1. Real-Time PV Power Forecasting Will Holmgren Postdoctoral Research Assistant Department of Physics University of Arizona Alex Cronin, Associate Professor, Physics Antonio Lorenzo, Grad Student, Opt. Sci. Eric Betterton, Dept. Head, Atmo. Sci. Mike Leuthold, Meteorologist, Atmo. Sci. Chang Ki Kim, Post doc, Atmo. Sci. Ardeth Barnhart, Director, UA-REN Rey Granillo, Developer, UA-REN

2. PV impact on TEP load Can we achieve high PV penetration and maintain grid stability? Maybe if we have reliable power forecasts!

3. 45 MW / 30 min 25 MW / 2 min 55 MW / 1 min on 9/26 PV Power Variability

4. Predicting power using PV data

5. Real-time data sources map + Springerville + Black Mountain

6. TFS to UA 1 min warning Technicians for Sustainability Local PV installer UA Physics and Atmospheric Sciences

7. TFS to UA 1 min warning TFS UA

8. TFS to UA 1 min warning

9. Retrospective forecasts based on data from 100 rooftops Network-based Forecasts Building system to do this in real-time

10. Retrospective forecasts based on data from 100 rooftops Network-based Forecasts Building system to do this in real-time

11. Hybrid forecasting

12. PV Assets Map ACE Scenario Simulations Reserve Policy PV Power Forecast Resource Planning Marketing Operations Forecast GUI For Utilities Irradiance Sensors DG Metering Data Sky Cameras WRF Model Hybrid method for irradiance forecasting Utility Co. Hybrid forecasting utility integration

13. ATMO Wind forecasting for TEP

14. Solar forecasting for TEP Correct features, only wrong by 1 hour This is good!

15. Real time clearness maps

16. Website for TEP