1. Cosmic Rays, Global Warming and the Origin of life. Sir Arnold Wolfendale FRS, 14 th Astronomer Royal.

2. Topics to be covered. 1. Low Cloud Cover and the CR correlations. 2. Lightning. 3. Origin of life.

3. Low cloud cover anomalies and CR intensity (Huancayo) – Svensmark (2007)

4. There is a correlation – in time – between ‘cloud cover’, at low altitudes, and ‘cosmic ray intensity’. Is it a case of ‘cause and effect’?

5. Cosmic ray ionization Charged cosmic rays produce ionization. Although unlikely, CR ions help the growth of cloud nuclei by attaching to aerosols. Check, first, by examining the cloud cover – CR correlation over the earth. Earth’s magnetic field causes a variation of CR intensity over the surface of the earth. Correlate with CR intensity or sun- spot number.

6. Ions as condensation centres for clouds ? But Supersaturations in atmosphere far too low for ions to be at an advantage. Aerosols (salt particles, dust, industrial emissions…) dominate. Sizes 10 -1  (10 ±2 ). ~ ~ CR produce ~ 3 ion pairs cm -3 s -1 in the lower atmosphere. Lifetime is ~ 50sec, so ~ 150cm -3. Clouds have ~ 100 droplets cm -3 so a link would appear to be obvious.

7. Evidence from radioactive ‘events’ Chernobyl ~ ~ ~ April 26, 1986 2 Mt of fall-out. No increase in cloud cover.  (ions cloud droplets)  3%

8. Nuclear Bomb Tests E.g. BRAVO - Bikini Atoll, March1,1954. ~ 15 Mt radioactive particles,10 -100  300 miles from Ground Zero, dose rate ~ 100 Rh -1, after 4 days. Yields 5.10 7 ions cm -1 s -1 Averaging over space and time and allowing for size distribution yields.  10 -4 < ~

9. Radon Radon is an important contributor to atmospheric ionization over land. Indian ‘hot spots’, particularly in the SW. Scans of low CC over two regions show no excess and  25% < ~

10. Dorman’s rigidity map

11. Magnitude of the CC modulation vs. VRCO

12. 1. Cosmic Rays a. LCC directly (difficult) b. Effect on atmospheric transparency – ht. ~10km (aerosols.) Kudryavstevetal,(2005) c. Electrical effects. CR affect the ‘global atmospheric circuit’ (Tinsley, Harrison, Rycroft…). Cloud edges? Possible explanations for the correlations – i.e. the 11 – year cycle.

13. Global mean Surface Temperature: peak to peak 0.07 o c for change in radiation of 0.24Wm -2 Mt. Pinatubo Volcano (1991) Temperature reduction 0.8 deg C. year Change in radiation of 3.6 Wm -2 year A similar ratio (but energies very different): Pinatubo 10 16 J; oceanic change 2.10 22 J, - a factor of 1 million. Also problems with 22y/11y conversion and geographical distribution of temperature change for 11-y cycle. 2. Solar Irradiance

14. The ‘atmosphere’

15. Tentative Conclusions 3.Solar irradiance variations probably cause the solar cycle (11-year) oscillation. 2.CR contribution to slow increase of mean global temperature over last 35 years < 1%. ~ ~ 1.CR contribution to 11-year cycle variability of mean global temperature < 15%.

16. Summary for decadal averages

17. “Man made Global Warming”

19. Global and continental temperature change

20. Man – made Response Imbalance Total Natural Aerosols Ozone CO 2

21. F2: Percentage cloud change for a 2% change in CR intensity

22. Possible ‘natural causes’ of Global Warming 1. Cosmic Rays 2. Solar Effects 3. Milankovich Effects 4. Geothermal Changes 5. Volcanoes 6. Meteoritic and Cometary Dust 7.Oceanic Heat Re-distribution 8. Past ‘random’ changes. (10,000 y ago)

23. Lightning

29. Miller (1953) – and Miller & Urey water, methane, ammonia, etc. (the ‘pre-biotic soup’) Amino-acids RNA Monomers

30. SNR Model : A.D. Erlykin & AWW (2001)

31. On average, every million years, ICR(>10 16 eV) up by ~ 10 5 for ~ 30,000 years. Probably enough to cause a sufficiently large frequency of lightning discharges to cause production of RNA, monomers, etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP.

32. After Parman (2009)

33. More recently – and more probably – the generation of NO X by lightning will have had relevance to evolution. NO X is welcome to plants and bad for humans.