1. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 2014? 2016?

2. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney: 206 Romney: 206

3. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 McCain: 173 McCain: 173

4. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012

5. Source: The Washington Post

6. Source: Crystal Ball’s Prof. Alan Abramowitz Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 R²=0.96

7. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Source: Real Clear Politics Debate #1Debate #2 Debate #3

8. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Obama (D): 63,915,634 (50.8%) Romney (R): 59,885,921 (47.5%) Total (as of 11/26): 127,000,000 Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

9. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 No renomination challenge First term for Dem Enough economic growth to generate optimism Recovered from 10/3 debate loss Great voter contact/GOTV Demographics

10. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney Romney Women (55%) African Americans (93%) Hispanics (71%) Asians (73%) Age 18-29 (60%) Age 30-44 (52%) Men (52%) Whites (59%) White Evangelicals (79%) Age 45-64 (51%) Age 65+ (56%)

11. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Define himself before Obama did Use convention better Stress “Mr. Fixit” on the economy Use more $ for GOTV, less on TV Move sharply toward middle in summer Reverse anti-immigration stance Pick a different VP (Rubio, Portman, etc.)

12. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Source: Vital Stats on American Politics, 2012

13. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 House: 234 R, 201 D Senate: 55 D, 45 R

14. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 CT IN MA ME MO MT ND NE VA WI

15. 20 D13 R Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012

16. NEW Governors D: WA, MT, NH R: IN, NC

17. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Races D: 13 R: 22 I: 1

18. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Party Changes - To D: CO House, ME House + Sen., MN House + Sen., NH House, NY Sen., OR House -To R: AR House + Sen., WI Sen.

19. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Republicans: A Cast of Thousands Chris Christie Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Rob Portman Bobby Jindal Paul Ryan Rand Paul Susana Martinez Scott Walker Rick Santorum Mike Huckabee Bob McDonnell John Thune Rick Perry Newt Gingrich

20. Democrats: Return of the Clintons? Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Andrew Cuomo Elizabeth Warren Mark Warner Brian Schweitzer

21. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 GOOD NEWS: Nat’l Neg. Ad Liberation Month BAD NEWS: Broadway closing “Promises, Promises” End of Pleasure Season, Start of Pain Season

22. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball goodpolitics@virginia.edu Free!And…