1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Virginia and the Richmond, Norfolk and Washington DC Metro Areas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 21 slides are from the “State of the Church in Virginia” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Virginia Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Virginia?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Virginia will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Virginia has an average church attendance percentage (18.0%) very close to the national average (18.7%).

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7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Virginia.

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9. 9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Virginia. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. Seven counties have declined in population over the last decade.

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12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Virginia in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Virginia in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown numerically over the last decade. But as population changes, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a decrease in the percentage of the population attending church, with the exception of Catholic churches.

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19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Complete Virginia Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use20 The next 10 slides are from the “State of the Church in Richmond” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm

21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use21 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Richmond area in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals, Mainline and Catholic churches have all grown. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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24. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use24 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the Richmond area. The Richmond metro area consists of Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, New Kent, Powhatan and Prince George counties. (Virginia cities are incorporated in the statistics of the county they are in.)

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 Richmond Metro Area 2000 Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church on Any Given Weekend 21.1% Dinwiddie 18.5% Charles City 16.3% New Kent 17.8% Prince George 21.7% Hanover 24.4% Henrico 13.0% Chesterfield 21.8% Goochland 14.3% Powhatan

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this metro area and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this metro area and the nation. This shows how many people live in this metro area for every Christian church. Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest at 411 people per church, while Virginia is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

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29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Richmond metro area between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 6 counties grew in attendance percentage, 3 declined. For Mainline churches, 4 counties grew in attendance percentage, 5 declined. For Catholics, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, 3 declined.

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use30 Richmond Metro Area 1990 – 2000 Percentage Change in Evangelical Church Attendance 10.2% Dinwiddie -5.8% Charles City 12.8% New Kent -0.4% Prince George 67.1% Hanover 0.8% Henrico 6.5% Chesterfield 0.9% Goochland -13.3% Powhatan

31. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use31 The Complete Richmond Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 The next 7 slides are from the “State of the Church in Washington DC” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Washington DC area in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals and Mainline churches have grown, while Catholic churches have slightly declined in attendance numbers. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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36. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use36 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the Washington DC area. The Washington DC area was 27th out of the largest 55 metropolitan areas in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend. The Washington DC metro area consists of the District of Columbia, Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, King George, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren (all in Virginia), Calvert, Charles, Montgomery, Frederick, Prince Georges (all in Maryland), Berkeley and Jefferson (WV) counties. (Virginia cities are incorporated in the statistics for the county they are in.)

37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 Washington DC Metro Area 2000 Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church on Any Given Weekend 12.7% Arlington 15.2% Fairfax 13.9% Berkeley 13.2% Jefferson 17.0% Loudoun 17.7% Montgomery 23.7% Prince Georges 18.2% Frederick 17.9% Charles 17.4% Calvert Fauquier 12.4% Prince William 13.6% 13.5% Warren 11.0% Clarke 13.8% King George 16.6% Culpeper 19.2% Spotsylvania 12.0% Stafford District of Columbia 28.6%

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Washington DC area.

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42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. Five counties in the Washington DC area grew in attendance percentage and 14 declined. The Washington DC area was 38th out of the largest 55 metropolitan areas in the growth rate of the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 – 2000.

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Washington DC Metro Area 1990 – 2000 Percentage Change in Total Church Attendance -15.0% Arlington -9.6% Fairfax -17.2% Berkeley -15.6% Jefferson 18.2% Loudoun -6.2% Montgomery -2.2% Prince Georges -2.6% Frederick -7.6% Charles 22.1% Calvert Fauquier -13.8% Prince William -6.5% 3.8% Warren -8.7% Clarke 6.2% King George -5.6% Culpeper -15.9% Spotsylvania 19.3% Stafford District of Columbia -9.9%

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 The Complete Washington DC Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 The next 8 slides are from the “State of the Church in Norfolk” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm

46. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use46 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the Norfolk area. The Norfolk metro area consists of Gloucester, Hampton, Isle Of Wight, James City, Mathews, Newport News, Norfolk, Suffolk, Virginia Beach and York counties. (Virginia cities are incorporated in the statistics for the county they are in.)

47. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use47 Norfolk Metro Area 2000 Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church on Any Given Weekend 23.1% Mathews 13.9% Gloucester 15.5% Isle Of Wight 22.4% Newport News 20.8% Suffolk 19.7% Hampton 17.9% James City 11.9% York 18.6% Norfolk 18.6% Virginia Beach

48. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use48 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Norfolk area in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals, Mainline and Catholic churches have all grown. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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52. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use52 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Norfolk metro area between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, 5 declined. For Mainline churches, one county grew in attendance percentage, 9 declined. For Catholics, 7 counties grew in attendance percentage, 2 declined.

53. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use53 Norfolk Metro Area 1990 – 2000 Percentage Change in Evangelical Church Attendance -1.5% Mathews -29.8% Gloucester -14.2% Isle Of Wight 0.1% Newport News 1.9% Suffolk 26.9% Hampton -11.4% James City -3.6% York 1.2% Norfolk 24.3% Virginia Beach

54. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use54 The Complete Washington DC Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm

55. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use55 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

56. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use56 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Virginia Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UVA20.htm The Complete Richmond Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Richmond.htm The Complete Norfolk Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Norfolk.htm The Complete Washington DC Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/WashingtonDC.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Virginia, Richmond, Norfolk and Washington DC Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/VA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/VA0.htm