1. Biophysical and Socioeconomic Assessments: The LOICZ* Approach Liana Talaue-McManus Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami LOICZ Nutrient Budget & Typology Teams *Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone

2. Objectives LOICZ framework in assessing the role of the global coast in material (carbon, nutrients, freshwater) delivery and cycling. A resource in identifying/ formulating indicators for themes on coastal water quality and eutrophication Scale: –Local: catchments and associated estuarine areas –Regional and global carbon assessments

3. Outline Goals of LOICZ as a Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Biophysical approaches Socio-economic approaches Future directions

4.  mass balances of C, N and P  interphase with integrated coastal management  land use, climate, sea level on material fluxes and coastal morphodynamics  anthropogenic influence  trace gas emissions  source/ sink for Carbon dioxide

5. Local Regional Global SCALESSCALES SCALESSCALES MATERIAL FLUX MODELS Basins Coastal Seas Oceans Typology Horizontal fluxes Vertical fluxes Ecosystems & Habitats & People LOICZ

6. Nutrient Budget Modeling PrPredictive relationships Typology To discern Regional & Global patterns 22002 222 200 sites with nutrient budgets Using global Databases to Scale up Clustering & Visualization tools

7. DATA NEEDS: System area and volume River runoff, precipitation, & evaporation Salinity gradient Nutrient loads DIP concentrations DIN concentrations DOP, DON (if available) DIC (if available).

8. Non-conservative nutrient fluxes

9. Stoichiometry 106CO 2 + 16H + + 16NO 3 - + H 3 PO 4 + 122H 2 O (CH 2 O) 106 (NH 3 ) 16 H 3 PO 4 + 138O 2 (p-r) or net ecosystem metabolism, NEM = -  DIP x 106 (C:P) (nfix-denit) =  DIN obs -  DIN exp =  DIN obs -  DIP x 16 (N:P) Where: (C:P) ratio is 106:1 and (N:P) ratio is 16:1 (Redfield ratio) Note:Redfield C:N:P is a good approximation where local C:N:P is absent (e.g. mangrove litter). Redfield Equation

10. Non-conservative fluxes & system states: Lingayen Gulf Derived ParameterEstimate (mmol m -2 yr -1 ) DIP load (total input fluxes) 65 DIN load (total input fluxes) 425  DIP -35  DIN -600 (p-r) (nfix-denit) 1,890 0

11. Nutrient Budget Assessments (black areas)

12. Socioeconomic Assessments Site specific: –Population –Waste load from economic Global: –Population –Waste load proxies Agricultural land cover Runoff (natural + anthropogenic sources)

13. Methods ECONOMIC SUB-SYSTEM ESTUARINE SUB-SYTEM RESIDUALS RESOURCES Input-Output Modelling (James 1985) Biogeochemical Budget Modelling (Gordon et al. 1996)

14. Input-Output Model: 11 Economic Sectors Agriculture Fishery Forestry Mining & quarrying Heavy manufacturing (I) Light manufacturing (II) Electricity, gas & water Waterworks & supply Construction Transport, communication & storage Other services Household

15. Population & Economics FeatureRed River Delta Ban Don Bay Lingayen Gulf Merbok Estuary Population (x1000) 19,9008602,600300 Population Density (nos km -2 ) 61070400680 Economic activities -Agriculture -Forestry -Capture fisheries -Shrimp farming -Aquaculture -Capture fisheries -Mangrove wood harvest -Agriculture -Rubber & oil -Agriculture -Capture fisheries -Aquaculture -Light manufacturing -Charcoal production -Capture fisheries -Aquaculture -Agriculture

16. Nutrients: Human-generated and Loads Parameter (mmol m -2 yr -1 ) RRD CNP= 1000:13:1 Bandon Bay CNP = 324:27:1 Lingayen Gulf CNP = 106:16:1 Merbok Estuary CNP = 1400:9:1 DIP generation Agriculture Household 520 78% NA 10 21% 14% 90 45% 53% 180 31% NA DIP load110256520 DIN generation Agriculture Household 1,940 76% NA 60 21% 15% 800 78% 20% 2,480 28% NA DIN load4051140425670

17. Nutrient Budget Assessments (black areas): How to scale up globally?

18. Predictive relationships Log (mol DIP km -2 yr -1 ) = 2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km -2 ) + 0.78 X log (runoff in m 3 yr -1 ) DIP load, number of persons, and runoff scaled to catchment basin area N=168; r 2 = 0.58 (Smith et al, in prep.)

19. LOICZ Typology Database 0.5 degree grid 47,057 cells (out of 259,200 total for earth’s surface) make up primary typology cells –Coastal (with shoreline; NOAA 1999) –Stream network (U. New Hampshire 1999) –Grid cell composition: Coastal (15,278 cells) + terrestrial (immed. Landward) (12,449 cells) + oceanic (immed. Seaward) (19,330 cells)

20. Yield Load

21. Potential Directions Systematic assessments of socioeconomic drivers along rural-urban gradients –System state feedbacks on resource-based economic activities (capture fisheries, aquaculture, tourism) –Watershed management Fertilizer policy and use Sewage and wastewater treatment Land use and cover change

22. LOICZ: Phase II