1. Challenges and Choices San Francisco Bay Area Long Range Plan Therese W. McMillan Deputy Executive Director, Policy Metropolitan Transportation Commission Siemens Mobility Press Tour February 2, 2008

2. Now to the Year 2035 Challenges Growth Cost of Housing Cost of Transportation Health Community Stability Sustainability Climate Change Choices Planning for a Better Future Targets Infrastructure Focused Growth Transport Pricing Assessing the Difference Moving Forward

3. Growth Nearly 2 million more people 1.8 million new jobs Need for over 700,000 new homes A tripling in freight volumes C h a l l e n g e s

4. Cost of Housing C h a l l e n g e s Median Home Prices, 2007 First-time Homebuyer

5. Growth in Interregional Commuting 2000-2030 +83% +64% + 90 % +120% Cost of Transportation Longer distances Increasing delay 103% Increase in Delay, 2000 - 2030 200 400 600 800 20002030 Daily Delay (000s of hours) C h a l l e n g e s 103% Increase in Delay 2000-2030

6. Community Stability Distressed communities in the region’s core Concentrations of poverty Urban and suburban violence Schools in crisis Growing income gap Fear of gentrification and displacement United Way Neighborhoods with Concentrated Poverty C h a l l e n g e s

7. Climate Change Impact on Bay Area Rising sea levels More hot, smoggy days Vanishing Sierra snow pack; Water shortages More wild fires with pollution Bay Area’s impact on the globe Per capita carbon footprint 3 times the world average 50% from transportation C h a l l e n g e s

8. Planning for a Better Future C h o i c e s REDUCE CONGESTION IMPROVE AFFORDABILITY REDUCE EMISSIONS & VMT InfrastructureEconomyEnvironmentEquity GOALS TARGETS Pricing & Focused Growth STRATEGIES

9. Infrastructure Freeway Operations Capital cost: $600 million Complete ramp metering and traffic operations system Limited carpool lane gap closures Complete traffic signal coordination C h o i c e s

10. Infrastructure High-Occupancy/Toll (HOT) Lanes and Bus Enhancements Capital cost: $10 billion Complete HOV/HOT network Expand express and local bus Park & ride lots Transit hubs Direct ramps Priority treatments to increase speed and reliability C h o i c e s

11. Infrastructure Regional Rail and Ferry Capital cost: $60 billion Regional Rail Improvements and extensions Build on California High-Speed Rail Ferry New and enhanced routes C h o i c e s

12. Focused Growth Alternative Land-Use Scenario For “what-if” analysis More concentrated and transit-oriented than Projections 2007 Better jobs-housing balance C h o i c e s

13. Transport Pricing Pricing package increases auto operating costs five-fold, with focus on peak congested times Cents per mile (2007 $) Note: Represents cost for typical commute trip. Does not reflect discounts for low-income travelers. C h o i c e s Cost Increase for Typical Commute

14. Assessing the Difference Environment: Reduce CO 2 to 52,000 tons per day C h o i c e s Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations, including fuel efficiency standards called for under state law passed in 2002, though currently in litigation (AB 1493, Pavley, 2002) Trend Best Infrastructure 2035 Target Add Pricing and Land Use 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Tons per day of CO 2 (x1000) 2005201020152020202520302035 2000

15. Assessing the Difference Environment: Reduce fine particulate emissions (PM 2.5 ) to 18 tons per day Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations that would reduce emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines (trucks) C h o i c e s 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20002005201020152020202520302035 Tons PM2.5 per day Trend Best Infrastructure 2035 Target Add Pricing and Land Use

16. Assessing the Difference Environment: Reduce coarse particulate emissions (PM 10 ) to 38 tons per day C h o i c e s 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20002005201020152020202520302035 Tons PM 10 per day Trend Best Infrastructure 2035 Target Add Pricing and Land Use

17. Assessing the Difference Environment: Reduce daily VMT to 17.1 miles per person C h o i c e s 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20002005201020152020202520302035 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita Trend Best Infrastructure 2035 Target Add Pricing and Land Use

18. Assessing the Difference Economy: Reduce congestion delay per person to 21.3 hours a year C h o i c e s Trend Freeway Operations 2035 Target Add Pricing and Land Use 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 20002005201020152020202520302035 Annual Vehicle Hours of Delay per Capita

19. Assessing the Difference Equity: Reduce share of earnings low- and lower middle-income households spend on housing and transportation to 61%* * Includes households with annual income less than $70,000 ** Alternative land use assumes direct housing subsidies to low- and lower middle-income households totaling $2.1 billion annually C h o i c e s 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 20002005201020152020202520302035 Pricing (with Land Use**) Trend 2035 Target Land Use**

20. Moving Forward Summary Conclusions Requires an integrated strategy No single silver bullet Policies and investments must reinforce one another Infrastructure alone is not nearly enough C h o i c e s

21. Moving Forward Pricing and Focused Growth can make a big difference Pricing near-term; land use longer-term Must design pricing to address equity Auto trips diverted with pricing and focused growth + 2.1 million bike/pedestrian trips +700,000 new transit trips Need to be aggressive ─ Are we ready? C h o i c e s

22. Moving Forward But we still need more if we want to meet ambitious targets Fuel efficiency and alternative fuels Telecommuting and employer strategies Other changes in attitude and behavior C h o i c e s

23. Moving Forward Next Steps Develop comprehensive, realistic strategy for pricing and land use changes Create a supporting investment package Develop policy-based criteria to evaluate projects Move forward with vision and purpose C h o i c e s