1. The Business Cycle Chapter 10 Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin

2. 10-2 Macroeconomics The Great Depression was the springboard to modern macroeconomics. Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economic behavior, of the economy as a whole. LO-1

3. 10-3 A basic purpose of macroeconomic theory is to explain the business cycle. Macro policy tries to control the business cycle. We’ll see why President Obama was determined to keep the 2008-09 recession from turning into another depression. Macroeconomics LO-1

4. 10-4 Assessing Macro Performance There are three basic measures of macro performance: –Output (GDP) growth –Unemployment –Inflation LO-1

5. 10-5 GDP Recall that GDP is the total value of output (goods and services) produced in an economy during a given period of time. It is measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov), an agency within the Department of Commerce.www.bea.gov LO-1

6. 10-6 GDP Growth An economy’s potential output is reflected in its production possibilities curve: –Production possibilities–the alternative combinations of goods and services that could be produced in a given time period with all available resources and technology. When there is GDP growth, the production possibilities curve shifts outward. LO-1

7. 10-7 The Business Cycle The business cycle is the alternating periods of economic growth and contraction experienced by the economy. It shows the rise and fall of the economy over time. LO-1

8. 10-8 Figure 10.1

9. 10-9 The modern business cycle resembles a rollercoaster: –Output first climbs to a peak (high), then decreases. –After hitting a trough (low), the economy recovers, increasing again. The Business Cycle LO-1

10. 10-10 Real GDP Business cycles are measured by changes in real GDP: –Real GDP is the inflation-adjusted value of GDP or the value of output measured in constant prices. –Nominal GDP is measured in current prices. LO-1

11. 10-11 Erratic Growth Real GDP doesn’t increase in consistent, smooth increments, but in a pattern of steps, stumbles, and setbacks. LO-1

12. 10-12 Figure 10.2

13. 10-13 The Great Depression This was the most prolonged departure from our long-term growth path. Real GDP fell by 30% between 1929- 1933. The economy started to grow again in 1934. Total output declined once again in 1936-1937. LO-1

14. 10-14 The Great Depression Real GDP in 1939 was virtually the same as in 1929. GDP per capita was lower in 1939 than in 1929. LO-1

15. 10-15 World War II World War II greatly increased the demand for goods and services and ended the Great Depression. Output grew by 19% in 1942 and the economy reached full employment. LO-1

16. 10-16 Recession A recession is a decline in total output (real GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. It is a slump or downturn in the economy. We rely on the National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org) as our official designator of recessions.www.nber.org LO-1

17. 10-17 Table 10.1

18. 10-18 Recent Recessions 1981-1982: Lasted 16 months, with an unemployment rate of 10.8%, the highest since the 1930s. 1990-1991:A very brief recession, lasting only 8 months. 2001: A brief and mild recession occurred from March to November 2008-09: A significant decline in output along with failures in financial and real estate markets. LO-1

19. 10-19 Unemployment Unemployment is the inability of labor- force participants to find jobs. When output declines, jobs are eliminated. It is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov), an agency within the Department of Labor.www.bls.gov LO-2

20. 10-20 The Labor Force The labor force consists of everyone over the age of 16 who is actually working, plus all those who are not working but are actively seeking employment. LO-2

21. 10-21 Figure 10.3

22. 10-22 The Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labor force that is unemployed: Unemployment rate = number of unemployed number in labor force LO-2

23. 10-23 Figure 10.4

24. 10-24 The Full-Employment Goal There are good reasons for pursuing a low, but not a zero, unemployment rate. LO-2

25. 10-25 Seasonal Unemployment This is caused by seasonal changes: –An example is when school is out in the summer and teens are looking for summer jobs. LO-2

26. 10-26 Frictional Unemployment This is a brief period of unemployment associated with a job search. –Examples include students with marketable skills entering the work force after graduation, and workers in between jobs. LO-2

27. 10-27 Structural Unemployment This results from a mismatch between the skills of labor force participants and the skills needed by employers. –For example, when the “dot.com” boom burst, it was difficult for programmers and software engineers to find jobs. –Another example is skilled craft workers in the 2006-2008 housing contraction. LO-2

28. 10-28 Cyclical Unemployment When there are not enough jobs to go around due to downturns in the business cycle. This is unemployment due to a recession. –The Great Depression is the most striking example of cyclical unemployment. LO-2

29. 10-29 The Policy Goal To avoid as much cyclical and structural unemployment as possible. To try to achieve full employment. Full employment is the lowest rate of unemployment compatible with price stability: –It is estimated to be between 4 and 6 percent. LO-2

30. 10-30 Inflation The biggest fear as an economy reaches full employment is inflation. As an economy reaches its production possibilities, costs rise, pushing up prices. It is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov), an agency within the Department of Labor.www.bls.gov LO-3

31. 10-31 Relative versus Average Prices Inflation is an increase in the average level of prices, not a change in any specific price. Deflation is a decrease in the average level of prices of goods and services. The relative price is the price of one good in comparison with the price of other goods. LO-3

32. 10-32 Relative versus Average Prices It is possible for individual prices to rise or fall continuously without changing the average price level. Relative changes can occur in a period of stable average prices. Changes in relative prices are market signals which help reallocate resources in the economy. LO-3

33. 10-33 Redistributions Although inflation makes some people worse off, it makes other people better off. Inflation acts just like a tax, taking income or wealth from some people and giving it to others. LO-3

34. 10-34 Price Effects Nominal income is the amount of money income received in a given time period, measured in current dollars. Real income is income in constant dollars, or nominal income adjusted for inflation. LO-3

35. 10-35 Price Effects Not all prices rise at the same rate during an inflation. Not everyone suffers equally from inflation. The price increases associated with inflation redistribute real income LO-3

36. 10-36 Table 10.2

37. 10-37 Income Effects What looks like a price to a buyer looks like income to a seller. If prices are rising, incomes must be rising, too. LO-3

38. 10-38 Figure 10.5

39. 10-39 Wealth Effects Inflation may reduce the real value of your savings. LO-3

40. 10-40 Table 10.4

41. 10-41 Uncertainty The uncertainties of inflation may cause people to change their consumption, saving, or investment behavior. Fear of rapidly increasing prices may deter consumers from making long- term purchasing decisions. Firms may postpone construction or not finish new construction. LO-3

42. 10-42 Uncertainty Changing price levels may induce people to buy more goods and services now, before prices rise further. Consumers and producers may make foolish decisions, buying goods or services they don’t really need or want. LO-3

43. 10-43 Measuring Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI)–a measure (index) of changes in the average price of consumer goods and services. Inflation rate–the annual rate of increase in the average price level. LO-3

44. 10-44 Price-Stability and Policy Goal Price stability is the absence of significant changes in the average price level. –The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 establishes a goal for economic policy to hold the rate of inflation at under 3%. LO-4

45. 10-45 The Policy Goal Congress weighs the tradeoff between inflation and full employment. Zero percent inflation might harm the goal of full employment. LO-4

46. 10-46 Quality Improvements Because of quality improvements and new products, the CPI is not a perfect measure of inflation. Old products become better as a result of quality improvements. LO-5

47. 10-47 A 1955 television does not compare in quality to a television today. Today's automobiles cost more than Henry Ford’s Model T, but part of that price reflects the higher quality. Quality Improvements LO-5

48. 10-48 New Products The market basket used to measure the CPI changes. Products like computers did not exist in the 1972-73 market basket. DVD players did not exist in the 1987 CPI market basket. LO-5

49. End of Chapter 10