007

15. Recognition of Impacts of Background and Vulnerability on Risk Recognition of Impacts of Background and Vulnerability on Risk Background Background Biological Biological Exposure Exposure Vulnerability Age, genetics, health disease status Interactions with SES and other community factors

16. California Environmental Chemical Biomonitoring Program SB 1379 (Perata-Ortiz) signed into law September 2006 SB 1379 (Perata-Ortiz) signed into law September 2006 Planning $$ in Governors 2007-2008 budget Planning $$ in Governors 2007-2008 budget Program to measures baseline levels of environmental chemicals in Californians Program to measures baseline levels of environmental chemicals in Californians Will serve as a point of comparison for community exposures Will serve as a point of comparison for community exposures Near term, data can help predict cumulative exposure and risk Near term, data can help predict cumulative exposure and risk Long term, markers of effect may help measure cumulative health impacts Long term, markers of effect may help measure cumulative health impacts

17. Additional Areas of Scientific Progress (types of things discussed at this CAPCOA meeting) Tools readily used by non-experts under development Tools readily used by non-experts under development More technically complex CI analytical tools being developed More technically complex CI analytical tools being developed Disease and exposures tracking and monitoring Disease and exposures tracking and monitoring Continuing epidemiological developments exploring and confirming community disease and environmental exposure relationships Continuing epidemiological developments exploring and confirming community disease and environmental exposure relationships

18. #3: Practice at Cal/EPA Initiated: Development of Cal/EPA Framework for Cumulative Impact Assessment Initiated: Development of Cal/EPA Framework for Cumulative Impact Assessment Research and technical assistance from UC Research and technical assistance from UC Formation of a Cumulative Impacts and Precautionary Approaches Workgroup Formation of a Cumulative Impacts and Precautionary Approaches Workgroup

19. Cumulative Impacts and Precautionary Approaches Workgroup to advise on: Cumulative Impacts and Precautionary Approaches Workgroup to advise on: Proposed Cumulative Impact (CI) and Precautionary Assessment Frameworks Proposed Cumulative Impact (CI) and Precautionary Assessment Frameworks Tools for CI Tools for CI Opportunities for use of CI assessment in decision- making Opportunities for use of CI assessment in decision- making Implementation, including proposals for policy, regulatory and statutory changes Implementation, including proposals for policy, regulatory and statutory changes