1. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL1 Planned reactor and beam experiments on neutrino oscillations The search for  13 A review for experts Maury Goodman Argonne National Lab Next talk: Luca Stanco

2. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL2 Current and Future Projects relevant for  13  Current  MINOS  OPERA  ICARUS  Near-term Reactor  Double Chooz  Daya Bay –RENO  Other –KamLAND  “Solar” & “Atmospheric” –HANO-HANO  Far-term Reactor –“Supenova”  Mid-term accelerator  T2K  NO A  Far-term accelerator  T2HK  T2KK –MODULAR/LAGUNA  FNAL-DUSEL  A Neutrino Factory  A Beta Beam –INO  I will mention  See next talk by Luca Stanco

3. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL3 Outline  Introduction - Review of Current Limits/Global Fits  Predicted Chronology for  13 results  MINOS  Double Chooz –Daya Bay & RENO –T2K  NO A  Reactor Experiments beyond DC/DB/RENO  Unpredictable non-chronology  LB-DUSEL, Neutrino Factories –Beta Beams, Hano-Hano, INO, MODULAr  Personal opinions about our Neutrino Oscillation Future

4. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL4 What next? A Groucho Marx Question *, “Two of the three mixing angles have been measured. What should we do next?” * At the end of the show, Losing contestants would get questions with obvious answers, so that everyone won some money.

5. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL5 Why are there many numbers quoted as the “Chooz Limit” for θ 13 ?  Sin 2 2θ 13 < 0.19 (at 2.0 10 -3 eV 2 ) in PDG You also see 0.10, 0.11, 0.14, 0.15, 0.20, …  Limit has to be quoted at a  m 2 32 which can change  Should quote at low  m 2 32 & not “best fit”  Global fits include solar  Will change due to MINOS Palo Verde Chooz SK allowed sin 2 2 θ 13 (90% CL) sin 2 2 θ 13 ∆m 2

6. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL6 (small!) Hint of non-zero θ 13 from global fits? ArXiv 0806.2649 1.Small e excess in atmospheric neutrinos 2.Imperfect agreement between KamLAND and Solar fits  sin 2 2  13 = 0.016  0.010

7. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL7 At an accelerator P(   e ) (in Vacuum) P(   e ) = P 1 + P 2 + P 3 + P 4 –P 1 = sin 2 (  23 ) sin 2 (2  13 ) sin 2 (1.27  m 31 2 L/E) –P 2 = cos 2 (  23 ) sin 2 (2  12 ) sin 2 (1.27  m 21 2 L/E) –P 3 = J sin(  ) sin(1.27  m 31 2 L/E) –P 4 = J cos(  ) cos(1.27  m 31 2 L/E) where J = cos(  13 ) sin (2  12 ) sin (2  13 ) sin (2  23 ) x sin (1.27  m 31 2 L/E) sin (1.27  m 21 2 L/E)

8. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL8 Correlations & degeneracies  One perfect measurement of P(   e ) and P(   e )  8 possible values of sin 2 (2  13 )

9. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL9 Near a reactor P( e  e ) P ~ 1 - sin 2 (2   ) sin 2 (1.27  m 32 2 L/E)

10. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL10 Reactor vs. Accelerator Reactor Features  Best current limit  Needs careful control of systematics  Subtract two numbers  Not sensitive to CP, matter  Required detector sizes > 10 tons Accelerator Features  Some long-baseline beams already (almost) exist  Signal/Background improves off-axis  Sensitive to CP, matter →ambiguities/degenera cies  Required detector sizes > 10 kilotons

11. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL11 MINOS

12. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL12 MINOS  484 planes of 4 cm strips Details were in Jon Paley’s talk

13. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL13 NuMI Beam Performance 13 Total Protons (E20) 12 May 2008

14. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL14 e Sensitivity for  13  At CHOOZ limit expect 12 ν e signal events and 42 background events with 3.25x10 20 protons.  Use sidebands to study predicted far detector backgrounds.

15. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL15 REACTOR s

16. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL16 Reactor Luminosity Scaling From hep-ph/0303232 ∞ Error 400 t GW y 8000 t GW y No Error Sin 2 2 θ 13 sensitivity Bin-to-bin uncorrelated

17. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL17 The Site ν ν ν ν ν ν ν ν 1051 m 280 m Double Chooz Site

18. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL18 The Double Chooz Detector(s) TARGET : (th=2,3m) -Acrylic vessel (th=8mm) - 10,3 m 3 LS doped with 0,1% Gd GAMMA CATCHER : (th. = 0,55m) -Acrylic vessel (th= 12mm) - 22,6 m 3 LS (identical to target) Buffer : (th. = 1,05m) -Stainless steel vessel (th = 3 mm) -114,2 m 3 mineral oil -~534 PMTs (8 inches) Inner VETO: (t = 0,5 m) -Steel vessel th = 10 mm) -~80 m 3 LS -~70 PMTs OTHER SYSTEMS -Outer Muon Veto System -Calibration Systems -Glove Boxes 7m SHIELDING (th. = 170 mm) - Steel

19. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL19 I. Get to the Transition Strategy #1 (Double Chooz, RENO) There is considerable parameter space available to quickly improve the current limit.

20. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL20 II. Beat Down the Transition Strategy #2 (Daya Bay) Work hard on reducing systematic errors, such as with movable detectors.

21. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL21 III. Pass the Transition Strategy #3 (later?) With larger detectors, make yourself less sensitive to systematic errors.

22. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL22 NO A

23. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL23 NO A-Where? The Ash River site is the furthest available site from Fermilab along the NuMI beamline. This maximizes NO A’s sensitivity to the mass ordering. Off-axis

24. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL24 NO A design plastic filled with scintillator An admirer 32-cell extrusions. The planes alternate horizontal and vertical.

25. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL25 Signal & Background x-z y-z

26. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL26 NO A oscillations  NO A was approved at Fermilab and construction funds were included in the DOE 07-08 proposed budget ($12M first year of $260M)  Funds also in Congressional budgets, but retroactively zero’d in a December 07 compromise  P5 report recommended NO A, but not in all funding scenarios.  A supplemental funding bill in July 08 included $9.2 M for NO A, but there’s no 09 budget yet.  It recently passed its (second) CD2 review; signed!  Hardware & Civil projects that had been delayed are gearing back up.

27. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL27 Future of HEP in the US Future of Fermilab

28. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL28 P5 DUSEL Project X ANU

29. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL29 Project X

30. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL30 3 100kt detectors at DUSEL

31. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL31

32. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL32

33. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL33 Water or Liquid Argon?On-Axis or Off-Axis?  On-Axis More flux  Off-Axis Less Background  Design a Flexible Beam?

34. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL34 One (unofficial) notion of a LB-DUSEL schedule

35. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL35 Neutrino Factory

36. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL36 Neutrino Factory Neutrino Factory comprises: –Proton Driver primary beam on production target –Target, Capture, and Decay create  ; decay into  –Bunching and Phase Rotation reduce  E of bunch –Cooling reduce transverse emittance –Acceleration 130 MeV  20 GeV –Storage Ring store for 500 turns; long straight US Design schematic

37. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL37 Some opinions about all of this

38. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL38 Things to watch for Reactor  Scintillator stability - large amounts of liquid  Civil Construction Schedules  Calculations & Measurements of 9 Li  Gw ton years  I think there is a reasonable chance of an answer soon (i.e. signal, marginal signal, limit)

39. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL39 Things to watch for Accelerator  Existence (or not) of large underground facilities  Improvements in Detector technologies – such as phototubes  Full costs of new beam, lab, accelerator, detector  Escalating costs vis-à-vis the rest of the field  Claims “we need new experiments whatever the reactor experiments see for  13 ” if limits

40. November 2008 Maury Goodman ANL40 Possible Evolution of  13 10 0 5050 3030 2020 90% CL